Joseph Middot; Nai
US President Trump recently performed at the Seventh -way Group (G7) summit held by Biarritz recently. Many observers were criticized as carelessness and lost.Others believe that the media and experts are too concerned about Trump's personal performance, tweets and political games.They believe that in the long run, historians will use them as small faults.The bigger question is whether Trump's presidential term will become a major turning point in US foreign policy, or a small historical twists and turns.
The current debate around Trump has re -raised a long -term problem: the major historical result is the product selected by humans, or is it mainly caused by the overwhelming structural factors caused by the economic and political forces we cannot control?
Some analysts compare the flow of history to the rushing rivers, and the flow of the flow depends on the climate, rainfall, geology, and terrain, not anything carried by the river.But even so, humans are not just ants that are attached to the wood underwater.They are more like the raft husband in the rapids. They try to control the direction and avoid reefs. Occasionally they turn over, and sometimes they successfully drive to an ideal destination.
Understanding US leaders' choices and failures in foreign policy in the past century allows us to better cope with the problems that we are facing today.The leaders of each era feel that they are dealing with unique changes, but the nature of human beings will never change.Selection can have a significant impact; both inaction and actions may have consequences.In the 1930s, the inaction of U.S. leaders caused the earth to become hell on earth; when the US President monopolized nuclear weapons in the United States, it refused to use them.
Are these major options determined by the situation or personal?Looking back at the past century, Woodrow Wilson broke the tradition and sent the U.S. army to fight in Europe, but replaced with another leader (such as Old Roosevelt), and may do the same.The biggest difference between Wilson is that he used the preaching tone he used during the action, and stubbornly insisted on either to completely join the League of Nations, or he did not join it at all, which produced a counterproductive effect.Some people blamed the serious consequences of the United States' return to isolation in the 1930s to blame Wilson's moralism.
It was not until the Pearl Harbor incident that Losphor would make the United States participate in World War II, and even if a conservative isolatedist was in power at the time, the results may not change.Nevertheless, Roosevelt's exposition of Hitler's threat and his preparation for this threat is vital to the United States participating in European warfare.
After World War II, the two pole structures of the two superpowers laid the pattern of the Cold War.However, if Henry Wallace (Henry Wallace, vice presidential president of Roosevelt in 1944) instead of Harry Truman became president, the US response and timing may be different.Occasionally Robert TAFT or arbitrary Douglas Macarthur, if he was elected president after the 1952 election, may destroy Truman's relatively stable consolidation process.At that time, this strategy was performed by Dwight D.Eisenhower, who later took over as Truman.
Kennedy played a key role in avoiding the Cuban missile crisis leading to a nuclear war and subsequent signing the first nuclear arms control agreement.But he and Lyndon B.johnson put the United States into an unnecessary Vietnamese war and paid a high price failure.By the end of the last century, structural power led to the decline of the Soviet Union, and Gorbachev accelerated its disintegration time.However, Reagan's national defense construction and negotiation skills, and the ability of the old Bush to manage the crisis, have played an important role in the end of the peace of mind.
In other words, leaders and their skills are important.In a sense, this is a bad news, because this means that we cannot take it lightly about Trump's behavior.What is more important than his tweet is that he weakens the attractiveness of the soft power of institutions, alliances, and the United States.According to polls, under the rule of Trump, the soft power of the United States has declined.He is the first president of liberal international order that has been depoted by the United States after World War II in 70 years.General James Mattis was Trump's first National Defense Minister and later resigned. He recently lamented that the president didn't care about the allies.
Presidents need to use hard power and soft power at the same time to combine them to complement each other rather than conflict with each other.Although conspiracy and organizational skills are indispensable, emotional intelligence and contextual IQERIGENCE (EMOTIONAL Intelligence) and Contextual Intelligence are also important.Emotional intelligence has the ability to create self -cognition and self -control, and context providers allow leaders to understand the changing environment, use trends, and use their other skills accordingly.Emotional and context quotients are not Trump's strengths.
Leadership theorist Gautam Mukunda pointed out that leaders who have carefully selected through the established political process are often easier to predict.Bush is a good example.There are also some people who have not been screened, and their performance is very different.Lincoln is a relatively uns filter candidate and one of the best presidents of the United States.Trump has never held public office before winning the presidential election. He entered politics with the background of New York's real estate and TV reality show.It turns out that he has shown a very superb ability in controlling modern media, challenging traditional wisdom, and destructive innovation.Although some people think that this may bring positive results, such as relationships with China, others are still skeptical.
Trump's role in history may depend on whether he can be re -elected.If he is in power for eight years instead of four years, institutions, trust and soft power are more likely to be corroded.But in any case, his successor will face a changeable world, and this part is attributed to Trump's policy, and some of them must be attributed to the structural strength of world politics.To the East (the rise of Asia) and the transfer from the government to non -national behavior (with the help of the Internet and artificial intelligence).As Marx said, we create history, but not under the conditions we choose.The US foreign policy after Trump is still a problem to be discussed.
Author Joseph S.Nye is a professor at Harvard University. Is it important to publish a new book to publish a new book?Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump from Roosevelt to Trump?
English Title: Trumps Effect on us Foreign Policy
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019
