New China, 70 years.In 70 years, the sea changes hugely, and the waves are stirred, which is full of magnificent; in the 70 years, the storm is stunned and opened a corner, and it is full of bumps.
Great changes and excitement, magnificent and bumpy are the light and shadow on the 70 -year curtain.Wherever the light and shadow, China has been clearly visible from standing up to rich to stronger and strong.
The National Games is updated and has become rich and strong. To sum up experience, the topic may be: the trend, knowledge, and conspiracy.70 years ago, the founding of New China was the trend of the times.The obscure night gradually opened up dawn; the poverty -stricken phase was refreshed.In 1978, the reform and opening up opened: From the breds of market economy to innovation of institutional mechanisms, from family coalition contracted responsibility system to state -owned enterprise reform hellip; HelloP;The miracle spectrum is also because of knowledge.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Chinese economy has reached the transformation node, and the boat has been hit by the middle.High -quality development is struggling and inseparable.In the stance of hard work, continue to remove the disadvantages from the reform, develop space to open up, lick the system spasm, and break the binding of the frame, which is the fruit of the potential.
Follow the trend, know the situation, and conspire, corresponding to the thinking and thinking.Thinking carefully and then doing it, walking from far away;Recording his thoughts, knowing the today's today, to better observe the road and seek the future, this is the meaning of the significance of the 70 -year -old China Economic Bank Middot; Middot; recording.
From 1949 to 2019, the Chinese economy was 70 years old, and the media used to describe the great changes in the past from one poor to two -big white to the world's second largest economy.The review and summary of the Chinese economy in 70 years, as well as thinking about the current economic issues, undoubtedly have important significance and value.
How to look at the 70 -year Chinese economy and which places are worth reflecting on?Looking back at the process of China's financial development since the reform and opening up, why did China have not had a financial crisis, and how to treat the currency over issue?
Focusing on these issues, reporters from the Beijing News interviewed Yu Yongding, a member of the Academic Department and economist of the Academy of Social Sciences.As an observer of the Chinese economy, Yu Yongding has long been paying attention to China's macroeconomic and international financial fields, and has his own distinctive view on topics such as China's international income and expenditure, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and macroeconomic policies.
In Yu Yongding's view, many factors supporting China's high -speed growth of China's high -speed growth were one -time. Now some factors can not be used as the driving force for economic growth.He also reminded that some factors that allowed China to avoid the financial crisis have also deteriorated, and they must be highly vigilant.
Regarding the controversy of the central bank's currency superb issuance, Yu Yongding believes that it is not the central bank's currency over issuance that leads to asset heat. To a large extent, the asset heat forces the central bank to have to exceed currency.Curber asset bubbles through currency tightening, and hurts excessive damage to the real economy.Therefore, we cannot mainly rely on monetary policy to solve the problem of asset bubbles.
At the moment, the Chinese economy is in the third phase of the stack (the economic growth shifting period, the painful period of structural adjustment, and the digestive period of the preliminary stimulus policy coexist), and at the same time, the external environment is facing great uncertainty.The downward pressure on China's economy has increased significantly, and the difficulty of macroeconomic policy orientation has increased.In this context, how is the Chinese economy breaking the situation, which is more important to stabilize and regulate the structure?
In Yu Yongding's view, economic growth is the outline, and the resolution of China's economic issues must rely on the realization of economic growth.Based on this understanding, he recently proposed that the fiscal deficit rate has exceeded 2.8%.Various signs show that if you do not take policy measures, the economic situation in the second half of this year may be more severe.There is no other way to improve the fiscal deficit rate.Yu Yongding bluntly.
However, Yu Yongding also emphasized that the stable growth and the adjustment of the structure complement each other, while stimulating effective demand should not cause the structure to deteriorate.
Many factors that support China's high economic growth at that time were disposable
Beijing News: Looking back at the 70 -year Chinese economy, what experience can be summarized, and at the same time, which places need to reflect?
Yu Yongding: 70 years of China's economy, reform and opening up is undoubtedly an important node.Thirty years before the reform and opening up, China formed a relatively complete industrial system, etc., which laid the foundation for the development of reform and opening up.On the other hand, China has not implemented a planned economy for a long time, and market -oriented reforms are easy to advance.These have become favorable conditions for China's reform and opening up.
