Lin Yifu said that because of the trade war, China's growth rate may slow down, but the US economic development and global influence will decline faster.(Photo by Long Guoxiong)
Lin Yifu, a well -known economist in China and Dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute of Peking University, believes that as long as it is equal and mutually beneficial and maintains national sovereignty, negotiations can easily reach consensus.But now the United States has to add tariffs during the negotiation process, and it is unclear whether there will be other actions after the agreement is reached.
If China and the United States are decoupled by the trade war, the world pattern will not return to the two major systems of the Cold War to coexist. As a result, it will be that the United States is isolated and decoupled from the world.Continue to maintain economic and trade exchanges and technical cooperation.
Lin Yifu, a well -known economist in China and Dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute of Peking University, gave the above judgment on the development of the Sino -US game in an exclusive interview with the United Morning Post.
Lin Yifu said that China is now the world's largest trading country and the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries.Products and technology are sold to China, but for these countries, this is equivalent to abandoning China's huge market.
We know that there is a truth in trade. The benefits of small countries in the trade between the two countries are greater than the benefits of large powers.Lin Yifu said that the US allies do not sell products and technology to China: China will be damaged, but those smaller countries are more damaged than China.What enthusiasm does those countries have to sacrifice the interests of their own countries in order to maintain his hegemony in the United States?
For example, the United States once asked the allies not to adopt Huawei's 5G products, but now it seems that only Australia follows.
Therefore, if the United States continues to upgrade the trade war, it will only form lsquo; u.s. And the rest of the worldrsquo; (the United States and other countries around the world).
Regarding the deadlock of trade negotiations, Professor Lin believes that as long as it is equal and mutually beneficial and maintains national sovereignty, negotiations can easily reach consensus.But now the United States has to add tariffs during the negotiation process, and it is unclear whether there will be other actions even after reaching an agreement.
Examples of him in Europe: The United States just reached an agreement with Europe last month, and Europe also compromised and promised to buy more American beef, but the United States later said that it would increase European car tariffs. ThereforeAsk, today he satisfied him, and it is not enough tomorrow.
Lin Yifu said that because of the trade war, China's growth rate may slow down, but the US economic development and global influence will decline faster.
Lin Yifu is also the dean of the Peking University School of Cooperation and Development and Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute.He came to new earlier this month and delivered a public speech at a lecture held by the Peking University Alumni Association in Singapore. In an exclusive interview, he also made a view on the future development of China and Singapore.
China's economic downturn is mainly external cyclical factors
Lin Yifu said that China's current economic downward pressure is increasing, but in the next 10 years, there is still an average annual growth potential of 8%. The actual growth can remain at about 6%.
He believes that it is necessary to clearly analyze the reasons why the Chinese economy continues to face downward pressure since 2010.Many people think that the source is the institutional structure within China: for example, the proportion of state -owned enterprises is too large, the savings are too much consumption, and the leverage is too high.He acknowledged that these problems did exist, but not the main reason.
Lin Yifu said that the BRICS countries are like Russia, India, Brazil; emerging market economies like Turkey, Indonesia, Chile; East Asian high -income economy is like Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, etc. There are no internal problems in these regions, but the economy has also followed from the from.It began to decline in 2010, and the range is still larger than China.
Therefore, Lin Yifu analyzed that China's economic downturn is mainly caused by external cyclical factors.The core problem is that it has more than half of the developed countries in the world, and has not completely recovered from the 2008 financial crisis.Before the crisis, the average growth rate of the United States and Western European countries was 3%to 3.5%. Now the best United States is only 2.9%last year. The World Bank is expected to be 2.5%this year and 2%next year.European countries fluctuate 2%and Japan is also fluctuating.
The slowdown in economic growth of these developed countries means that demand is reduced, which has led to decrease in imports, which affects the growth of export economies like China.
In this case, only domestic consumption is maintained by maintaining national economic growth. China's employment status is relatively good, so it has driven domestic consumption.However, consumption growth in other countries does not have China Fast, which has led them to its economic decline than China.
Looking forward to the future, Lin Yifu believes that developed countries have not carried out structural reforms after the financial crisis, so it is difficult to return to the growth rate before the crisis.The Chinese economy can only rely on domestic demand MDASH; mdash; investment and consumption mdash; mdash; to pull, there is still a lot of room for this aspect.
He said that as a medium -income country, China has a lot of industrial upgrading space and a lot of investment opportunities.First of all, in improving investment in infrastructure, although facilities between cities such as highways, railways, airports, ports, etc., the infrastructure in cities is still seriously inadequate.Secondly, the speed of worsening environment has also accelerated with development, and investment in the environment is needed.Third, China's current urbanization rate is 59.6%, and more than 80%of developed countries are still a distance. During the process of urbanization, investment needs to be investing to solve the problems of housing, employment, and public facilities after farmers enter the city.There are many good investment opportunities in China, which is not available in developed countries.
In addition, China does not lack the funds required for investment.The proportion of liabilities in the central government and local governments accounted for less than 60%of GDP, so the space of active fiscal policies was large.Secondly, China's savings rate is as high as 45%, so government money can be used to leverage private investment.Third, China can use trillions of foreign exchange reserve import machinery and raw materials.
He also said that although the economic downward pressure is now increasing, China has conditions to maintain investment growth, so as to create employment, employment can increase family income, and then drive consumption.
