Zheng Yongnian column
China and the United States first reached a trade suspension agreement during the Summit of the G20 (G20) Summit in Osaka, Japan, and decided to restart trade negotiations.Regardless of future negotiations, this is good news for China and the United States and the entire world.This at least shows that the two big powers still have the willingness to continue negotiations.
It is natural. As the two largest economies in the world, Sino -US relations are not only the two major relations between the two major countries, but also affecting many other countries.These countries and the two major countries of China and the United States have complex and deep relationships. When the relationship between China and the United States is stable, they can benefit from both sides, but once the relationship between the two countries worsens, they will be deeply affected.Some countries may obtain some benefits in the short term (such as entering these countries from industries and capital exited in China), but in the long run, these countries can not avoid the negative impact brought by the geopolitical competition between China and the United States.
The Sino -US trade war can have such a wide and negative economic impact, which makes many people do not understand the trade war between China and the United States.The trade war is obviously not a win -win game, but a defeat, that is, what people call the damage is not good, the damage is one thousand, and the self -harm is 800; not only that, the trade war also affects many other countries, many or even the United States allies.
More importantly, today people define the economic conflict between China and the United States as a trade war or economic war, indicating that this has greatly surpassed the category of traditional economic competition and entered a state of war.Traditionally, people generally believe that economic competition is inevitable, and economic competition is not zero -sum game, but war is often zero -sum game.This makes many people worry that if the trade war between China and the United States is continuously upgraded today, it will lead to another type of war, whether it is a hot war or a Cold War.
This concern is not only reasonable, but also necessary.People can regard the economic and trade relations between the two countries as the result of economic regional and globalization.Two countries that do not associate with each other will not develop any economic connection, and it does not matter trade conflicts.The deeper the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries, the easier the conflict will occur, and the greater the negative impact.Historically, the regional and globalization of the economy has indeed brought great benefits to participating countries, but it has continuously guided conflicts and even war.
Over the years, people have always regarded today's situation and metaphor to the situation before the First World War.Prior to the First World War, the world economy has gone through unprecedented economic regionalization and globalization. Frequent economic and trade exchanges and economic interrelationships have not only occurred between European countries, but also between European countries and other regional countries.However, the First World War happened in such a situation.Afterwards, there were a lot of Zhuge Liang, but no one would think that the war happened so soon between these economically dependent countries.
Economic competitive lead zero -sum game war
Indeed, if it is only a economic perspective, it is difficult to understand why non -zero -and -game economic competition will lead to the war of zero -sum games.However, from the perspective of a deeper political and economic relationship, it is not difficult to find that conflicts and war are also the norm of the country, just like the economic and trade between them.There is a huge price in any form of war, and big wars often lead to countless losses of life and property.But why do humans still war?
German society and political scientist Franz Oppenheimer summarized two methods when discussing the origin of the country, namely economic methods and political methods.Those who rely on power and strength.Obonheimer himself tends to political methods, because of its experience, since the beginning of human beings, politics has never left. From the primitive tribe to modern countries, violence is the eternal source of the origin and development of the country.
After modern commercial capitalism, especially after the beginning of the industrialization, people have a completely different view of the roots of war and how to avoid war.Among them, British philosopher Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, found the most effective economic method for the development of the country.Smith believes that the state can get rich and accumulate wealth through labor division of labor and trade, without having to go through war and plunder.After Smith, David Ricardo further developed a comparative advantage theory to demonstrate the effectiveness of economic methods.
However, not everyone agrees with Smith and Li Jiatu.Marx is the most typical. He believes that wars in modern times, whether it is civil war or national war, simply speaking, is the natural result of capitalist expansion.In a society, capitalism has created class differentiation, leading to conflict between interests, and the extreme is the civil war. At the international level, capitalism has led to the conflict between the interests of the country, and the extreme is war.
Economic factors can curb and avoid the view of war, and have been developed and spread unprecedented after World War II.In the words of economic historian Xiong Peter, if nationalism has been the root of war in modern times, it can be expected that nationalism is only a statement of human beings that are antagonistic and savage, which will eventually disappear.Think of experience, this is mainly for two reasons.
The first is that people see the cruelty of war (especially the World War I and World War II).There are no winners in the war, and everyone is a loser.The World War I and World War II had a devastating impact on the economy of European countries.The second is the economic integration began after World War II.Economic integration has begun from the concept of common market in Europe and extended to other regions.The integration of Western markets and its western market extends to other non -Western markets, effectively connecting relevant countries together, and promoting economic development.
It is especially important that in the 1980s, a new wave of globalization caused by the US President Reagan and British Prime Minister Sachel's New Liberalist Revolution, which has evolved a vast world into a global village in a short time.The positive effects that the country's economy is highly dependent on each other is reflected in theoretical dependence of international relations.
The theory of mutual dependence and the no war theory of democratic countries that originated from modern German philosopher Kant has become the mainstream of Western liberal international relations in the past few decades.It is convinced that the high economic dependence between the country and the political democratization can stay away from humans and realize Kant's permanent peace and ideal state.
