A letter of Chinese Vice Premier Liu He (left) gave it to US President Trump.(Bloomberg)
China and the United States reached the first phase of the first phase of trade negotiations in China and the United States to inject a stabilizer into the trade war that has been turning sharply in recent months.However, Chinese public opinion is generally cautious about this narrow oral agreement.
Interviewed scholars analyzed that US President Trump faced the pressure of impeachment crisis and the slowdown of the US economy, and changed the probability of successful negotiations in a gradual strategy and stabilizing Sino -US relations.However, scholars expect that the agreement process will be easy.
Trump announced on the afternoon of Friday (11th) in Eastern Time (yesterday morning yesterday in the early morning of local time).Tariffs increased from 25 % to 30 %; China agreed to purchase a large number of American agricultural products and make concessions to make monetary policy and financial services, so that Sino -US trade negotiations, which are full of ups and downs in the past year and a half, exposed the dawn.
Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor of the International Political Department of Renmin University of China, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that China and the United States have reached a consensus on the strategy of at least in the stages.The conditions and other conditions of 100 million dollars are the goals that are more realistic and able to implement.
Concession or related to Trump's Political Hearts
Before this round of negotiations, Trump claimed that he tended to reach a major agreement instead of part of the agreement, but it was reached yesterday that it was a phased agreement, which was regarded by public opinion as concessions in the United States.Chen Guangyan, a professor of economics at Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore, said in an interview that this believes that it is related to the political and economic dilemma facing Trump.
Chen Guangyan explained that Trump is now facing the crisis of impeachment, and has not made a breakthrough in North Korea, Iran and other issues recently. At this time, it is necessary to fight a victory. Sino -US trade negotiations are relatively fast and can be done.This also helps him run for re -president next year.
At the economic level, Chen Guangyan pointed out that the US economy has shown signs of slowing down, especially the manufacturing industry has begun to shrink and puts pressure on Trump.Above this, if the United States continues to increase taxes on Chinese imports, tariffs will spread to ordinary people a larger scale, which may further impact Trump's election.
Chen Guangyan believes that in the face of the above pressure, Trump has now adjusted the negotiation strategy.After talking for more than a year, Trump decided to talk about steps.If you bite a big bite, you will have a small digestion, and you will bite a small bite first, solving the issue that is easier for China to compromise, and then bite the second mouth, and the probability of success is relatively high.
Although the first phase of the protocol is deemed to have developed positive, due to the narrow scope of the agreement and the specific details and texts have not been finalized, Chinese public opinion is generally cautious.
The Chinese official media's evaluation of the results of the negotiations yesterday seemed cautious.The comment reminds of the People's Daily of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: The cancellation of all tariffs is canceled, allowing the trade war to truly stop, and work hard to achieve trade balance in constructive actions and seek the largest convention of common interests in order to finally solve economic and trade issues.Xinhua News Agency warned that many follow -up problems are still full of uncertainty, and we must always maintain sufficient patience and strategic determination.
Cheng Xiaohe analyzed that from the perspective of China, the positive significance of the phased protocol is to boost confidence in Sino -US relations and China's economic situation.However, he pointed out that this is not a comprehensive or one and for all agrees. The negotiation process will be easy and then difficult, and it should be avoided and optimistic.
Trump has not disclosed whether to delay or cancel another round of tariffs imposed on December 15 and targeting Chinese goods worth $ 160 billion.Cheng Xiaohe believes that the first phase of the agreement only allows the trade war to not upgrade further. The next thing to talk about is how to reduce the trade war, which is more difficult.
Cheng Xiaohe said that Sino -US relations have come to a critical node, and Sino -US leaders are aware of this; this phased agreement is reached, which means that the trade war has not ended, but it has not been upgraded, but this will at least help stability Recently.Sino -US relations that are constantly worsening are avoided to avoid losing control.
