The much -watched British election will be held tomorrow. Analysts pointed out that if they want to choose one of the Conservative and Labor candidates, young British young people are more inclined to elected the Labor Party of pro -European.In the 2017 election, 66%of voters from the age of 18 to 19 support the Labor Party, and only 19%support the Conservative Party.
Li Yanni sorting
Britain will hold a general election tomorrow. This is the third election of Britain in just five years. It is also the first Christmas month election in the past century, but it is more regarded as a Brexit election.Brexit is the main issue of this election. The conservative party of ruling shouts to get Get Brexit Done. The largest opposition Labor Party also promised to do a good Brexit Sorted within half a year.
Although the polls show that the conservative party led by Prime Minister Johnson is temporarily leading, but in recent years, young votes that have continued to grow in recent years are expected to be elected.Most young people in the UK support the European Union most, and they also tend to be left. Especially for young voters who still cannot vote in the 2017 elections, the Brexit topic is the most concerned.
Analysts pointed out that if they want to choose between the Conservative and the Labor candidate, young British young people are more inclined to be elected to the Labor Party of pro -European.In the 2017 election, 66%of voters from the age of 18 to 19 support the Labor Party, and only 19%support the Conservative Party.
According to statistics, 1.4 million of the registered voters registered in this election are under 25 years old, far more than 900,000 in the 2017 elections.The voting rate of young voters has always been low, but since 2010, it has been on the rise. It is expected that they will vote more enthusiastically on Thursday, which may be enough to trigger a youth earthquake and make the Conservative Party encounter Waterloo again.
May be ushered in the Hanging Council again
Johnson only replaced Treesa Middot; Mei came to power in July. Holding the election so soon was to resume most of the advantages of the parliament to break the continuous endless Brexit deadlock.However, in the case of many voters still hesitated, Britain may once again usher in the Hanging Council, causing the Brexit process to return to the origin.The only thing in this election can be certain is that the future of Britain will continue to be uncertain.
Election in advance hopes to break the ride out of Brexit
Britain should be held in May 2022.In fact, this election is related to Brexit.Holding the Brexit referendum was the promise made by then Prime Minister Cameron during the 2015 election campaign. He later fulfilled this commitment, but it was surprising that the British people chose in the referendum on June 23, 2016.Brexit, as a leader in Europe, resigned.
Treesa Middot; After the Election of the Mei Jing party accepted Cameron as Prime Minister, it launched Brexit procedures in March 2017 and held a Lightning Election in June.The bargaining ability in negotiations.
But Torresa Middot; Mei accidentally lost this political gambling, and the Conservative Party lost the majority of parliament. It must be supported by the Alliance Democratic Alliance of the Northern Ireland of the Alliance to continue to govern.Repeatedly rejected by the British Parliament.
Because the Brexit process was dragged again and again, Tresa Middot; Mei was forced to step down in July this year and handed the Prime Minister's stick to the leader of the Brexit Johnson.Johnson said that he led Brexit as scheduled as scheduled, but he was also frustrated in Parliament due to lack of most advantages.
In October this year, the British Parliament finally passed the Brexit agreement, but refused to accelerate the relevant legislative procedures.This caused Britain's unable to go out of Brexit on October 31. Johnson, who had not delayed Brexit, was forced to bow, and asked the European Union to postpone the Brexit period to January 31 next year.
In order to break the risk of Brexit, Johnson can only take the risk of repeating the risk of Treesa Middot; Mei that the original election was scheduled to be scheduled to be on December 12.
Johnson has no absolute victory
According to the polls, eight to 15 percentage points in the Leading Party of Conservative Party should win a majority of seats. However, after the results of the 2016 Brexit and 2017 elections that made people fall off their glasses, no one dared to assert that the Conservative Party would win.
Anthony Middot, head of politics and social investigation by polls of polls; Wales pointed out: No one can rule out accidents, especially after the accident results of the 2017 election, but on the surface, Johnson is going to victory.
This election is regarded as one of the most difficult predictions in the UK. The opposition also called on voters to leave the political tendency to vote to prevent the Conservative Party from winning.
BEST for Britain, which supports the second referendum, predicts that if the voters vote normally, the Conservative Party can easily win with 40 major advantages, but as long as there are 41,000 candidates from 36 swing constituencies,The situation that is most likely to defeat the conservative party candidate may reverse the situation.
Labor Party's direct winning probability is the lowest
According to the Guardian analysis, there are three possible endings in this election. Among them, the biggest possibility is that the Conservative Party won the majority of the parliament. Secondly, in order to generate the parliamentary parliament, the probability of the Labor Party's direct victory was the lowest.
When Johnson spoke on the last Sunday before the election, he reminded that the Conservative Party not to be complacent: We are now at the end of this competition. Of course, the position of the horse may still change.We haven't reached the end, don't forget what happened in 2017.This is an unpredictable election.
There are still new negotiations with the European Union with the Brexit transition period
If the Conservative Party has won a majority of seats, it is expected that Johnson will allow the parliament to pass the Brexit agreement reached with the European Union to realize the commitment to Brexit on January 31 on January 31.
However, the Brexit drama will not end.Britain must also conduct another round of negotiations with the EU's new relationship during the transition period by the end of 2020 to reach a new trade agreement.
Johnson has stated that it will not seek extended transition periods, but it is not easy to complete a trade agreement that usually consumes several years within a few months.
This means that the United Kingdom will soon usher in another Brexit crisis. At that time, the parliament will argue about the transition period or a comprehensive Brexit under a trade -free agreement.
If there is a suspension of parliament, this may open the path to the United Kingdom in the European Union.If Johnson formed a vulnerable new government, he may agree to hold a second referendum in order to allow the parliament to pass the Brexit agreement, allowing voters to make the final choice between the Brexit agreement and staying between the European Union.
If the Labor Party accidentally won, or under the support of the Scottish National Party (SNP) or the Liberal Democratic Party, the Brexit period will be postponed to negotiate a softer Brexit agreement with the European Union.
The Labor Party promised that within six months of the stage, the United Kingdom should pay the legal effect on the Brexit or stay in Europe for the legal effect of the United Kingdom.
The election results are expected to be released on Friday morning
The voting time for the British Parliament is from 7 am local time to 10 pm (SingaporeIt was expected to be released on Friday morning from 3 pm to 6 am on Friday.
There are a total of 650 seats in the British House of Commons. The election election is simple majority system, and political parties who have won half of the seats (at least 326 seats) will be able to be in power.
Without half of the seats, there will be a suspension of parliament.
If so, the best political parties can form a minority government, jointly govern with other political parties, or obtain other small parties support in the parliament in a way to reach a trust and support agreement.