This liberal international relations theory also basically determines the attitude and method of the United States to deal with relations with other countries.That is, the United States must promote the democratization of the political system of those countries with economic relations with the United States through economic methods (openness, market access, integration, etc.).In other words, for non -Western countries, there is a political prerequisite to develop economic relations with the United States (Western) countries.It is also clear that this political premise is fully reflected in trade, investment, and international assistance in the United States (Western) countries.
The essence of conflict between state relationships
However, the theory of liberalism (whether it is an economist or a political scientist) more reflects the ideal of the believers in the world, not the reflection of reality.For Western realists, the economic dependence does lead to the interest correlation between the country, increasing the difficulty of dealing with the relationship between the country, but there is absolutely not the essence of the conflict between the relationship between the country.Liberalism excessively exaggerates the benefits brought by economic globalization, but greatly underestimated or ignored the negative impact of economic globalization.
In historical perspective, economic globalization will inevitably cause two results: first, the differences and differentiation of income within a society; second, the differences and differentiation of income between countries.In some countries, the differences between internal income and social differentiation often lead to economic conflicts between different social classes, and even evolved into civil war; in other countries, internal conflicts have become conflicts between countries, that is, war.When many countries were involved at the same time, they evolved into world wars.
The economy is related to interests, and unfair interest distribution will lead to war, whether it is civil war or war between the country.That is to say, economic factors can indeed lead to war.But if people only understand war from economic factors, it is still too simple.In most occasions, political factors are even more important than economic factors. People are fighting for interests (economy), but also for honor and fear. Honor and fear are more about politics.In fact, once the war is involved, political logic is dominant.Von Clausewitz, a modern Prussian military strategy, said that the war was the continuation of politics through another means, and it undoubtedly revealed the political nature of war.
What Clausewitz said was almost eternal.For many years, people have been trying to surpass economic factors and find the root of war.People cursed the war and prayed that the war would no longer happen, but at the same time people praised the war.Human nature is to tend to moralization of themselves and demonize others.Even for aggression, the invaders can always find the legitimacy and justice of the war, and praise the war for this.From the war between the ancient Greek cities to the Middle Ages Crusades, the war has always become the object of people's singing.
In modern times, war has higher morality.After the French Revolution, the nationalist banner based on the theory of sovereignty countries guided humans to enter an endless war.Various arguments and theory of praising the war come out of the cage one by one.This is particularly manifested in modern romantic and social Darwinists.Modern romanticism began in British literature. When spreading to Germany, it entered the field of political philosophy to praise war and violence. For the sake of national interests (whether it is unified or developed), everything is at all.In Social Darwinism, war is not only an inevitable product of the survival of the fittest, but also the highest standard for testing human quality.
Although Darwin's theory of evolution does not have obvious morality and progress, it has become progressive and civilized in Darwinism.Therefore, war is not only a means for the survival of the fittest, but also a tool for human evolution, the elimination of civilization, and the replacement of progress, backward, and survival of the fittest.
The entire era of imperialism (especially from World War I to World War II), people are convinced that the victory of the war is to measure the pros and cons of a country, and the powers are not tired of the war.British thinker George Bernard Shaw once said that most humans are investing in death rather than life, that is, people use the most investment for war weapons, not improving people's lives.
How much changes have happened to this situation now?To a large extent, it is indeed a completely different era.As mentioned above, the globalization of the economy has made countries depend on each other. You have me and me, which objectively increases the difficulty and cost of war.At the same time, in terms of discourse, there are not many people who publicly preach the war.However, if it is realistic enough, it is not difficult to find that this may be just appearance, and the nature of human beings has not changed.
Like the previous globalization, this wave of globalization still has the same problem, that is, the inequality within society and the inequality between the country, and extreme inequality can guide the conflict of internal and external at any time.In terms of discourse, people just express the concepts of survival of the fittest in a more clever way, including civilized conflict theory and democratic value alliance theory.
Furthermore, like many other behaviors of humans, since ancient times, war has been highly institutionalized and institutionalized.For the sovereignty countries participating in the war, the war has the beginning of the ceremony and the ending ceremony. The process of the war is full of various rituals.The war was highly institutionalized due to sovereign state, and it was also moralized and righteous because of sovereign state.Since World War II, except for the completely defeated Germany, no country has reflected on the war.The defeated country such as Japan has never reflected the war, and the victory of the country is still complacent to the victory.
In fact, from a deep level, people can say that sovereign countries are even the most effective tool for war.The sovereign state or the government is the main body of the war, but those who promote the government to launch or participate in the war are the various interest groups behind the government.Capital can become the root cause of war, because capital needs to use the government to open the door of other countries, open up the world market, plunder the resources of other countries, and protect their overseas interests.
But in more occasions, other interest groups can even obtain huge benefits from the war than capital.For example, the huge role of the US security and military system in war, so that many Americans believe that war is a tool for this interest group to pursue its own interests.It is difficult to imagine how to maintain such a huge war machine without war or war.
What is even more worrying is the rise of extreme recognition of politics under global conditions.Today's political identity has become a bottomless line.Not only the differences in the identity between different ethnic groups, races, religions, civilizations, and countries are rapidly expanding, and even the interior of these units continues to differentiate.The nation, race, religion, civilization, and country.All identities including nation, country, and civilization are made artificially.In this way, a conflict or even civil war in a society is becoming inevitable like the war between the country.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Professor of East Asia Research Institute
The article only represents personal point of view
