Ming Pao News Agency
China and the United States have reached the first phase of the trade dispute issues, and they are relieved worldwide. Although there are still many uncertain factors in the future, at least they show that they are willing to achieve and solve the action.After the ups and downs of negotiations, it is difficult to say, who is better than, but from the public content, the two parties use the principle of easy difficulties and difficulties, which means that the problem that needs to be solved is more difficult. The future negotiation path is even more rugged.Under the circumstances of the rise, the turbulence of Sino -US relations like a roller coaster will become the norm.
Since the beginning of March 2018, U.S. President Trump announced that it has imposed tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products. China -US boxing has come to talk about it.After the recent round of negotiations, Trump met with Vice Premier Liu He at the White House to meet with the United States.And it is announced that the two parties will form a text based on the agreement reached, and they are preparing to sign the relevant agreement at the meeting in Chile next month.
After 20 months of friction, the Sino -US trade war has finally reached a temporary suspension stage that is no longer upgraded. It is good news.But looking at the statements of both parties is not as good as good news.Xinhua News Agency reported that the scope of substantial progress was quite wide, including agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rates, financial services, expanding trade cooperation, technological transfer, dispute resolution, and so on.The United States only announced that China will purchase US $ 40 billion to 50 billion U.S. agricultural products. Trade representative Leitchizawa even said that Trump has not yet decided whether to implement further tariffs in December.Trump, who is accustomed to a honey -belly sword, said that this is a major agreement beyond the category of trade.
Many of the big puzzles in China and the United States have not been solved
Analysis of the agreement on the agreement believes that before the consensus has not formed white paper black words, it is not an agreement, because the two parties are only actively promoted on a series of controversial issues, reaching a principled consensus, literally different, but the execution rules have not been set.China will undoubtedly order agricultural products, because China does need to import soybeans and pork; as for the protection of intellectual property rights, I believe that China will also actively participate, but whether the United States can always ask the United States to participate in the inspection, there will be some controversy;China has also promised to open the financial market, but even if it is open, there will be a timetable, and it is unpredictable whether the United States can accept it. In the most sensitive currency exchange rate, RMB has seen the minimum 7.15 yuan against 1 dollars since August 5th.The United States has announced that China has been a currency manipulator. If the RMB is required to be fixed at a level, that is, it is linked to the US dollar in disguise, then who is manipulating the RMB exchange rate?No puzzles are solved.
There is no difficulty in the world. As long as the difficulties are facing the difficulties, there is no solution. The question is to make a greater concession?From another perspective, who needs this agreement more?China's economic growth has slowed down since last year. Among them, it has its own economic transformation and the influence of foreign trade. If it can reach an agreement with the United States, of course, it is beneficial to develop.However, from the perspective of the negotiations, the United States has overturned all the way, and China has always been accompanied. The negotiations were paused for a time until Trump met with ... in early December last year in Argentina.Agreement, but the war drums, in June this year ... met Trump in Osaka and agreed to restart the negotiations. After that, he also stumbled until the first phase of principle agreement was reached.From the results, the United States has given up the goal of reaching a comprehensive agreement once, but from this process, the difficult insurance agreement is once again bad, and it will be next month ...Essence
The United States has attacked in all sides in trade disputes, and now has reached an agreement with North America and Japan. The remaining two hard bones in China and the European Union are getting closer and closer to Trump's election.In trouble, Trump will use an agreement with China, or continue to aggravate betting, which is difficult to reverse.
Mei Holding Hong Kong to see the SAR Government for the negotiations
On the one hand, the United States announced the suspension, and on the other hand, it announced sanctions on Chinese officials related to Xinjiang on the grounds of human rights. At the same time, it was preparing to review the Hong Kong human rights and democratic bills this week, and the pressure on China did not relax at all.
Trump talked about the Hong Kong issue three times, and his position was repeated, but it almost showed that the Hong Kong issue was linked to the trade negotiations. This time, it was clearly stated that meeting with Liu He had talked about Hong Kong issues.Although Trump has twice stated that Hong Kong's problems can be solved by itself, but the meaning is clear, that is, the United States no longer intervene, but whether this is the case, we still have to listen to their words.In any case, Hong Kong has been robbed by the United States. If China does not give up, the United States' actions against Hong Kong will come back again.
China has moved from developing countries to developed countries. From the perspective of Western, China has risen. In the United States, the United States does not want to see one day, and China will sit on the same way with the United States.What happens during the transition process.Therefore, even if China -US summit will sign the first phase of the agreement next month, the second phase negotiation will be launched immediately, but it can be expected that the negotiations will become more and more difficult.And where the factors in Hong Kong occupy in China -US negotiations, of course, it depends on whether the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government can reverse the situation as soon as possible and get rid of the United States' holdings.
