Stephen Roki: The pursuit of Chinas poor is to catch the wrong use of God

Stephen Middot; Roach

This year will be the tenth year of my teachings at Yale University.This course focuses on the difficult economic transformation of modern China.It explains that it can avoid the mobile goal of the US President Trump administration, and the Trump administration is aiming at the old China (for leaders who want to revive the old America, this is a convenient goal).Trump trade and economic policies are incomprehensible, and the serious consequences of their possible global economy are the damaged and stable by -products brought about by this disconnection.

My course starts with the urgency of Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s. The main focus is on the miracle of China's economic growth, how to give the Chinese President ... out of four urgent transformation requirements: from exports and investmentThe leading growth shift is increasingly driven by the domestic private consumption economy; from manufacturing to the service industry; shifting from savings surplus to savings absorption, so as to provide funds for China's rapidly aging middle -class social security network; and from imports to independent innovationChange.These changes will eventually determine whether China can achieve the goal of a well -off society in the middle of this century.

These four transformation challenges are together, which is a very difficult task for any country.This is especially the case for China that has a hybrid political economy (that is, the so -called socialist market economy system, the influence between the Communist Party and the vibrant private sector).To be sure, this balance is very difficult to grasp.

I turned the old China to the next China's key point in early 2007. At that time, the then Premier of the State Councilor Wen Jiabao made a diagnosis correctly. At that time, the Chinese economy, which had advanced, became increasingly unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.This well -known four discusses a fierce discussion in China regardless of whether it is broken in China, which has stimulated major reflection on China's economic growth model, and a series of new strategic planning and reforms, that is, the 12th Five -Year Plan and the 12th Five -Year Plan and the 12th Five -Year Plan and 2015The 13th Five -Year Plan from 2016 to 2020, as well as the reform of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee (at the end of 2013).

Although the Western criticism of China is endless (not to mention the bipartisan political anxiety of the Washington Special Economic Zone), on the road to the next China, China has actually made extraordinary progress in the past ten years.China's middle class consumers have risen, and the service industry has become an increasingly powerful growth engine.China's excess account surplus has disappeared nearly, and this trend is critical to absorbing the savings required by the domestic economy.From e -commerce and fintech to breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and life sciences, signs of local innovation can be seen almost everywhere.

It is true that, just like all the legendary events of economic development, China's progress since 2007, and new challenges have appeared in the process.Wen Jiabao's four did not provide a useful method to point out those traps that still exist.Unstable is still a lingering threat. China's huge appetite for debt highlights this, and it also triggers a positive deleveraging movement that is designed to avoid terrible Japanese syndrome.

The phenomenon of imbalances continues, and private consumption accounts for less than 40%of China's GDP (GDP). This shortcoming can only be solved by a stronger social security network (especially pensions and medical care).Continuous regional differences, coupled with increasing increasing income inequality, is a clear manifestation of lack of coordination.Of course, despite the recent progress in the control of air pollution, environmental deterioration is still the core of China's challenging sustainable development agenda.

But for China, trade conflicts with the United States are a new and significant sustainable development challenge.After many years of denying Yokou, the United States is becoming an indisputable fact that it has been adopting a strategy of curbing China.From the continuously upgraded tariff wars and the weapons of Chinese leading technology companies in the blacklist, to Trump ordered US companies to stop doing business with China, and Vice President Pence's new Cold War declaration, the US political system has completedFrom the dramatic transformation that regards China as an opportunity to the threat of existence.

The public's emotions also changed.A recent survey of Petou Research Center found that 60%of Americans held negative views on China, which has increased by 13 percentage points from 2018. It is also the most negative one of China ’s evaluation of China since the investigation in 2005 in 2005.Year.

Regardless of whether this sudden change is reasonable, I am not as worried about the so -called Chinese threats as most people, but I can understand the fear and anxiety of those suspects.The real problem is not whether the allegations of China can stand, but that Trump's policies for handling these allegations are seriously inconsistent.

The US president who did anger did not seem to understand that bilateral trade meant that when one party levied tariffs on the other party, it might be retaliated immediately.His government did not show a understanding of the expanding budget deficit, domestic savings lower than standards, and unbalanced trade in multilateral trade.On the contrary, when the United States lacks fiscal discipline, it will almost expand its trade deficit with the world, and it adopts a bilateral solution aiming at China to solve multilateral problems.

Trump hopes to kill Huawei's leader of this Chinese technology company, instead of regarding it as a legal competitor in the field of 5G telecommunications.In response to Huawei, it has not solved the problem of obvious lack of 5G capabilities in the United States.

This is reminiscent of Don Quixote, and Trump is the person who challenges the windmill.His government is chasing the old China in the old Chinese concept, and this will only exacerbate the problem it claims to be solved.The financial market began to feel that there were something wrong, and so did the Federal Reserve.At the same time, the global economy is on the edge of collapse.In such a dangerous period, the United States has never been an oasis.I think this time is the same.

Author Stephen S. Roach is a senior researcher and senior lecturer at Yale University, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, and writes imbalances: The UNBALARANCED: The Codependency of America)

English Title: Flailing at China

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019

After many years of denying Yokou, the United States is becoming an indisputable fact that it has been adopting a strategy of curbing China.From the continuously upgraded tariff wars and the weapons of Chinese leading technology companies in the blacklist, to President Trump ordered US companies to stop doing business with China, and Vice President Pence's New Cold War declaration, the US political system is completedIt is a dramatic change that takes China as an opportunity to the threat of survival.