(Los Angeles Composite Electric) The US multinational investment bank and financial service company Goldman Sachs Group said that the trade war between the United States and China has intensified, exacerbating the impact on economic growth, and the possibility of the US economic decline is increasing.
In a research report issued by Goldman Sachs, the economist of Goldman Sachs said: We expect the United States to impose tariffs on Chinese imported goods worth US $ 300 billion (about S $ 420 billion), which will take effect on schedule.
Therefore, Goldman Sachs said in a report to customers that it no longer expects that China and the United States can reach a trade agreement before the US presidential election in 2020.
U.S. President Trump announced on August 1st that it began 10 % tariffs on the remaining US $ 300 billion of the remaining Chinese imported products from September 1.China then stopped buying American agricultural products and allowed the RMB exchange rate to fall to its lowest level since 2008.The Trump administration recounted within a few hours and officially listed China as a exchange rate manipulator.
Goldman Sachs said that due to the impact of trade tensions than expected, it reduced the US's fourth -quarter economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1.8 %.
Goldman Sachs's three economists Jan Hatzius, Alec Phillips, and David Mericle reported: Overall, according to our estimation, the impact of the trade war on economic growth plus plusIt's big.
The report also said that the increase in investment costs caused by the interruption of supply chain may promote American companies to reduce domestic activities.This policy uncertainty may also reduce capital expenditure.
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At the same time, the former US Treasury Secretary Samos was interviewed by the United States Cable Television News (CNN) on Sunday that the United States and the global economy were the most dangerous moment since the global financial crisis worldwide 10 years ago due to the continued intensification of trade tensions.
Selsis described the trade war between Trump and China as a trade dispute between abuse and abuse and stupidity.
He said: In order to bring the benefits of unlikely to bring huge benefits, we have lost considerable funds under the influence of uncertainty, reduction of investment, and reduced employment opportunities.There is no doubt that American workers will become poorer, the profitability of American companies will decline, and the US economy will become worse because of the path we choose.
However, Sammer also said that despite risks, he believes that it is unlikely to have a crisis like the last economic recession.
Sumerz was the White House economic consultant during the last economic recession in the United States, and he was also the chief economist of the World Bank.He also said last week that the continuous upgrading of the trade war between the United States and China is promoting the first decline in the world economy for 10 years, and investors are asking politicians and central bank governors to quickly take action to turn around.
Sumeris told Bloomberg TV at the time that in the United States, the risk of economic recession was much higher than the necessary level, and it was much higher than the level two months ago.He said: You can play fire often without any unfortunate incidents, but if you do too many times, you will eventually be burned.
