Author: Zhang Bingliang (Professor of Public Administration Research Research, Professor of Public Administration of Hong Kong University of Education, former Director of Transport and Housing Bureau)
After the results of the district council election were announced, some foreign media described the Battle for Hong Kong.
Why is a storm of a fugitive regulations that lead to so tearing today and like a civil war?The government and related parties should be missed, and it is difficult to blame.
In fact, after a little political tactics, when you know that on June 9th (claimed to be), millions of people came to protest on the street, the overall situation has changed. It should have stopped erosion, guidance of people's indignation, and resolving crisis, instead of only referring to external power.Facing the missing side, the impact of the brave and martial arts demonstrators alone with the system, completely ignoring the need for the strategy of sunshine (relative to the North Wind) strategy.
From that moment, they gradually lost Hong Kong.Single -dimensional stop violence and chaos, anti -violence and hatred upgrades and spread.Audit resistance has adopted a strategy of blooming everywhere, and the police danced also strengthened the intensity of riot in each district. Therefore, opposing police violence and fighting against tyranny replaced anti -repair cases as the main axis of civil resistance since July.In the community, the scene of large and small conflicts became a new field where civilians and students were further radical.
This also explains why this district parliamentary election, although the anti -government (so -called non -construction) candidate got less than 60%of the total votes, the proportion may not be disparate (57%pairs of 41%), but each district can occupy the majority most.The pattern of changing the world in the 17th district (the islands of the islands are not fell because of the of course of the pro -establishment).
There is a surface tsunami that obtains about 80 % of the seats. The voting rate is far higher than expected. It is a key factor. Some scholars estimate that if only 60 % instead of 70 %, the establishment of the system may have the opportunity to maintain a lot of seats, although the non -construction system is non -construction system, although the non -construction systemIt will still be more than half.Now the reversal of the district, in the display of most public opinion, the young resistance of the clear banner of ratings, does not take care of whether there is a community service development. Such a great reversal is a big problem for the government.It must be the people's change!
Under the continuous upgrade of violence, the Huthek and African supporters of the Pan -people's in the people do not cut with the brave martial arts, which can still be interpreted as a strategic use of the courage.Why does the public opinion reversal that there is no development of the system?To put it bluntly, it is because many citizens in the community have a hate that the government's dissatisfaction with the government surpass its violence. They want to punish those who are in power.If the master still can't see this kind of people, he will live in another parallel time and space.The incident, as Hong Qingtian wrote in the Japanese version in November 29. The right (seemingly) pair of (seemingly) became a systematic comprehensive error.
It is a good thing for Hong Kong to use Ballot (voting) instead of Bullet, because most citizens agree to return to the system to solve the problem.After many months of turmoil, the people's hearts are both seeking change and quietness. They are waiting to wait and see if the government can adjust its thinking strategies, create social dialogue reconciliation, rebuild mutual trust, and carry out reforms. Otherwise, another opportunity will miss (Note)EssenceIt also depends on whether the warriors understand whether they know how to advance and retreat after taking the legitimacy given by the citizens, and seek political way in the system, otherwise the water can carry the boat.
Society must come out of the state of war.All parties in the war have been identified as justice and fighting, so institutional violence, rebellion, hatred, etc. are absolutely, sacred, life is not cherished, and human nature can be distorted.The little devil was released, just like the description of the Will of the Flies Lord of the Flies, which was described by the William Golding masterpiece. In the end, it was the Hong Kong value and humanity that all parties claimed to be guarded.Citizens who are unwilling to tear, violence, and self -destruction in Hong Kong must speak up regardless of the color.
What's more important is how Beijing interprets the complex situation in Hong Kong.Western countries led by the United States intervene in the current crisis of Hong Kong, add more unstable international political game elements.There has always been a naked utilitarian computing behind the rhetoric of the great power. There is an important difference between Hong Kong and the anti -government fighting movement in other cities in recent months.State (West is regarded as a threatened autocracy national capitalist system).
In the Obama era, the United States has made adjustments to the defense and foreign strategy of returning to Asia -Pacific. To Trump ’s main administration, it is also determined to be the Indo -Pacific strategy, and his finger points to China.The trade war launched by him is just the surface, and the back is a matching, comprehensive system battle.At the request of the United States, European, South Korea, South Korea, Australia, and even some South Asian and Southeast Asian countries have obviously returned. It is not like maintaining a balanced positioning between the United States and China in the past.The New Cold War has begun.
The emergence of the Hong Kong issue from the Chinese Movement in 2014 was caused by the central government's blind spots on Hong Kong policy and the political and social structural contradictions of Hong Kong.The international climate change is related to.Foreign power has never been fermented by internal power, and the more chaotic Hong Kong is, the more beneficial to the United States to contain China.
In 1992, the United States passed the Hong Kong Policy Law in order to cooperate with the one country, two systems, and was betted in China at that time.The opposition power constitutes part of its strategy of new India.The United States has always regarded Taiwan for its protective place. It is now intended to incorporate Hong Kong into its protective umbrella, reflecting some critics that the China -US common governance intention is reflected.
Beijing will not be unaware of the deployment of the United States, so the crisis of Hong Kong is qualitative into national sovereignty and security issues (the so -called color revolution).Under the disadvantage of the two -system friction Japanese drama and the rapid decline in mutual trust, central officials are worried that Hong Kong people (especially the younger generation) have lost their national identity and voted for external forces.Why gratitude to the United States for intervention.
Beijing is afraid of losing Hong Kong.But the more anxiety, if you only increase the control of Hong Kong, and increase the internal contradictions of some people into the contradiction between the enemy and me, it will be counterproductive and fall into the political circle of others.In solid, the central government must comprehensively and pragmatically review the gains and losses of the two systems and two systems since the return of the return.Why have it been unable to return to most Hong Kong people for so many years?This is about how to interpret the minds of Hong Kong people, and the two identities (national, local) and "two existentialism" (two existentialism "(freedom, rule of law, system and lifestyle) under the coexistence and mutual benefit of coexistence and mutual benefit.
After returning, Jiang Enzhu, the first director of the China United Nations Office, once said that Hong Kong is a difficult book. If you do n’t know how to understand, deal with, and appreciate the heterogeneity of Hong Kong, it is necessary to converge, which drives the original Chinese tendenciesThe discussion became resistant, the younger generation of self -determination, separation of emotions, so the central government reacted more tough, and the vicious cycle of the prediction of self -verification, Hong Kong will not be able to bear it and loses its due glory.
Shan Yu wants to come to the wind, Hong Kong is at another political turning point. The prospects depends on how the main gamers can catch the disabled chess.
Note: In November, a dialogue on dialogue conducted by the Hong Kong Asia -Pacific Institute commissioned by the Youth Think Tank MWYO showed that the dialogue of all parties must be done in a suitable social atmosphere, and 76%of the respondents believed that earlier (September (September in September (September (September (September (September (SeptemberOn the 26th) Lin Zhengte's first community dialogue did not help ease the social situation.
