Shen Qingqing: The trade war is not a dispute over the Sino -US model

Source: Haiguo Tuzhi Research Institute

Author: Shen Qingqing

Recently, China and the United States have held a new round of negotiations, which has made the wind tightly trade war, and has sent a signal of the retail.On October 11, Trump announced that China Vice Premier Liu He went to Washington to negotiate. The two countries obtained the first stage of agreement.The war is temporarily eased, and although the written agreement of white paper and black words still takes several weeks to finalize, and whether the verbal commitment of both sides can be implemented on the paper is still unknown.

Many people think that the long -term discussion of trade friction between China and the United States is in the final analysis of the model dispute. This view is that the political system and ideology between China and the United States have exacerbated the United States' anxiety about China's threat.On the one hand, in the face of the rise of emerging countries with different political systems, the American mentality can no longer be stretched, and China is regarded as a heterogeneous; on the other hand, with the rise of China and the continuous challenge to the US international status, the United States has become increasingly in the United States.Worried that China will overthrow the existing international order dominated by the United States and establish a new new international economic order with Chinese characteristics.In fact, it is extremely irrational to raise the opposition between China and the United States to ideology or even civilized conflict, and it is not conducive to our correct understanding of Sino -US relations.The current Sino -US trade friction is far from rising to the so -called model dispute, which is still just a struggle for unilateralism and multilateralism, trade protectionism and trade liberalization.The United States tried to suppress China's rise by suppressing, and China also made its own counterattack in order to win its own development space.

First of all, from the perspective of China, the so -called Chinese model cannot deviate from China from the international system led by the United States. The degree of mutual dependence between the two parties is often positive as the deepening of globalization.Today's international system and order are established by the United States. China has developed, expanded, and enjoys the dividends brought by globalization. It is the beneficiary of the existing international order.Separation, other countries and international acts cannot bear the price of systematic division.China is deeply influenced by the United States in many aspects. The dependence on the United States is especially reflected in the science and technology level. The academic database Nature INDEX2018 shows that Sino -US scientists have written thousands of papers each year, far exceeding the science of other countries in sciences in other countries.Number of cooperation.It shows that the academic circles of both sides are closely studying projects, frequent data exchange and close connection.In addition, the degree of mutual dependence of Sino -US economic relations exceeds any period of history.There are conflicts of interest at the level of bilateral trade, but they have significant common interests at the global level of response to nuclear diffusion, climate change, and non -traditional security.

Secondly, from the perspective of the United States, the US model almost affects all countries in the world in the wave of globalization. It will not be suppressed by it.Suppress.The same road takes Japan as an example. Japan is a Western country. It has the same system, ideology and model as the United States, but it is also suppressed by the United States because Japan's economic strength has launched a challenge to the United States, prompting the United StatesInternational economic interests.Different roads take Vietnam as an example. Vietnam and China have basically the same ideology, models, systems and roads, and belong to the Confucian cultural circle.Although the history of Vietnam and the United States has the history of Vietnam, the establishment of the comprehensive partnership of Yuemei is now established, and there is no strategic competition and suppression.According to the latest polls of Pew Research Center, due to the trade war, Americans believe that the economic relationship between China and the United States is not good. In these economic concerns, the adverse view of China has reached 14 years in the past 14 yearsThe highest level.Today, 60%of Americans have negative views on China, higher than 47%in 2018.Interestingly, although most Americans think that China is an economic threat, more Americans still think that the United States is the world's leading economic power.Therefore, from this perspective, the essence of competition between China and the United States is not a model dispute, but a dispute between the dominant power of interest conflicts.

Curbing the rise of emerging powers is a consistent strategy in the United States. Therefore, the differences between the national conditions between the two countries are not necessarily the main cause of tension and conflict. The so -called model dispute is just an over -interpretation.