The US -China trade war that lasted more than a year has no signs of relief.The collisions between the two superpowers not only spread from the field of trade to technology and other fields, but also the possibility of further influenced the security and military interaction.
Although the US President Trump at the beginning of the stage in the background of the businessman, he only limited the US -China conflict in the field of trade. He hoped that China would take measures through trade negotiations and pressure to reduce the trade deficit between the United States and China.Development and the deep -seated and structural contradictions between China and the United States, this conflict will inevitably shift to politics, military and security and other fields.Due to the intensification of the Sino -US conflict, the security situation in the Asia -Pacific region will become increasingly severe and complex.
From the current point of view, Trump is a slow -heating president, but strives to fulfill his promise in action and policies.In the last election, he repeatedly stated that the huge trade deficit with China and other trading partners was one of the biggest challenges facing the United States.
At the beginning of the stage, he did not immediately start a trade war with China. Instead, he waited for more than a year and re -integrated his ruling team and consolidated power before he began to play a trade sign.This trade war is twists and turns. At present, the two countries do not have the conditions to immediately reach a comprehensive agreement, and the trade war has entered a phase of support.
From a strategic point of view, because both parties in the stages do not have the strength of the enemy, it is very likely that the war of war will be extended to other fields to gain advantages.In addition, Trump will soon enter a new round of presidential campaign and continue to maintain toughness to China, helping him to win more votes of conservatives in the United States.He is likely to open up new fronts to China and transfer international and domestic attention to reduce people's attention and criticism of trade deadlock.In addition, China has adopted a strategy of retreating in trade, which further stimulated the fighting power of the eagle in the Trump team, and they will inevitably take a tough attitude on other issues.
Trade and security belong to the different areas of one article, but when the country is promoting a foreign strategy, the two often linked the two to obtain the advantageous position in non -advantageous fields.Judging from the experience of the United States and other countries, it is not uncommon for the United States to associate economic and trade issues with security issues.From time to time, the United States requires allies to concessions to the United States in the economic and trade field on the grounds of reducing security for allies.
For countries that pose a threat to the United States in the field of security, the United States will not hesitate to take embargo and trade sanctions.For China, trade and security, politics and other issues are also linked.When China and the Philippines were tense due to conflict between the South China Maritime territory a few years ago, China once reduced the purchase of the Philippines banana and other products.
Today, the two sides of China and the United States have no willingness to concession and compromise in the field of trade.The trade war further stimulated the rise in domestic nationalism in the two countries. Under such circumstances, the tension between the two sides in the fields of security and military may also be re -stimulated.This will inevitably bring further challenges to the security situation in the Asia -Pacific, and a new round of Cold War may come at any time.
As the Economy of the Asia -Pacific countries has been severely impacted by the US -China trade war, the deterioration of the security situation is likely to bring a new round of military reserve competitions in Asia -Pacific countries.The status of military and security issues in the political agenda of various countries will be further prominent.
Although Trump proposed the Indo -Pacific strategy shortly after he came to power, he hoped to strengthen security cooperation with Japan, India, Australia and other countries to increase the existence of the United States in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, but the initial two years did not make great progress.Pu people are also in the dispute between colleagues fighting and scandal investigation.However, in the past six months, with the increasingly acute contradiction between the US -China trade, the United States has significantly accelerated the strategic deployment pace against Asia -Pacific, and has made significant breakthroughs in some areas, opening the door for the United States to continue to increase Indo -Pacific military investment in the future.
At the beginning of August this year, the United States announced the official withdrawal from the United States and Russia's medium -range and medium -range missiles.The medium -signed treaty signed by the United States and the former Soviet Union in 1987 was regarded as one of the institutional cornerstone that gradually established the end of the Cold War.The United States announced the unilateral exit of the treaty after a lapse of 30 years, which may marked that the international community is transitioning to the Cold War period, or it may be entering a new round of geopolitical tension.
On the surface, the United States withdrawn the Treaty Treaty because the United States claims that Russia has no strict performance, but the observer also pointed out that China ’s increasingly powerful missile rocket forces have not been restricted by the Treaty of the United States.
During the three weeks after the United States retired, it fired a cruise missile with a range of more than 500 kilometers, which showed that the retreat opened a convenient door for the United States to increase the development and deployment of missiles in the United States.This will inevitably promote the further approach of the Sino -Russian military. Because Russia is no longer bound by the Treaty of China, the new round of missile competitions of the three major countries in the United States and Russia will inevitably be inevitable.If the United States wants to cover the medium -range missiles in future deployment to the Far East of China and Russia, it must consider setting up a missile base in East Asia or South Asia.
The new US Minister of Defense Esper said in a recent trip to Asia -Pacific that due to the stability of China under the stability of the Indo -Pacific region, the U.S. military must deploy land -based medium -range missiles in Asia.Due to the deployment of the Sad air defense system in South Korea a few years ago, it has caused confrontation between China and South Korea relations, and a new round of missile deployment plans in the United States will inevitably exacerbate the geopolitical tension and arms competition in East Asia.
In addition, the Trump authorities also approved 66 F-16 fighters with a total of $ 8 billion in Taiwan. This is the first time that the United States has sold advanced fighters on a large scale to Taiwan for more than 20 years.This marks further heating in the era of US -Taiwan relations in the Trump era. Previously, Trump also signed a Taiwan travel law that promoted high -level exchanges in the United States and Taiwan.These will inevitably stimulate the sensitive nerves of mainland China.
In the context of China's military reform, Chinese military forces are constantly moving towards cutting -edge and data, and the existence of the Chinese army in the East Asian waters, airspaces, and land is constantly strengthening.The road of strong army in China and the Indo -Pacific strategy in the United States are bound to have greater collisions in East Asia and South Asia.This will inevitably stimulate the Asia -Pacific countries to further increase military investment and military training, and geopolitical risks in disputes and sensitive areas will increase greatly.
(The author is the assistant director and senior researcher of the National University of Singapore, the Assistant Director of the East Asia Research Institute)
