Author: Liu Jintu
2019 is a veritable autumn, and many Hong Kong people are sad.Looking forward to the next year, what is the trend of Beijing's Hong Kong policy?In view of the fact that the overall situation of China and the United States, Hong Kong's economy has fallen rapidly, and the election of political parties is bleak. Regardless of how tough in Beijing, Beijing must compromise in reality.
In the coming year in Beijing, it has comprehensively strengthened the control but received many restrictions
After the district council election, senior officials in Beijing talked about the situation in Hong Kong, and the tone was still very tough. For example, Wang Yi, a member of the State Councilor and Foreign Minister, recently said: "Resolutely cut off the black hands who attempted to create a" color revolution "in Hong Kong."Hong Kong affairs and interference in the external forces that interfere in China's internal affairs are resolutely struggle. "For another example, Zhang Xiaoming, director of the Hong Kong and Macau Office, published on the People's Japan newspapers that the Hong Kong has not yet completed the legislation of Article 23 of the Basic Law and has not set up a corresponding execution agency.One of the reasons is to establish and improve the legal system and implementation mechanism to maintain national security, and strengthen law enforcement forces, and have become the urgent task of the SAR government.These speeches have been previewed that Beijing will take measures to Hong Kong in the next year to comprehensively strengthen political and legal intervention and control.
However, Beijing's Hong Kong policy has been restricted by many practical factors.There are 3 more important constraints, which are described as follows:
(1) The U.S. Congress officially passed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democratic Acts. The president has signed it to take effect. In March 2020, the State Council will publish the first Hong Kong autonomy assessment report after the new law was issued.Continuous conflicts caused by the motion, as well as the problems of human rights and autonomy exposed there.China promises to purchase US $ 50 billion in US agricultural products, reaching the first phase of the trade war ceasefire agreement with the United States. In the next year, the second -stage economic and trade dispute negotiations are entered.However, if the situation in Hong Kong has deteriorated and public opinion and parliamentary pressure, Trump may consider sanctions in order to run for re -election.
(2) The Central Economic Conference in Beijing revealed that the downward pressure on China's economy will increase in the coming year, which means that growth and employment will slow down. The situation in Hong Kong is worse.If the measures for Hong Kong to trigger the conflict between the Hong Kong measures will seriously crack down on the fragile Hong Kong economy and replace the economic functions of Hong Kong with Shanghai, Shenzhen or Macau, which can be reached in the short term.
Jingying is committed to avoid worsening in the Hong Kong situation
(3) The political agent of Beijing in Hong Kong, including political appointment officials and members of the group, are all in a deep water, and the anti -repair storm has been impacted all over the body.The Legislative Council elections, as well as the subsequent chief executive committee elections, are facing a major crisis. If Beijing regards the mainstream public opinion of Hong Kong and refuses to independently investigate police -civilian conflicts, these agents will be punished.
In summary, the focus of Beijing's policy in the next year should be to avoid the deterioration of the situation in Hong Kong.