Since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of China's economy has also benefited from the four aspects of peace, stability, reform, and opening up: First of all, the strategic adjustment of the United States and China has brought about peace between the two countries. Economically, Western countriesThe stage characteristics of economic development and China's reform and opening up are exactly highly complementary; second, domestic political stability is another prerequisite for China's miracle; third, the reform of economic system reform is an important in China's economic growth in the past 30 years.Power; Fourth, in the opening to the outside world, China participates in international division of labor to improve resource allocation and increase employment.
At the same time, the Chinese economy has made great achievements, and it has paid a lot of costs, which has caused problems such as depletion of resource, environmental pollution, population liabilities, urban and rural gaps, and the gap between the rich and the poor.In addition, many factors supporting China's high -speed growth in that year were disposable. Although many disposable factors could play a role for a long time, some factors have not been used as the driving force for economic growth, and some have even become economic growth.challenge.
Beijing News: From more than 40 years after the reform and opening up, there is no financial crisis in China. What may be the reason?
Yu Yongding: I think the most important point is: First, China is a high savings country, and China has sufficient borrowing funds.China's investment rate is very high, but the ratio of foreign debt to GDP remains within the level of security.Secondly, due to China's institutional arrangement, it is difficult to imagine that the bank's crowding will occur.The final performance of any financial crisis is bank crowding.If severe liabilities have occurred abroad, this phenomenon may occur, but in China's financial institutions and banking systems, state -owned dominant positions, that is, national credit is guaranteed (invisible) guarantee, and there will be no crowding phenomenon.Third, the fleeing of capital can also lead to a financial crisis.However, China has not given up capital control. Since 2016, we have also strengthened capital control, thereby curbing the large -scale fleeing of capital.Fourth, due to stricter supervision of financial institutions, derivative financial instruments such as MBS, CDO, and CDS are limited.Fifth, the leverage ratio of China's economy, especially the leverage rate of government departments, is still at the level that the real economy can be supported.Sixth, the bank's non -performing debt rate has been lower since the beginning of the century.Seventh, although the growth rate of the real economy has decreased, it still maintains a strong growth momentum.
It should be emphasized that there was no crisis in the past and did not mean that there would be no crisis in the future.Some of the above -mentioned factors that allow China to avoid the incidence of financial crisis have deteriorated significantly.We must maintain high vigilance.
The conclusion that study the Asian financial crisis is that when the external environment is adversely changed, the requirements for the financial crisis in a country is a fixed exchange rate system, a free flow of capital, and the international revenue and expenditure deficit.The last straw of the country.When the country's economic fundamentals have problems, capital escape will cause the country's government to lose the ability to deal with potential crises.Even if there are no serious problems in the fundamentals of a country, due to the infection effect of fluctuations in the international financial market, capital fleeing will occur.Capital escape itself is enough to lead to the international income and expenditure crisis, monetary crisis, financial crisis and economic crisis.Therefore, the realization of capital account liberalization under the condition of immature conditions is tantamount to self -destruction of the Great Wall.It is based on this understanding that I have always insisted that the flexibility of the exchange rate should be increased as much as possible, and at the same time, the capital control cannot be easily abandoned.
China is indeed facing many financial risks. It is very important to keep the bottom line that does not have systemic regional financial risks. One of the important links is to prevent capital from fleeing. Generally speakingWith the fleeing of mold capital, China can avoid the financial crisis.
Asset heat forced the central bank to have lsquo; super -issued RSquo; currency
Beijing News: Looking back at China's financial development process, a controversy of the public's monetary policy from the central bank comes from the currency superb issue. How to see this issue?
Yu Yongding: Under normal circumstances, the growth rate of broad currency (M2) should be equal to the growth rate of nominal GDP. At this standard, the central bank of China has exceeded the growth rate of nominal GDP in some years, but not all all all the growth rates of nominal GDP, but not all all all are all all, but not all all all are all all, but not all all are all all all, but not all all are all all.This is the year.It should be noted that it is not necessary to judge whether the central bank's currency is over issuing according to the formula of the number of currencies, and the specific problems should be analyzed.
