Trumps re -election of road bumping global economic risks increased

Source: Economic Daily Review

The President of the United States (Trump) has long announced that it will be re -elected. Although the internal situation of the Democratic Party is unknown, Trump's re -election facing the biggest challenge is the US economy.The US presidential election has always affected the development of global political and economic. In the 2020 US presidential election, it will decide whether the Trump route continues or not, and its position on China will have a deeper impact on global impact.

In the history of the presidential election of the United States, good economic performance is a necessary condition for the re -election of the president. If the economy is not good, the current president will definitely be revealed.The most obvious example was President Bush (Old Bush) in 1992. Even after the Persian Gulf War, the reputation was like the sky, but he couldn't stop the decline of the economic decline, and eventually lost to the challenging Clinton.

Trump's current support rate is about 40 % to 45 %, and the main reason for supporting Trump voters is the current strong economy in the United States.However, based on past experience, this support rate is not enough to support Trump's re -election; and Trump currently does not support the ratio than the support ratio.Trump must be successful, and in the future, more voters should fight for his ability to deal with economics.

The United States originally questioned free trade, so after Trump took office, he took the lead in withdrawing from the Cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP); it also one -sided citation of the US Trade Law to implement a number of trade protection measures.On the basis of fairness, sign a trade agreement with the United States.However, these policies will benefit some domestic industries and also ensure some employment opportunities; however, it has also impacted US exports and affects the US economy. Therefore, the current voices of doubts in the United States have also increased.According to the latest polls, the proportion of the United States supports free trade has increased significantly, challenging Trump with a fair trade route that protects color.

The development of the US -China trade war will not only affect the global and American economy in the future, but also whether Trump can strive for more key factor in American economic voters.The American people generally support tough means to China, but they may hurt themselves like two blades like sanctions.Trump recently announced that the original 10%tariff products, including mobile phones, laptops, shoes, clothes and toys, etc., narrowing the scope and suspended implementationOne example.

In addition, Trump also announced a few days ago that for related companies such as Huawei and other related enterprises that were originally implemented by American companies in mid -August, it will be extended again for 90 days to mid -November.Step on the brake temporarily.But on the other hand, Huawei 46 subsidiaries were added to the entity list to expand the scope of sanctions.

Trump has repeatedly extended sanctions on China. In addition to the use of negotiation strategies, the most important consideration is that the United States may not be profitable before the concession in China, but will be injured first.In fact, the United States and China are dense in the global industrial chain. Before finding a reliable alternative, the Chinese industry excludes the supply chain and will also hit the US industry.

The stopping and stopping of the US -China trade war not only increased the world economy uncertainty, but also had warnings in the US economy.Although the US economy is currently performing well, various data such as economic growth rate, labor market, salary level, etc., the performance is very eye -catching.However, recently, the US stock market has fluctuated, and the bond market has also showed that there is a risk of economic recession in the United States. The ratio of the United States is not optimistic about the prospects of economic prospects.

Especially during the U.S. -China trade negotiations, as long as Trump adds a pair of China, it will almost cause global economic shocks.Recently, Trump also advocated that China should deal with Hong Kong issues ancestors, and the United States and China continued to conduct trade negotiations, similar to linked the Hong Kong issues with the US -China trade negotiations. China also strongly counterattacked to make the US -China trade negotiations more complicated and when it may be extended.Procedure.

In the future, Trump must be on the one hand to maintain American technological advantages and ensure national security, forcing mainland China to concession to reach an agreement to show his ability to govern the country.On the other hand, with the overall sanctions against mainland China and the increase in the risk of global economic decline, to ensure the high growth of the US economy, at least it can maintain the strength of the presidential election next November.How to balance between the two is a big challenge for Trump.