Zhu Ying
On October 11th, the 13th round of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations ended, and China and the United States reached the first phase of the agreement. The US suspension increased its tariffs worth $ 250 billion in Chinese goods from 25%to 30%on October 15.U.S. President Trump met with Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council of the State Council of the White House, and then achieved staged results in Sino -US trade negotiations.There are four highlights of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations this time:
First, the contradictions of each other before the negotiations are flying all over the sky, true and false.On October 7, Bloomberg quoted sources as saying that Chinese officials had a demand for Trump to reach a wide range of agreements, and their interests were getting lower and lower.Chinese officials in the last few weeks told US officials visiting Beijing that the scope of issues they are willing to discuss have been significantly reduced.
On October 8th, the South China Morning Post revealed that the Chinese delegation plans to shorten the residence time in Washington. The date of leaving Washington may be after the end of the negotiations on the 12th to the 11th.Subsequently, the White House trading consultant Navarro denied the relevant report and called it fake news.
Does the impeachment case adversely affect Trump's economic and trade negotiation position?Harry Middot, a trading expert at Peterson Institute of International Economic Research Institute; Harv Booles said: This has gained a huge shadow for government handling of foreign affairs and promoting the bills.Blancott, an expert in China, a China think tank strategy and international research center, pointed out that the Chinese leadership interpreted the impeachment investigation as the softening or dispersion of Trump's position.
The results of the negotiations show that the impeachment case does not soften Trump's position in economic and trade negotiations, but it is flexible.The topic of negotiations has indeed narrowed, and does not involve sensitive structural changes.Liu He and his party were planned as planned, and the news of the South China Morning Post was obviously creating the atmosphere of negotiation.
Second, the United States has reached unprecedented levels of pressure on China and does not break.In the context of false news, the United States has unprecedented pressure on China.The United States waves human rights sticks to China. One is that Trump associated Hong Kong issues with trade negotiations.The second is that the US Department of Commerce includes 28 Chinese public security institutions and companies on the blacklist of trade.Third, Secretary of State Pompeo announced that it has implemented visa restrictions on Chinese officials involving issues involving Xinjiang.These pressures should be regarded as a response to the messages scattered.
Before the negotiations, the United States had revealed pressure on China's financial field.Bloomberg first reported on September 27 that officials were discussing all investment in mainland China in mainland China.On September 28, Bloomberg also quoted an official of the US Department of Finance that the United States has not plans to prevent Chinese companies from being listed on the US Stock Exchange.The meaning of this looming information is clear.
On October 8th, Bai Bangrui, a part -time consultant of the White House, said that if the US -China trade high -level negotiations cannot reach an agreement, the United States may upgrade the behavior of other fields.What are other fields?According to media reports in early September, Bai Bangrui said that it may include more targeted measures. For example, if a Chinese company is listed on the US Stock Exchange, the United States can cancel the exemption required by the audit and financial disclosure.This may lead to potential delisting companies like Alibaba and Tencent.
Facing the US pressure, the Chinese government responded calmly and always grasped the initiative of negotiations. The official media did not set off a public opinion offensive that criticized US trade bullying.Under the pressure of China's economic downturn, in the context of similar Samsung mobile phone production lines, China's economic and trade relations with the United States have occupied an extremely important position in China's external economic relations.This is the national mission that Deputy Prime Minister Liu He is tolerate.
Third, both China and the United States need to reach an agreement.The United States has always insisted on demanding structural changes in China, and Trump has always claimed to reach a comprehensive agreement.In May 2019, Liu He once stated that tariffs are the starting point of the trade dispute between the two parties. If an agreement is to be reached, the tariff must be canceled.The results of the negotiations show that there will be a concession of China and the United States, and there will be a part of the results of a part of the agreement.
Before the economic and trade negotiations, China released many positive signals to the United States: First, increase the opening of the financial sector.On July 20, China announced that 11 financial industries have further opened policies and measures.According to media reports on October 4, the US Payment Agency PayPal was allowed to enter the Chinese market.China announced on October 11 that starting from January 1, 2020, the three types of companies: futures, funds, and securities have canceled the restrictions on foreign -funded shares.It must be pointed out that the timetable for these open measures is advanced.
Second, China has increased the purchase of American agricultural products in a short time.The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed that as of October 3, the net sales volume of soybeans in China was 1.18 million tons, and pork sales hit a record high, including the 18810 tons of transportation this year and 123362, which will be shipped in 2020Ton.
Third, starting on October 10, Chinese official media suddenly cooled down the NBA incident.The New York Times quoted three reporters as saying that the editor of Chinese official news agencies informed reporters not to hype the NBA incident to avoid overheating the topic.Subsequently, the NBA incident faded out of the top 10 Weibo hot search list led by the Chinese government.
The United States actively responds to the goodwill released by the Chinese government, and no longer insists on reaching a comprehensive agreement containing structural changes.On October 11, Trump said that China has made progress in purchasing U.S. agricultural products, monetary agreements, opening up of China ’s financial services, compulsory technology transfer, and intellectual property rights. China will purchase US $ 40 billion to 50 billion U.S. agricultural products.
After meeting with Liu He Liu He, he said to reporters in the South Work Lake in the White House: This will be the biggest transaction to farmers in history.Some agreements reached by China and the United States are strong support for Trump's ticket warehouse.This should be the biggest benefit of Trump from this negotiation.
Fourth, the prospects of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations are still difficult to optimistic, hooking without taking off.The United States did not promise China to cancel all tariffs on additional tariffs, but just suspended the preparations to add tariffs.Trump did not decide whether to give up a new tariff on December 15th, and Littichzer said at the time of Trump's meeting with Liu He, saying that it left enough time to consider China.The United States has realized that it cannot solve the problems of Sino -US economic and trade with tariffs alone. To this end, the United States is brewing finance and other aspects. Of course, tariffs are also seriously harming the Chinese economy.
It takes a few weeks to complete the agreement reached by China and the United States. Trump hopes to sign this agreement during the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit.We hope that Sino -US economic and trade relations will be hooked instead of taking off.
The author is a professor of economics at Shanghai Normal University Business School
