Cao Xin: Trump ’s diplomatic guidance ideas and practices have brought diplomacy between the United States and East Asian allies into a new era, and the foundation of the multilateral cooperation structure will tend to disintegrate.

One of the focus of international public opinion last week was the upgrade of conflicts between Japan and South Korea, so that the extension of the Japanese and Korean military intelligence protection agreement was once a problem.South Korea ’s Central Daily reported on July 16: The Qingwatai plans to treat the military intelligence protection agreement as a bargaining chip. Even if it is not immediately proposed to terminate the agreement, it is planned to consider it.Considering the security needs of the United States and Japan, not the security needs of South Korea.

Under such a strategy of South Korea, it is difficult to coordinate bilateral relations in the United States. But the question is: How is this bowl of water flat?

Moreover, does the United States all over the United States dare to take a series of sanctions against another allies in the United States in the United States without knowing the United States?

The true meaning behind this is: the foundation of the United States, Japan, and South Korea's three -sided alliance structure is tending to disintegrate.

The root cause of Trump's keen on bilateral diplomacy instead of multilateral changes is first in Trump.

The difference between Trump and the previous US president in diplomatic is: he likes bilateral diplomacy, not multilateral diplomacy and multilateralism.He once said: Now every country in the world is using the huge market in the United States to earn American money, so the United States is actually in the market position of the buyer in bilateral economic and trade relations with any country. ThereforeBilateral trade is an absolute advantage and absolute victory; and in multilateral diplomatic occasions, the United States has never occupied cheap and has always been in a state of interest damage, such as in the WTO framework.

Under such a concept, the first thing he did after he took office was to announce the withdrawal of the cross -Pacific partnership agreement (TPP) that he had withdrawn from Obama.Because according to his above views, although Obama has realized that the United States has damaged interests under multilateral framework like WTO and cannot be solved by any problems, so I have a small -scale WTO composed of developed countries, that is, TPP, trying to tryStarting the stove first, but still not get rid of the restraint of multilateral diplomacy, and many countries in this small circle are actually large households that use American markets to make American money, such as Japan, South Korea, Canada and other countries.He later used bilateral diplomatic platforms to force these countries to make concessions on economic and trade issues. It also followed this logic and repeatedly succeeded.

The above point of view is Trump's foreign guidance. Therefore, in practice, he uses bilateral diplomacy as the main platform to realize US national interests. He is not interested in multilateral diplomacy. He is not enthusiastic.

This diplomatic guidance is manifested in the Asia -Pacific region, and he strongly supports the Indo -Pacific strategy.In this strategy, he is committed to direct management of related countries.Obama is completely different. He is committed to strengthening the power of the allies and contracting defense and security to allies to reduce the daily burden of the United States. In the end, the United States played a role at a critical moment.In this model of Obama, the United States needs the unity between allies, and in the Trump mode, he does not need to care about whether the relationship between allies is harmonious, because it belongs to multilateral diplomacy.Energy, and often difficult to please, he only needs to manage bilateral allies, such as the United States, Japan, the United States and South Korea relations.And this management model makes Trump the arbitrator, the most favorable to the United States.So we see that after Wen Zaiyin invited Trump to coordinate the current Japanese and South Korean relations, he immediately lifted the shelf and showed reluctance.

According to a report from the Kyodo News Agency last week, Trump revealed to the media at the White House on July 19 that Wen Zaiyin hoped that he would come forward to mediate Japan and South Korea's opposition. He said that if both sides (Japan and South Korea) have this willingness, I may intervene.He signaled that the United States came forward to mediation not only in South Korea, but also the Japanese government's proposal, and Japan has no such demands.This is to improve the threshold for him to mediate.

According to reports, Trump also pointed out that the mediation of Japanese and Korean relations is a work that needs to be devoted.This shows the attitude that he may not be involved.

Trump also introduced that when Wen Zaiyin asked him to come forward, he asked Wen Zaiyin: How many questions do I have to participate in?Kyodo Society commented that in the face of many problems such as North Korea and Iran, the United States may still be in a dilemma between Japan and South Korea, which are all allies, and Trump seems to be hurting Wen Zaiyin's request.

