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Scholars point out that in the face of economic downlink pressure, China must expand its overall demand, and the tax reduction effect on the economy is not obvious compared to fiscal increase.

Affected by economic slowdown and tax cuts, the increase in fiscal expenditure in the Chinese government in the first half of this year was significantly higher than the increase in income. If the fiscal policy in the second half of the year, the 2.8%deficit rate target may break through.

Facing the increase in external uncertainty and downward pressure on the economy, China's public opinion has once again appeared again to break through the red line of deficit and increase the voices of expanding fiscal policies.

According to the data of the Ministry of Finance of China, in the first half of this year, the national fiscal revenue of 10.78 trillion yuan (RMB, Same is S $ 2.11 trillion), an increase of 3.4%year -on -year, which is generally compared to the 2019 full year in 2019 in the government work report earlier this year.Public budget revenue increased by 5 % year -on -year, 1.6 percentage points lower.

In the first half of the year, the national fiscal expenditure was 1.235 trillion yuan, a year -on -year increase of 10.7%, an increase significantly higher than the increase in fiscal revenue during the same period.This is the goal of an increase of 6.5%of the general public budget expenditure in 2019 at the beginning of the year in 2019, exceeding 4.2 percentage points.

Yang Zhiyong, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out to the Lianhe Zaobao in an interview that the main reason for the slowdown in the increase in government fiscal revenue in the first half of the year was the large -scale tax reduction measures implemented at the beginning of this year.

The official release of unprecedented trillion yuan in tax reduction dividends this year, through concessions to enterprises, to activate the vitality of the market, and pave the way for 6%to 6.5%of the annual economic growth targets.

Affected by this, the national tax revenue in the first half of the year increased slightly by 0.9 %, of which personal income tax revenue decreased by 30.6 % year -on -year.

The increase in fiscal expenditure is significantly higher than the increase in fiscal revenue. Whether it will cause China to break through the target of the deficit rate that was set earlier earlier.

Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a macroeconomicist, pointed out at the 40 -person forums held in Yichun, Heilongjiang on the 10th that monetary policy is currently difficult to promote the protagonist of the Chinese economy.Break through the existing deficit boundary.He believes that in the face of economic downlink pressure, China must expand its overall demand, and the tax reduction effect on the economy is not obvious compared to fiscal increase.Therefore, he believes that China can exceed the boundary of the fiscal deficit of 2.8%.

According to the official planning earlier this year, the size of the national budget deficit in 2019 was 2.76 trillion yuan, and the deficit rate was 2.8%, which was higher than the 2.6%of the previous year.Since 2011, although China's fiscal deficit rate has fluctuated, it has been controlled within 3 %.The 3 % red line comes from the Marstript treaty of the European Union. It makes principle regulations on the fiscal deficit rate rate of member states, and is also used as security standards for deficit rates by many countries.

Yang Zhiyong believes that even if it is a 3 % deficit rate, it is not an absolutely inevitable deadline. According to the actual situation of economic operation, China can appropriately increase the deficit rate to balance the fiscal revenue and expenditure, but to ensure the necessary risk prevention.

Most provinces cannot be enhanced

In the context of tax cuts and fees, local fiscal revenue has also been significantly affected.According to the 21st Century Business Herald, in the first half of this year, at least nine provinces (culvert autonomous regions, municipalities) had a negative growth of fiscal revenue, including Beijing, Chongqing, Guizhou, Heilongjiang, etc.;Less than 1 %.

Governments at all levels have lived tightly this year, but the contradictions between fiscal revenue and expenditure in various places are still prominent. Most provinces' fiscal revenue and expenditure in the first half of the year is not available.

Recently, Chinese social media has rumored a provincial financial revenue and expenditure statement, showing that in the first half of this year, among the provincial governments across the country, only Shanghai's finances have surplus.

In this regard, Yang Zhiyong pointed out that under the arrangement of the fiscal segmentation system, it is normal for local fiscal revenue to be less than expenditure.The central government's local transfer payment.

Data show that in 2018, the scale of the central government's local tax return and transfer payment was close to 7 trillion yuan, accounting for about 37 % of the local fiscal expenditure scale of the year.

Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, also pointed out in an interview that the differences in income and expenditure in the first half of the year can only show that the current government at all levels facing greater financial balance pressure.

As a measure of response, Zhao Xijun believes that the official may revitalize the assets of earlier investment by governments at all levels by increasing bond issuance and making up for the income and expenditure gap, and may further through reorganization and sale.

Zhao Xijun also said that in order to cope with the pressure of revenue and expenditure, governments at all levels may further reduce the funds of the three publicly funds (referring to the expenses generated by officials from abroad, official vehicles and business receptions), and strengthen fiscal discipline constraints and budget management.