What we need to think more is why the central bank does this?I think there is a very important reason that China has a certain degree of overheating assets in some periods.For example, when the real estate thermal and shadow bank heat occurs, a large amount of liquidity enters the asset market and chasing existing assets, which has led to the rise in asset prices, and it has also taken away a large number of currencies that should have entered the real economy as the means of circulation.EssenceThese currencies flow and recycle in the capital market, raising the price of existing assets, but have not entered the real economy.
What should I do if the real economy has to develop but not get loans?At this time, there are two ways: First, find ways to make these currencies chasing assets withdraw from the asset market into the real economy.Second, if the first method cannot be done, the central bank can only issue currency, otherwise the real economy will not get loans.Therefore, the so -called central bank's currency superb issuance is largely due to our asset bubble or real estate thermal absorption of a large amount of liquidity. In order to enable the real economy to get enough liquidity, the central bank has to passively increase the currency supply.EssenceTherefore, it is not that the central bank has issued currency to lead to the asset bubble, but the existence of the asset bubble forced the central bank to have to increase the currency, resulting in the growth rate of M2 than the growth rate of nominal GDP.
Beijing News: How is the asset heat formed and how to solve it?
Yu Yongding: The reasons for the formation of asset heat are complicated.For example, the Tulip Hot of the Netherlands, the South China Sea bubble, the crazy Clivia incident in the 1980s, and the stock market thermal of the stock market before the stock market in 2015 were not caused by the currency over issuance.For some other reasons, investors have psychological expectations, and then they begin to speculate, and then amplify through the herd effect, which eventually leads to soaring asset prices.
It is still necessary to emphasize that the currency of the central bank has led to the asset heat. To a large extent, the asset heat forced the central bank to have to exceed currency.To solve the problem of the liquidity of the real economy, currency super issuance is not the best way. It is a last resort.
Asset bubbles are suppressed, and currency growth will drop.The currency tightening is used to suppress the asset bubble, which hurts too much to the real economy.Therefore, solving the problem of asset bubbles cannot be solved by monetary policy.This is because the goal of controlling the asset bubble and other macro -control targets are not often consistent.For example, from the perspective of the real estate cycle and monetary policy, China's real estate has passed several lift cycles in the past ten years. Since 2008, the economy has continued to decline and the core inflation rate is very low. China's monetary policy should be loose, but China’s in ChinaMonetary policy has been adjusting, why?Because the central bank also takes asset prices as the goal of macro -control.The central bank has too many regulation goals, and there are not so many policy tools that cannot take care of all policy goals.
Therefore, is the face of rising house prices and tightening currency?I don't think it is feasible.Solving asset bubbles requires other methods. For example, you can consider levying real estate tax, increased public rental housing construction, and real -name system of real estate owners to suppress the rise in housing prices.
To solve the false orientation, we must first ensure the economic growth
Beijing News: In recent years, it has been prominently out of reality. At present, what other methods can solve this problem?
Yu Yongding: To solve these problems, the first step is to ensure economic growth.If the real economy does not have room for profit, money naturally flows to a virtual place.If the real economy earns money, money naturally flows to the entity.So, how to make the real economy earn money?There must be a physical trading that is not afraid of losing money to drive economic growth. This entity is the country.For example, the start of infrastructure investment will drive a series of demand for upstream and downstream, and other industries can naturally make money.
In short, if the economic growth rate is recovered, many problems can be solved.To solve China's economic issues, we need to look at it. This outline is the speed of economic growth.If the economic growth rate has always fallen, financial institutions are very pessimistic about the real economy investment, and various kinds of shadow banking business will occur, but the asset price bubble that lacks the profit support of the real economy will sooner or later collapse.Conversely, the real economy has the driving force, and the problem of deficiency and virtuality is naturally solved.
Beijing News: But at present, we discuss solutions more from the perspective of financial reform.
