Yu Zeyuan: Lin Yifu and Fergusons gambling contract

Early

Ji Yan Chunqiu

Can the Chinese economy surpass the United States after 20 years?Lin Yifu, Dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute of Peking University, and Niall Ferguson, a senior researcher at Harvard University and Stanford University, gambled at 200,000 yuan (about S $ 40,000).

This gambling took place at the first session of the 20th World Apocalypse forum held at Seoul, South Korea on September 25.Lin Yifu and Ferguson launched fierce debates on issues such as Sino -US trade and the rise of China.

After the rise, the two simply gambled the economic prospects of China and the United States.Lin Yifu believes that the Chinese economy will exceed the United States in 20 years. He is willing to bet with Ferguson for two million US dollars (about S $ 2.7 million) for this. I want to borrow money to bet, because I believe what I say.

Ferguson believes that Lin Yifu's prediction will not be realized, but he can't bet on $ two million. I dare to bet that China will not surpass the United States. Professor Lin Yifu.I gamble with you, let's make a step, 200,000 yuan.It is impossible.

The two finally agreed to bet at 200,000 yuan.

Lin Yifu is a well -known economist in China and former senior vice president of the World Bank. Ferguson is a famous scholar in the international political and financial field. In 2004, he was rated as one of the 100 people influenced by Times Weekly in 2004.The two of them can not simply understand it as a fight, but more are to show their confidence in judging themselves by gambling.

However, Lin Yifu and Ferguson's point of view are indeed opposite, and there are even many smells of theory, so that the two sides ended the debate at the end of the way that the two sides did not hesitate to bet on the identity of scholars.

In the dialogue, Ferguson questioned and criticized many methods of China.He acknowledged that China has achieved the most amazing industrial revolutionary achievements and economic growth in history, but it is pointed out that China has adopted a lot of improper means, such as large -scale intellectual property theft, spy activities against Western companies and continuous cyber warfare, and world trade.Organizational (WTO) rules, complaints, control currency to prevent the appreciation of RMB, exclude Western companies outside the Chinese market through tariffs, and other non -tariff barriers.

Ferguson's criticism is exactly the same as the accusations of the American eagle party, and Lin Yifu refuted it one by one.Lin Yifu emphasized that the United States accused China of the transfer of compulsory technology and violating the WTO rules, etc., all unable to withstand the allegations without evidence of factual inspection.As for problems such as the huge trade deficit between China and the United States, it is also caused by the structural problems of the United States, while the United States habitually blame the problem in other countries.

Regarding China's economic prospects, Lin Yifu acknowledged that due to the uncertainty of trade conflicts, China also faced a certain periodic and external downward pressure, but he was confident that China could achieve about 6%of growth becauseThere are still a lot of investment space, industrial upgrade space, and environmental space in China to further improve space and urbanization space.China also has enough resources to invest, whether it is in terms of financial space, high savings or rich foreign exchange reserves.

Ferguson pointed out that although he does not think that the US economy will exceed 2%next year, the United States will not decline.At the same time, it is quite difficult to surpass the United States.Because of the population structure, China will fall into a middle income trap.I have not only made predictions on next year and the next 10 years.In the short term, China is dominant, and in the long run, the United States will dominate.

Lin Yifu and Ferguson betting against the two values and development concepts of China and the United States.With the continuous increase in China's rise in recent years, this kind of opposition has become fierce, and it has spread from official to academic circles and social levels.

As for the gambling contract between the two, whether the Chinese economy can surpass the United States and when the United States can surpass the United States, many international institutions and scholars have made predictions in recent years.For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a report last July that by 2030, China may become the world's largest economy; HSBC (HSBC) research report released in September last year also predicts that in 2030, China's GDP (GDP (GDP (GDP (GDP) will reach $ 26 trillion, and the US GDP will be about $ 25.2 trillion.

In other words, if the economic aggregate alone may not have to wait 20 years, Lin Yifu and Ferguson's gambling will be seen.

Of course, whether China's economic aggregate can surpass the United States is whether China can properly respond to increasing external and internal challenges to ensure that the momentum of development is not interrupted.This can only be proved by time.