Trump ’s diplomatic guidance ideas and practice have brought diplomacy between the United States and East Asian allies into a new era. In this era, the foundation of the multilateral cooperation structure will tend to disintegrate, and the multilateral structure will be diluted.Bilateral cooperation architecture will become the general trend of history.Therefore, today's conflict between Japan and South Korea is actually coming sooner or later.

Once North Korea is no longer an enemy, the foundation of the cooperation framework of the Korean -American and American alliance will also be lost

As far as the current tension between Japan and South Korea is concerned, the policy of Wen Zaiyin's left government is probably the biggest variable that causes this situation.

A very interesting thing happened last week.On July 19, the North Korean Central News Agency published an article, publicly supporting the Wenzai government to confront Japan, and called on the whole nation to unite and fight against Japan for thousands of years.Regardless of whether North Korea's motivation is in the United States, Japan and South Korea, but this behavior is objective.

As we all know, one of the main foundations of the three -sided cooperation structure of the United States, Japan and South Korea Alliance is to respond to the North Korea and North Korea. The United States and South Korea Alliance is even more so. The most important and direct goal is North Korea.The Wen Zaiyin government inherited the traditional policies of the Korean left government, and regarded illegally supporting North Korea as the object of reconciliation and unity. It tried to help economically and fulfill its efforts to protect the US military strike.To this end, Wen Zaiyin's government repeatedly worked in the United States and even interfered with related plans and arrangements in the United States.In addition, like previous left -school governments, although there is often no good ending in the end of such a pro -northern policy, Wen Zaiyin's government is infatuated and righteous.

This policy has caused a general dislike of the American political circles as the allies, both in the US government and Congress.The Korean media reported last week that an American source said: The U.S. government regards Japan as a global issue partner, and South Korea only wants to discuss the Korean issue with the United States. American officials even publicly call South Korea LSQUO.Issue country) rsquo;.

For Japan, North Korea and North Korea are more sensitive.North Korea has made it leap in Japan while experimenting ballistic missiles, and the abduction of Japanese problems has not been resolved so far.Therefore, in Japanese folks, they are generally disgusted with North Korea and North Korea; for the Japanese government, they are dislike and use them at the same time.

In addition, there is another historical issue for South Korea and Japan.Regarding the historical comfort women and forced labor issues, the Wen Zaiyin government adopted a very different way of dealing with the Park Geun -hye government, which caused a common dislike in Japan.This consistent anti -Japanese nationalist wave has caused many senior Japanese media to report that in the current domestic environment, who is the leader must pursue a tough policy for South Korea!

Because of the above factors, Abe said in publicly about the facts of Japanese sanction in South Korea: Wen Zaiyin did not comply with the agreement between the previous Korean government and Japan on historical issues;The South Korean government cannot trust it, so it is necessary to control the export of sensitive materials to South Korea.

When North Korea and North Korea are no longer an enemy, but the object of reconciliation and solidarity, the three -sided cooperation structure of the United States, Japan and South Korea Alliance, especially the Basis of the Korean and American Alliance, will no longer exist.

Another question is whether the Japanese and Korean conflicts are in the United States to hit South Korea by default in the United States?After all, Japan sanction in the United States.

Sources from Japan said that there is a representative judgment in the Japanese press that believes that the United States requires him (Abe) to knock on Wen (in Yin), which is the case.

Objective analysis, Japan chooses to be high -techIn terms of product sanctions in South Korea, South Korea has almost no power to fight back, and this is just the beginning. It has not affected the automotive and machinery industries.Wen Zaiyin can only find the United States for help. Of course, this means that Trump has more rare points to restrict Wen Zaiyin.Considering that the US -DPRK's upcoming negotiations without South Korea's participation and the decision of the North Korean Nuclear and Security Council, Wen Zaiyin's different attitudes and behaviors have always been a reasonable speculation.In any case, Trump has an extra fact that restrains Wen Zaiyin. It should be an indisputable fact.

(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.