Yu Yongding: Financial reform is also an important direction. It cannot be rejected, but it cannot solve fundamental problems.In fact, China's macro -control experience has proven this MDash; MDASH; from 1998 to 2002, it was due to the growth of China's economy and the problem of bad claims.Without economic growth, there will be more and more cities with bad claims.Therefore, I still have to emphasize that growth is the last word; growth is outline, and the outline is open.The resolution of China's economic issues must be achieved by economic growth.
Expand the deficit, there should be no major problems in China's finances
Beijing News: You mentioned many times that growth is the last word.Like steady growth, the tone structure is equally important for the current China.Will the two be constrained in economic operation? How to balance it?
Yu Yongding: Stable growth and adjustment, the two complement each other.In some cases, the two do conflict.For example, China can improve economic growth by stimulating the real estate market, but this will deteriorate China's economic structure.Reducing the proportion of real estate investment in the Chinese economy is an important goal of China's economic structure adjustment.
But in most cases, there will be no conflict between the two.For example, the implementation of the construction of a clean government and marketization will not cause economic growth (unless there are officials intentionally idle).For example, many problems need to be solved in development, the speed of economic growth has gone, and the adjustment structure has become easier.In fact, when economic growth is good, structural reforms are relatively easy.Similarly, when economic growth declines, the difficulty of structural reform has increased accordingly.
How to balance the two?On the one hand, it is a merger and reorganization, shutdown, and turning to the enterprises of the excess industries to remove the excess capacity and reduce the supply to increase the price recovery, and the profit of good enterprises can rise.If you do not eliminate bad companies, good companies will go bankrupt.However, it is necessary to emphasize that the elimination of production and sales, no demand or the production capacity that is harmful to the environment is a micro -issue, a problem of industrial structure, and it is necessary to solve it through market regulation (the country must also play a role) rather than macro -control.On the other hand, excess capacity from macro (not overcapacity in a certain specific product and specific industry) is caused by insufficient effective demand, so it is necessary to stimulate effective demand.Effective demand for stimulation should also avoid the deterioration of the structure.At present, China's infrastructure construction space is still huge. The construction of urban underground pipeline networks, the treatment of various pollution, the remediation of the river basin, and the establishment and improvement of various public service facilities require large -scale investment.Of course, the phenomenon of lazy administration, idleness, or blind pursuit of political achievements, brutal, and dryness must be eliminated, otherwise good economic policies will change in practice, but these problems have surpassed the category of economic problems.
Beijing News: Recently, you mentioned that the boundary of 2.8%of the fiscal deficit can break through. Is this breakthrough short or long -term?In addition, the expansion of deficit will bring certain risks. How to prevent trouble?
Yu Yongding: At present, the biggest problem in China's economy is that the downward trend has not stabilized.Various signs show that if you do not take policy measures, the economic situation in the second half of this year canMore severe.There is no other way to improve the fiscal deficit rate.In the long run, deficit is not a good thing.But as Kanes said, we died in the long run.The 3%stipulated in the Masterich Treaty does not make much sense, not Jin Keyu.
The expansion of deficit leads to rising government bonds, which will indeed bring certain risks.In the past, economists often talked about the upper limit of government bonds to GDP.But in fact, we don't know when the national debt expansion will have risks. This is an empirical issue.Taking Japan as an example, in 1996, Japan believed that 92%of government bonds in GDP accounted for a high proportion of risk, so it shrinks fiscal expenditure and increases taxes, but this has led to a decline in the Japanese economy.As a result, Japan continued to implement the policy of expanding fiscal expenditure, and now it accounts for 250%, but there is no fiscal crisis.
Therefore, we do n’t know how high the deficit rate should be limited to how high and the expansion of government bonds will happen mdash; mdash; if it is left without any crisis, it may also lead to crisis if you are too cautious.Judging from the current situation in China, while there is no inflation, there is room for issuance of government bonds. Why not dare to issue it?From the perspective of public debt stock, China's public debt accounts for no more than 48%of GDP. From an international comparison perspective, it is very low. In this case, it expands deficits and finance should not have a big problem.
If the decline in economic growth is the biggest risk at present, the policy goals must be concentrated on increasing economic growth, and other problems will be retreated and began. Source: Beijing News
