Zhang Jingwei
Under the haze of trade protectionism and unilateralism, multilateral free trade negotiations are in trouble.
However, the Asia -Pacific region has taken a key step.Earlier this month (November 4), 15 member states leaders of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) issued a statement, emphasizing that the end of the 15 countries ended all text negotiations and essentially all market access negotiations, and was committed to signing agreement next year.After a long seven -year negotiation, there was still a regret of sixteen lacks at this meeting. Because India emphasized that RCEP did not concern the core interests of the country, it withdrew from RCEP.
Despite the less important developing countries of India, RCEP is still the world's largest free trade zone.After all, this region not only contains 10 countries in Asia, but also two global economic and trade powers in China and Japan, as well as important economies such as South Korea and Australia.
Whether RCEP signed the contract as scheduled next year, whether it is approved by the legislative agency of member states, there are still variables.It is also concerned whether India returns to RCEP. After all, RCEP, which lacks India's second largest country, is not sound.
However, although RCEP has the leadership of Asians, China is also actively promoted, and the positions of important economies such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and other important economies are positive, highlighting the acceleration of East Asian economic and trade integration.Objectively, it is also caused by US trade protectionism and unilateralism.After all, China, Japan, South Korea and even India are the targets of the US trade war.Therefore, Japan, which is not very positive for RCEP, also changed its position.It is more worth mentioning that before that, Japan increased its participation in the multilateral trading system at all levels.
After the United States withdrawn from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), Japan led other 10 countries to continue to promote the TPP, and it completed the signing of the reduction version of TPP on March 8, 2018.(CPTPP).On December 30, 2018, CPTPP officially took effect.Although CPTPP puts on holding 20 TPP projects (11 of which are intellectual property protection), it is still regarded as the highest level of multilateral free trade agreement.
The EU and Japan's Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) also officially took effect on February 1 this year, and the world's largest free trade zone was born.Japan -Europe EPA covers a total of more than 600 million people. GDP (GDP) accounts for 28%of the total world economy, and the total trade volume accounts for nearly 40%of the total global trade.
From CPTPP to EPA of European Japan to RCEP, Japan has achieved great results in the global multilateral free trade mechanism.It can also be said that in terms of global multilateral free trade mechanisms, Japan has played a positive role and has also become the biggest beneficiary of the multilateral free trade mechanism.
Japan's positive changes in RCEP's position have also provided China with useful inspiration.Can China join CPTPP?
This is an intriguing realistic proposition.TPP excludes China is an open announcement of the Obama era, which is to exclude China's right to formulate global trade rules.In addition, Japan also opposes China to join TPP, so that Japan can use the United States to maintain the second child in TPP.Of course, because the content of TPP negotiations does not meet China's core interests, China is also unwilling to participate in this US -led and Japanese geopolitical organization.
The United States gave up and Japan took over. Although the TPP became a comprehensive and progressive TPP, without the leadership of the United States, the influence of decentralized CPTPP greatly reduced.As the largest economy in Japan, although it has certain leadership capabilities, it also has to pay corresponding responsibilities.Therefore, although the shrinking TPP is not a chicken rib, the influence has severely depreciated.The depreciated CPTPP also has a positive effect.
The first is that Japan uses CPTPP to be crowded or rejected China's willingness to be reduced.The EPA EPA in the European Japan and Japan's positive attitude towards RCEP reflect that US trade protectionism and unilateralism have forced Japan to participate in more multilateral free trade mechanisms with a more open attitude.The improvement of Sino -Japanese relations and Japan's attitude towards RCEP highlight the changes in the gentleman and leopard of Prime Minister Abe, so it will not exclude China to join CPTPP.
Second, China has always adhered to an open position on TPP.During the Obama era, the United States or Japan, TPP was originally a tool for curbing China, and China had no chance to join.The CPTPP promoted by Japan was originally to re -attract the United States to join, but in the case of Trump's exclusion of the multilateral trading mechanism, CPTPP can only be carried out, because CPTPP also reflects Japan's value.
It is impossible to join the United States, allowing China to join it, and its influence does not belong to the original TPP.Although the total amount of GDP is not as good as the TPP joined by the United States, the TPP added by China will be stronger than the United States in terms of total trade and population.
Third, China joins it, prompting China to meet the TPP standards, such as in terms of labor standards and intellectual property protection, in line with the TPP standards.In terms of tariff reduction, China will also achieve a win -win consensus with 11 countries including Japan.If China used to have active or passive exclusion of TPP, and now that after the baptism of the Sino -US trade war, China not only has the ability and confidence to accept the high standards of TPP, but also reflect China's more openness by joining the TPP.From the Belt and Road Initiative to RCEP to the two sessions, China is shaping the role of new global leaders.
In fact, the RCEP of the 15th countries and the CPTPPs in the 11 countries cross each other. The addition of China to join the CPTPP can become the lubricant of the two major free trade mechanisms. In the future, the two major free trade areas can be integrated.Therefore, from Australia to New Zealand, China does not exclude China to join CPTPP.Therefore, China's joining CPTPP will not only resurrect the TPP full blood, but also help promote the construction of the Asia -Pacific Free Trade Zone in the true sense.
Of course, RCEP still has variables, and whether CPTPP accepts China to become TPP is also unknown.Regional integration is also a complex interest game, not to mention that the United States will not let China sit in the Asia -Pacific region.Therefore, whether China can stir up RCEP and TPP should not only be agreed by relevant member states, but also pass the United States.
The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society
Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute
Visit researcher
If China used to have active or passive exclusion of TPP, and now that after the baptism of the Sino -US trade war, China not only has the ability and confidence to accept the high standards of TPP, but also reflect China's more openness by joining the TPP.From the Belt and Road Initiative to RCEP to the two sessions, China is shaping the role of new global leaders.
