Written article: Zheng Rui
When will the Sino -US first -stage trade agreement be reached and when and where to sign, it is already the most concerned topic for the relationship between the two countries and even the global market.
Earlier, China and the United States held high -level economic and trade consultations in Washington, USA in October. Both countries said that they had reached a consensus on the first phase of the agreement, and both sides released a good signal in economic and trade. China has promised the purchase of American agricultural products again.
However, the situation today is that the first phase of the Sino -US dollar that Trump's expectation after the last round of negotiations is impossible to sign the first stage agreement at the APEC summit in Chile.It may even be dragged until next year.It is obviously not as simple as the APEC summit. What happened between China and the United States?
Sino -US negotiations will be trapped again?
After the Sino -US negotiations in October, Liu He, Deputy Prime Minister of the State Council of China and the leader of the Sino -US economic and trade consultation, and the US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasurer Steve Mnuchin twice twiceThe official call is November 1st and November 16th.
Through Chinese official descriptions of these two calls, in the second call, including the Minister of Commerce of China Zhongshan or the President of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang, and others will no longer be listed in the participating list, and the results of the call will not be mentioned.Two words.
Since then, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China said at a routine conference that the Sino -US economic and trade team will continue to communicate closely.In addition, the Ministry of Commerce did not give more information.
According to the US media Bloomberg, Liu He said in an event on November 20 that he was still cautious and optimistic about the Sino -US agreement, but was confused about the requirements of the United States.If the report is true, Liu He is still planning to invite the US negotiation team to visit China, which shows that the two countries also need to face face -to -face consultations.
At the same time, the US official statement of the trade agreement tends to be cautious.US President Donald Trump visited the factory of Apple Inc. on November 20. During the period, he said that he was not ready to sign a trade agreement because China did not step up in negotiations, which confirmed to a certain extent to a certain extent.Sino -US negotiations may encounter new bottlenecks.
It was reported on November 19 that US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in an interview that the US -China trade negotiations are currently in a fine -tuning stage, and the two parties need details.
The United States has an unclear attitude towards the United States on December 15 on December 15 to impose tariffs on Chinese consumer goods worth about $ 156 billion on December 15.
Earlier, Larry Kudlow, the economic adviser of Mnuchin, Ross, and Trump, had all stated that the Sino -US first phase agreement might be signed in November.It has been 6 weeks since China and the United States announced that the consensus has reached consensus, and the process has obviously delayed.
The crux lies in tariffs
Judging from the official statement of China and the United States on the consultation, the Sino -US signing agreement is not as smooth as expected.Essence
In terms of specific content, the symptoms of China -US negotiations are obviously at the point of retracting the additional tariffs.On November 14, the Ministry of Commerce of China stated that the cancellation of tariffs on tariffs was an important condition for China and the United States to reach an agreement.
Since then, the US media has continuously revealed the information disclosed by sources in the White House, that is, Trump and the U.S. team believed that if tariffs were canceled, the content of the first phase of the agreement needs to be expanded, so there are various statements that the United States has made new requirements for agreements to China.In short, Trump hopes that China will make greater concessions to cancel the tariffs that have been added.
Regardless of whether this information is true, the current negotiations of China and the United States will inevitably follow the conditions of canceling tariffs.The behind this means an important change in the psychology of the United States.
If the two parties agree to reach a trade agreement in the form of staged stages, the dominance of China's negotiating thinking, then what conditions, what kind of rhythm, and large extent to cancel tariffs in China and the United States, then the United States has to start facing China in facing China is in the place in China.The sign of the core appeal during negotiations.
Since the start of the trade war, the United States once opened a lion, and made multiple demands to China in terms of intellectual property, technology transfer, market opening, agricultural product procurement, etc., and used the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Justice to sanction Chinese enterprises as a threat.The United States rarely responds to the bottom line of China that has repeatedly emphasized the trade agreement.
Perhaps, in the year and a half of the trade war, the United States has always believed that the maximum intensity pressure can completely change China's unfair trade behavior, and has not carefully examined any Chinese demands.Even on the issue of tariffs, it was reported last year that the United States demanded that the power to impose punitive tariffs on China after the trade agreement can see its power of power.And now this situation has changed completely.
Sawning each other is not necessarily a bad thing
Talking between China and the United States has repeatedly repeatedly reached a consensus on the first time that the trade agreement has been repeatedly reached.However, looking back at the game of multiple rounds in the past, the two sides have actually taken a lot of steps.
In May last year, the United States teared the consensus consensus not to fight the trade war, and China had later understood the various demands of the United States in negotiations and confirmed its own bottom line.In turn, the United States also needs to take the time to consider the conditions of China's signing agreement. From this perspective, this delay is necessary.
China has already proposed that the text of the agreement must be balanced, and the aggressive limit from the United States threatens a text that is balanced and the content is balanced.Today, how to cancel the tariffs on tariffs is of great significance to the final balance of the agreement and the foundation of the continued negotiations between the two parties.
