Xing Yuqing: Whether it is economic decoupling or technical decoupling theory, the root is the loss of the recreation of the recreation; as long as China opens the door, the Sino -US economy cannot be decoupled.
Many analysts who are concerned about Sino -US trade war believe that the purpose of Trump's trade war is to achieve the decoupling of Sino -US.With the continuous upgrading of the Sino -US trade war, more and more people hold this view.China and the United States have also expanded from economic decoupling to technical decoupling.The author believes that whether it is economic dislocation theory or technical decoupling theory, its root is the sense of loss of regional businessist thinking.
At present, the Trump administration levies a 25%punitive tariff on China ’s US $ 25 billion of goods to the United States.There is no doubt that the 25%of the tariffs increase the threshold for Chinese products to enter the US market, reducing the competitiveness of Chinese products in the US market, thereby reducing China's exports to the United States and reducing US dependence on Chinese products.This is the first evidence of the believers who believe in the description.
The second evidence of the deductive theory of believers is currently happening. With China as a global value chain to the American product manufacturing and assembly center, China transferred from China to a regional reorganization from China to a third country.Most of the products exported to the United States are based on the global value chain.On the global value chain, China's exporting companies basically belong to foreign multinational companies with value chain leaders. They passively accept what production, how much production, and instructions to export.In order to avoid the punitive tariffs of Chinese manufacturing into the United States, leading companies with global value chain will send orders for the US market to other countries with the same foundry capabilities, or propose processing companies in ChinaThe production capacity is transferred to a third country, or the production facilities they have in China are transferred out.These behaviors will obviously weaken China as the importance of exporting to American product processing bases and weaken the connection between China and the United States.
On the surface, these two evidences seem to be the iron evidence that supports China -US disassembly theory.However, the use of these two evidence to launch decoustal theory is completely the logic of regional businessist thinking. It only considers the importance of China's exports of US exports to bilateral economic integration, and completely ignores the important role of China's imports from the United States on the economic integration of the two countries.The economic integration of any two countries is two -way.The economic integration of China and the United States is not only determined by China exports to the United States.China imported products and services from the United States is also an important part of the integration of Sino -US economy.Summary that the integration of China and the United States is the export of products to the United States. As a base for exporting to American products, China is a typical businessist thinking and an important reason for the current Sino -US trade war.
If U.S. tariffs have caused China's exports to US $ 100 billion to the United States, at the same time, China ’s imports from the United States increased by 100 billion US dollars. From the perspective of trade, the economic integration of China and the United States has not changed at all.Opening the Chinese market to increase its right to imports to the United States is in the hands of China.As long as China has a large market with a large market with 1.4 billion consumers, China and the United States cannot be decoupled.After the author never believes that China reduces tariffs and non -tariff barriers or even completely eliminate it, American entrepreneurs will refuse to sell things in China for the so -called value, beliefs, and systems for the so -called China and the United States.Make a lot of money in the Chinese market.As long as American companies continue to export products and services in China, the Sino -US economy cannot be decoupled.
Investment and two -way communication are also an important part of the economic integration of China and the United States.Chinese people to invest and study in the United States can increase the economic integration of the two countries; Americans invest in China and study abroad can also increase the integration of China and the United States.The U.S. government set up obstacles to Chinese companies' investment in the United States with national security, which has weakened the driving force for Chinese companies to invest in the United States; China can greatly eliminate obstacles of American companies in China to encourage American companies to invest.The American consulate adds obstacles to the visa of Chinese students and scholars in the United States, hindering the exchanges between the two countries.China can set up scholarships specifically for Americans to study in China. For example, the Ministry of Education takes 10%or even 20%of scholarships for Americans to encourage them to study degrees or communicate with Chinese universities.China can also set up a professor of American universities similar to the US Fabred Scholarship and conduct long -term academic exchanges in China.
As a sovereign country, the United States can set up various obstacles to Chinese goods, capital and personnel into the United States.However, as long as China maintains the policy of opening the United States, more imported products and services from the United States, open more investment in American companies, and encourage American scholars and students to come to China, China and the United States will not be decoupled.The author firmly believes that the scale of China's economy and the potential of future development are unable to refuse American companies.
The Trump administration included Huawei and several other companies in the export control list.This is the main basis of technical desuters.It is also a argument for the evolution of the so -called Sino -US trade war.The author has written on FT Chinese website, criticizing the Trump administration to use American technology monopoly to increase the trade negotiation chips.However, the author does not think that this is the beginning of China -US technology.In addition to Huawei, ZTE is China's second largest communications equipment manufacturer. At present, ZTE can still import any components required from the United States. ZTE's stock has risen from a minimum of 13 to 33 yuan.Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo mobile phones need to use Google's Android operating system and Qualcomm chip, which are not blacklisted by the United States.Lenovo is the world's largest computer manufacturer, accounting for 1/5 of the global PC shipments.Lenovo Computer requires Intel's chips and using Microsoft operating systems. The Trump administration has not banned Lenovo from obtaining necessary components from American manufacturers.From the Huawei incident, it is introduced that China -US technology decoupling is a one -sided understanding of China's high -tech industry.China's high -tech companies and industries are not just Huawei.If there is no high -tech company in China except Huawei, it is China's sorrow
Chinese enterprises have strong learning and imitation ability.After more than 40 years of high -speed development, the technical gap between Chinese high -tech companies and American companies is getting smaller and smaller. In order to prevent Chinese companies from surpassing technology, American companies have become conservative in technological exchanges. The US government emphasizes smart property protection protection.This is normal rational thinking.Do Chinese companies do not want to protect their technical secrets and do n’t worry about the companies in the future surpass themselves?For national security, the United States has been embarked on China on some high -tech products; China also prohibits Drums in the drums on the grounds of national security.Decompatic beauty technology.
Whether China and the United States are decoupled cannot be unilaterally decided by the US government and politicians.China also has the key to the integration of China and the United States.As long as China opens the door, the profitability of capital and technology will promote the Chinese market in the Chinese and high -tech companies, and the Chinese and American economies will not be decoupled.
Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view
