Source: Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times
Recently announced the results of the investigation of large -scale fund managers of the Bank of America in November showing that Brexit has not been listed into the top five risk events in the United Kingdom.The Brexit issue is not worth it.But is this really the case?
Looking back at the end of the Brexit referendum in 2016, the former Prime Minister D. Cameron has left; known for its toughness of politics, the plum (T. May), known as the contemporary iron lady,The plan is also difficult to appease the political forces of the party and outside the party, and it stepped down at the end of July this year; in order to not repeat the former mistakes, B. Johnson, who replaced, expressed the eagle position.Withdraw from the EU regardless of the cost, and promise to complete the goal at the end of October.
Subsequently, on the eve of the British Parliament at the end of August this year, Johnson announced that the assault announced that Congress had stopped operating for 5 weeks since September, and said that No Deal Exit was also an acceptable Brexit alternative.The chaos and disorder implicit under Johnson's governance lingered in the minds of investors in the market.In the investigation of large -scale fund managers of the Bank of America in October, no agreement Brexit has become a tail risk for many investors.
However, under the assembly of the opposition party, Congress first revoked Johnson's decision through judicial lawsuits, and then disconnected the possibility of the government's choice of unrequited Brexit by legislation, and then used a procedural means to delay the legislation of the Brexit agreement.In the end, Johnson could only submit an application to the European Union, saying that the United Kingdom could not complete the Brexit agreement legislation on time, and requested the EU to delay the point of time.
At this point, the dilemma faced by Johnson has been exactly the same as Mey, and after this dramatic development of this forced rest and resumption, investors seem to have enough reasons to believe that under the circumstances where the British parties are still opposed and differentiated, in the case of severe differentiation, in the case of severe differentiation.The foreseeable future, the chaos without agreeing Brexit seems to be no longer on the curtain of risk radar.There are two reasons: First of all, the British politicians have repeatedly forced political and economic pressure and have to compromise with the European Union on the Brexit negotiation table. Mey and Johnson are all.Since the negotiations on the Brexit, in order to ensure that they can continue to maintain a certain degree of economic and trade exchanges after breaking up with the European Union, Britain basically agreed with all the conditions required by the European Union.For example, after Brexit, we continue to afford the social welfare of EU citizens in Britain, and also agree to continue to bear some of the EU's budget expenditure, and even willing to abandon some sovereignty in North Ireland so that the Brexit agreement can be successfully completed.
After all, as the evaluation report issued by the British government at the end of 2018, the British relying on the products produced by the European Union deepened. Once the trade agreement cannot be finalized with the EU, the essentials for people's livelihood and other people's livelihoods will be short of shortage.crisis.In the fact that Meiyi and Johnson are well known, there is no agreement on Brexit.The investors who understand this naturally will not be frightened by political words, and think that the so -called Brexit is just withdrawing from the EU on the legal and political level, and continues to stay in Europe at the economy level.
Secondly, the majority of political parties who oppose the Brexit against the Brexit in the United Kingdom have an absolute majority, so that investors believe that no agreement will not come.Under the counterattack against the forces, Johnson had to choose to delay the Brexit and restart the Congress to re -election to try to break the obstacles set by the opposition department.However, recent polls show that although the Conservative Party can still get the most elected seats after the Congress, the number of seats will be slippery than before the election, and the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democratic Party, which are required to stay in Europe, will increase after the selection.Essence
However, it is worth noting that although the debate between the British domestic parties has caused the Brexit agreement to be difficult to produce, it must continue to apply for a delay in the Brexit and form a disguise.back.
In fact, the current extension of Brexit is just a large limit for Brexit, including French President E. Macron and other EU political leaders, which has long expressed inadvertently to continue to postpone Britain's Brexit.It means that in the case of the unsolved controversy of Brexit in the United Kingdom, the result of repeated delay will be closer to the endless agreement.As for the British side, even though the proportion of political parties who did not agree with the Brexit were mostly, the results of the general election poll were the same, but there was no specific consensus on the future British and European relations within these political parties, and it also destined that these parties could not cooperate together after the election.
At the same time, although the Labor Party, which is the largest opposition party, recognizes Brexit in essence, because the Labor Party regards Brexit as an issue of internal affairs, its position is uncertain, and there is no way to get the trust of other political parties.On the other hand, although the Liberal Democratic Party and the Scottish National Party have demanded the cancellation of Brexit, the starting point of the two parties is completely different. Under certain conditions, the Scottish National Party is even willing to support Brexit.Therefore, because the opposition party camp cannot condense a Brexit route (including staying in Europe) that is different from the Conservative Party, so that as a Brexit without a negotiating end point for Brexit, it still stands in the future.Essence
To put it, after more than three years of foolishness in the past three years, investors have identified the nominal hard -regulating Eur (Hard Brexit; including no -Agreement Brexit) is just a vivid political slogan.One day, just like the loud warning of the sheep children in a fable story.However, market participants must also keep in mind that the arrival of the wild wolf is not controlled by the sheep children. When the Brexit procedure really starts, it is doomed to the coming of the wild wolf.At that time, the Brexit Brexit will once again become a major risk of market concerns.
