Recently, the major international prediction agencies have revised the global economic outlook, and the attitude is becoming more conservative. The reasons are intricate, including the U.S. -China trade war that has been heating rapidly since March, and continuous structural adjustment in China, leading to economic growth, the development of Brexit development issuesUncertainty, etc., are all possible factor.However, even if the US -China trade war is not the culprit, it must be one of the main reasons for the downside of the global economy.
First of all, according to IMF estimates, as US President Trump continues to expand the trade dispute between the United States and let the tension heated up, the increase in tariffs increased this year will reduce the global GDP in 2020.Tariffs increase, and the decrease in GDP will reach 0.5%.
Secondly, the current global supply chain system closely connects mainland China and other economies such as Germany, Australia, Taiwan, Southeast Asia and other economies to form a symbiotic and prosperous system.Therefore, when the United States provokes a trade war with China, the negative effect is definitely not only to be in China, but also the impact of increasing the cost of supply chain through the trade network, so that many countries participating in the global supply chain will reduce economic growth due to export demand due to export demand due to export demandAnd frustrated.
Third, the slowest speed of global trade has slowed to the financial tsunami recently, mainly due to the significant drama of Europe and Japan's exports to China.Worse, and directly lower global growth.
More importantly, due to the intensive trade situation and the increased policy uncertainty, it will naturally reduce global investment and weaken corporate confidence, thereby increasing the risk of downward economy.For example, in April in Germany, industrial production was -1.9%, which was far lower than -0.5%of market expectations, and Volkswagen, the world's largest car manufacturer, also said that the company's global sales results in January to May this year have deteriorated by 5%.The main reason is that sales in China decreased by 7%to 1.2 million.At the same time, the German industry is also full of anxiety whether the United States levies high tariffs on automobile imports, which seriously cracks down on corporate confidence and production investment decisions.This situation is exactly the example of the US -China trade war clearly dragging global economic growth.
The trouble is that even though the United States and China held a special practice meeting (G20) the G20 (G20) of the United States and China a few days ago, and reached a suspension agreement, it eased the smell of smoke and nitrate.Determination.First, Trump believes that the US -China trade war is pushing the US economy, and the slowdown of global economic growth has nothing to do with the US trade policy.In the interview with US Treasury Secretary, US Finance Minister said that as early as in early May, the Asian and European economy had grown slowly before the U.S. -China trade negotiations had cracks, which showed that it had nothing to do with the tension with the US -China trade relationship.It can be seen that when the United States goes to the president and to high -level officials, it does not think that the US -China trade war is the main cause of the global economic growth momentum. Unless China is willing to release considerable benefits, the United States will not easily stop the trade war.The footsteps.
Secondly, in the eyes of Trump, the US-China trade war is a zero-sum game (Zero-Sum Game). Adhering to the winner of the loser as long as there are winners, it is not considered a win-win situation in the two countries.If the US -China trade deficit has never been effectively eliminated through this trade war, for Trump, the United States is the loser of the game.It is conceivable that Trump, who is biased and strong, is absolutely impossible to make this result appear. It is bound to use all available resources to try to win this trade war.
Third, for the global supply chain, whether it is Trump's use of technological advantages to choke the throat of Huawei, China Netcom Factory, or keep talking about China, it is necessary to build tariffs and non -tariff trade barriers.The global supply chain is stable, allowing many companies to transfer several production lines out of China based on self -protection.When the global supply chain transfer situation has taken shape, it will not stop due to the first or second US -China truce agreement.
To put it bluntly, even if the current US -China trade war has led to a limited possibility of global economic growth and warming, in the context of uncertain direction in the future, Taiwan, which depends on exports of economic growth, must not be exported.The rest of the war is at ease, both the government, the enterprise, or the public must have the psychological preparation of long -term anti -Japanese war. Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
