Zhu Ying

From August 23rd to 29th, the Sino -US trade war staged a dramatic change.If the dramatic change in May is around the trade negotiation itself, then this dramatic change is a political game.

In just seven days, the Sino -US trade war was ups and downs.On the 23rd, China announced on the premise that there was no sign in advance that it was decided to impose tariffs ranging from 55 billion US dollars in the United States, ranging from 5%to 10%.It will be implemented from 12 o'clock on the 15th.

The words here just fell, and Trump immediately countered.On the same day, Trump announced that the United States will increase from 25%to 30%on October 1 on October 1; in addition, the other tariffs of US $ 300 billion in Chinese goods will be effective on September 1st.From 10%to 15%.

Within a day on the 23rd, the Sino -US trade war reached another new tariff level, and the Sino -US stock market fell.It is puzzling that the Chinese government's move was exactly what the United States showed good to China.The U.S. government announced on August 13 that it will impose a 10%tariff on September 1 on September 1 on some of the US $ 300 billion in US -US transit goods, which will be postponed until December 15.On August 19th, the US Department of Commerce announced that it would give Huawei a 90 -day broad limit, allowing Huawei to purchase the components of the US company to serve the existing customer.

Both of these good measures were interpreted as signs of the US economic recession. Trump said that he was delayed because of fear that tariffs would affect Christmas shopping.In short, the continuation of the trade war to the US economy is gradually emerging.

The United States does show signs of recession.The second estimated data released by the US Department of Commerce on August 29 shows that the actual domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of this year calculated by 2%at an annual rate, which is 0.1%lower than the first estimated data.Below a growth rate of 3.1%in the first quarter.Goldman Sachs believes that Trump's trade war has caused US GDP to grow by 0.6%.This is a loss of $ 100 billion a year.

On August 15th, the two -year and 10 -year Treasury yield curve in the United States for the first time in the first 14 years, the latter's yield rate once fell to a three -year low of 1.57%, which further intensified investors' concerns about economic recession.A survey released by the US Economic Association of the United States on August 19 shows that 34%of the respondents said that the US economy is slowing and will enter the recession in 2021.In the investigation in February this year, the ratio of the same views was 25%.In addition, 38%of people in this survey believe that the economy will enter a decline next year.

The US economic recession shows that Trump's re -election of the presidential dream.If you should take the shot, you should chase the leftovers and not be able to sell well -known overlords. This time, China took the initiative to attack this time.It's not a good thing for Trump to re -election for China.Trump, who has been seeking re -election, certainly was irritable for the Chinese government's tariff measures. It not only counterattacked the tariffs, but also added bad words.

On August 21, Trump said that a trade war with China should have happened long ago. In response to China, he was selected by God.On August 22, Trump said: I saw economists say, giving up, giving up China, and abandonment!hellip; hellip; now it is time, whether it is good for our country, or bad for our country in the short term.In the long run, challenging China is imperative.

On August 23, Trump tweeted that he could withdraw from China in accordance with the International Emergency Economic Power Law.The Law stated that if the United States is facing a huge threat from the outside, the president has the right to supervise international business after announced the state's emergency state.Trump's remarks show that he publicly advocates the decoupling of economic and trade relations between China and the United States.

Suddenly, the situation turned sharply. On August 26, Liu He stated in public that we were willing to solve the problem through consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude, resolutely opposed the upgrading of the trade war.

At 8:30 am local time in France on August 26, Trump said that he was very optimistic about the US -China trade negotiations. He received two calls from China. For the first time, he saw that China really wanted to reach an agreement.But the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Geng Shuang immediately denied the phone call. He said: I can tell you clearly that I have not heard of this.He said that China did not eat threats at all.US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin immediately confirmed the existence of the call and mentioned Liu He's appeal about calm attitude, but did not confirm who called first.But no matter what, the Sino -US trade negotiations have seen dawn.

Around August 23, Trump's evaluation of China's supreme leaders was also dramatic.In the tweets on August 23, Trump called China's top leader as an enemy.Previously, Trump has repeatedly said that China's supreme leader is a great leader, and it is even one of the best leaders in China in 200 years.On August 26, Trump also said that China's top leader was a great leader and an outstanding person.

The drama of the Sino -US trade war is so dramatic that even drama writers can't conceive, but these things happen in the days from August 23 to 29.

On August 27, the U.S. Trade Representative Office officially announced that the fourth round of tariffs on US $ 300 billion in US -American transmission of goods will increase from 10%to 15%.Implement.This is one of the administrative procedures for implementing Trump's content published on Twitter on the 23rd of this month.On August 29, the Ministry of Commerce of China stated that China and the United States were discussing the next round of face -to -face trade negotiations in September.On the same day, Trump also said that the United States and China scheduled to hold trade negotiations at different levels on the day.The Sino -US trade war returned to a new starting point.

The dramatic Sino -US trade war reflects that both China and the United States are playing a big country with their own strength. The dramatic changes have left China to China.21.8%, will rise to 25.9%on December 15.Huawei is increasing.

Trump's offering international emergency economic power law shows that it is possible for China -US economic and trade relations.Although the trade war hurts the US economy, is it even more harmful to China, or is it tough?There is such an argument: The trade war has been hit to the most comfortable stage for China to now, is it high -end black?Individual officials who talk about such words should ask: Where is your heart?

The author is a professor of economics at Shanghai Normal University Business School

Although the trade war hurts the US economy, is it even more harmful to China, or is it tough?There is such an argument: The trade war has been hit to the most comfortable stage for China to now, is it high -end black?Individual officials who talk about such words should ask: Where is your heart?