Sino -US trade war is endless. The global economy will decline next year

Industrial and Commercial Times Society

Summer is a good season for typhoons. For the global economy, this year is also a random summer.A few days ago, the German IFO Economic Research Institute released the results of the third quarter of the global economic climate survey. The global economic climate index continued to bottom out. From the negative 2.4 points of the previous season, it fell sharply to 10.1 points, causing the market to discuss whether the global prosperity is approaching.

The IFO economic climate index is composed of two indicators: one is the evaluation of the current economic situation, and the other is the outlook for future economic prospects.From the results of the third quarter survey, it can be found that the financial and economic people of various countries have become consistent with the global economy. Whether it is evaluating the current economic situation or expectations of future prospects, both indicators have fallen into negative values.Global economic confidence is quite weak.Looking back at the last two indicators at the same time, at the same time, the time point was in the second quarter of 2008. At that time, the global economy at the time in September of the same year, the Lehman Brothers Investment Bank announced the bankruptcy into a financial turmoil after bankruptcy.The two indicators of the global economic climate survey once again fell into a pessimistic interval, which seemed to indicate that the global economy would have a major turning point.

Coincidentally, on March 22 this year, the difference between the yield rate difference between the ten years and three -month public bonds in the United States appeared for the first time since the financial tsunami in 2007.The world's largest economy is about to enter the downturn.The spread of the US bond yield has always been regarded as the leading indicator of American prosperity.During the Chengping period, because the long -term public debt interest rate is long, investors must bear uncertainty such as inflation, so long -term public debt interest rates are usually higher than short -term public debt.If the long -term public debt interest rate is lower than the short -term public debt (that is, the inverted), it means that the market expects that the future economy may have doubts about currency tightening, and the prosperity will also have a risk of reversal.

From the observation of the American prosperity cycle cycle in the past 30 years, it can be found that the difference between the yield margin of long -term and short -term public bonds in the United States has indeed the ability to early warning of the prosperity reversal.According to the National Economic Research Agency (NBER) Landscape Cycling, in the past 30 years, the United States has experienced a total of three recession cycles, namely the first (July 1990 to March 1991) and the second time (2001From March to November 2001), the third time (December 2007 to June 2009).Coincidentally, the spread of public bond yields in the ten -year and three -month -old bonds in the United States appeared on May 22, 1989, and on December 28, that year, a total of 98 days of negative interest difference occurred, totaling 15364%of the trading days, the US economy also entered a decline after 7 months.The two other colonial interest rates appeared from July 7, 2000 to January 19, 2001, and July 17, 2006 to August 9, 2007. During these two periods, there were 135 and 270 transactions, respectively.On the day, the spread signal each appeared for 133 days and 233 days, and the US economy also fell into a decline after several months.

In view of the frequent emergence of reversal signals since this year, central banks from various countries have adopted interest rate cuts since mid -this year.In the early days of the Japanese and Korean trade war in July this year, the Bank of South Korea took the lead in the first shot of interest rate cuts at the central bank of the world. It was announced that the United States Federal Statistics would also cut interest rates for the first time on August 1 on August 1 and announced the suspension of suspension.The shrinkage plan launched in October 2017 was implemented. During this period, Thailand, India, and New Zealand also announced simultaneously.It is obvious that the global monetary authorities have smelled the unusual atmosphere of the economic environment.

In all, the weak global economic confidence and the colonial rate of US debt yields are mainly due to the influence of the war of war in China and the United States. The giant waves set off by the two giant ships have affected the global economic ecosystem.It has been more than a year since the Sino -US trade war began in July last year. Looking at the situation of the situation over the past year, it can be described as confusing, just as Mark Tuwen said: reality is sometimes bizarre than novels, because novels need to be certain in certainty.It is done under the logic, but the reality is not used.In March and April of this year, China and the United States also jointly created a smooth and harmonious atmosphere of negotiations. Unexpectedly, the 11th round of negotiations in May ended in the 11th round of the scene, and the subsequent bilateral relations turned sharply.In contrast to Trump's words on the progress of the negotiations, the outside world can no longer use normal logic to deduce. Market participants have even more popular that Trump's Twitter has become the most favorable light for the operation of the capital market.

Since this month, China and the United States have once again increased tariffs on imported goods from each other. China announced that a 5%to 10%tariffs are imposed on some US commodities worth $ 75 billion, and they said that they will expand the scope of tax increases at the end of the year, and while the end of the year, it will increase the scope of increased taxes, and while the scope of tax increase will be expanded, and the scope of tax increase will be expanded, and the scope of tax increase will be expanded, and the scope of tax increase will be expanded.The United States will impose a 15%tariff on Chinese goods worth about 125 billion, and it is predicted that on October 1st, it will increase the tax of 250 billion products that have been levied on October 1.At the same time, the preview will impose 15%tariffs on the last batch of Chinese product lists, that is, 175 billion products based on consumer electronics such as laptops, mobile phones, and mobile phones.In other words, if the deadlock in China and the United States before the end of the year fails to be released, the two countries will be fully filled with the tariff revenge on each other.

The report of China and the United States has finalized the 13th round of high -level consultations in early October, which reflects that the two countries have their own urgency how to cool down the trade war as soon as possible.Major institutions such as IMF predict that the economic growth momentum of the two countries may slow down significantly next year, and more importantly, China still has a difficult problem in dealing with internal debt leverage, while the United States will be in the next year.In order to obtain the China -China negotiations, we can explain to domestic companies and consumers affected during this period.If the Sino -US trade war cannot gradually converge before the end of the year, it may not only damage the economy of the two countries, and will also sound alarm for the global prosperity next year.