Yang Danxu: Can Xite meet the trade war this week?

The best result of the Xi Society was the first consensus between the Chinese and US dollars, and the trade team between the two parties resumed negotiations.The picture shows (left) and Trump (right) in November 2017 in the Great Hall of the People in the Great Hall of the People in Trump.(Reuters file photo)

Special

The G20 Summit will be held from 28th to 29th. The time of the Xi special meeting has not yet been released, but it is understood that it is planned to fly to Osaka at nearly 1 pm on the 27th. Trump arrived at 7 pm that night. Basically, the two were ruled out.The possibility of meeting before the opening of the G20 summit.If Trump said, it was a extended meeting, which was likely to refer to the arrangement of the G20 Summit on the 29th of the G20 Summit on the 29th of the G20 summit.

The first week of China and the United States will hold a bilateral meeting during the leaders of the G20 (G20) Leadership Summit in Osaka, Japan. This is the first time that the two heads of heads of the two countries will meet after the Sino -US trade war is fully upgraded in May.

The Sino -US game has spread to the fields of economy and trade, technology, national security, and humanistic exchanges. This meeting not only determines whether the trade war can turn peaks, but also likely to become a key node that affects the future direction of Sino -US relations.

Regarding the forthcoming Xi Special Meeting, the United States recently released a signal to create a positive atmosphere, Vice President Pence delayed the speech of China policy on the 24th of this month.Create an atmosphere for economic and trade and talks.

On the other hand, China has a tough posture. The official reiterated the principles of mutual respect and equality and mutual benefit at a hair dryer the day before yesterday, and proposed that both parties must compromise.

The time of Xite has not yet been released, but it is understood that it is planned to arrive in Osaka at nearly 1 pm on the 27th, and Trump arrived at 7:00 that night, basically excluding the possibility of the two people before the opening of the G20 summit.

The G20 Summit will be held from 28th to 29th. If the Xi Special Association said, as Trump said, it is an Extended Meeting.The summit was held on the 29th.

Can the Sino -US Supreme Leader's meeting create a turning space for the upgrading Sino -US trade war? How will the two make strategic judgments for Sino -US relations?Lianhe Zaobao will take you to understand the five highlights of Xi Special Association.

1. What is the fundamental issue of China -US relations that China wants to talk about?

On the 18th of this month, it was a general phone call with Trump that it was necessary to exchange opinions with Trump's fundamental issues on the development of Sino -US relations at the meeting.

Scholars of interviewees pointed out that although the prevention of the trade war is an important goal of the practice, the fundamental issues referred to imply that Beijing hopes to discuss the general direction of the relationship between the two countries.

Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at the Nanyang University of Science and Technology of Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore, pointed out to Lianhe Zaobao that the downward trend of Sino -US relations is obvious, and the contradictions are becoming increasingly fierce. Whether the US policy in the United States in the Cold War is worrying.Confirm the strategic cause of the United States.

He judged that China was willing to discuss the differences in the fields of trade and other policies with the United States, but it was unable to accept the United States to change the Chinese economic system or curb that China became a powerful country.If the United States has a deeper strategic cause, China will think that there is no need to concessions repeatedly on trade issues.

Some analysts point out that the Sino -US trade friction has continuously spread to science and technology, strategy and other fields in the past year, highlighting the comprehensive contusion of China and curbing China's challenge to the United States. It is a new judgment of the United States' strategy in China.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, therefore believes that China may reiterate at the Xi special conference, although China has developed rapidly, but has no intention to impact the advantages of the United States; in addition, China will emphasizerespect.

2. Is the Trump administration willing to make concessions?

Some observations believe that the impact of the trade war on the American agricultural state is now emerging, and the waves against tariffs against the US business community are also getting higher and higher. In the face of the pressure of campaign pressure, Trump has a greater motivation to make concessions this time.However, the stance of the US senior executives on the China trade war may become the biggest obstacle to China and the United States reaching an agreement.

Peter Harris, assistant professor at the Department of Political Science, the State University of Colorado, analyzed that Trump has two options to accept an agreement with China to keep face and announce the victory of trade in China;Show tough style to obtain domestic support.

Harris judged that the former can make the stock market rise, and the Trump's temptation is greater in the face of domestic election campaigns. However, Trump's consultant team seems to have differences and may pull him in different directions.

Li Mingjiang also analyzed that Trump's goal is not consistent with his team. Trump hopes to make concessions in China and also hopes to use the agreement to increase his political chips in the election, but his team does not have the second consideration.

Earlier in a call with Trump, he said he hoped that the United States would treat Chinese companies fairly.According to the outside world, the suppression of Chinese high -tech companies such as Huawei may become a topic of Xite.It is also reported that China hopes that Huawei will become part of a package agreement for trade negotiations.

However, Shi Yinhong believes that the United States will not make principles changes on the Huawei issue, because the core of the United States launches a trade war is to do everything in the United States to prevent China's high -tech trade and development.

3. Will China's Korean card work work?

The Osaka Ichi Association was finalized on the 18th of this month. Two days later, Chinese leaders conducted a state visit to North Korea and received high -standard courtesy. This was interpreted as China ’s influence on North Korea and for favorable chips for Sino -US trade negotiations.

David Dollar, a senior researcher at the Brookings Society of the United States Think Tank, described in an interview that recently a reminder to North Korea's state visit is a reminder that the United States requires Chinese cooperation in reducing security risks from North Korea.It is one of the topics of the Xi special meeting.

However, whether the North Korean card is sufficient to make the United States on the negotiating table depends on the basic judgment of the United States on the role of China on the North Korean North Korean nuclear issue.

Shi Yinhong did not deny that in the game of North Korea and the United States, the dominant power is in the hands of Kim Jong -un. The situation and role that China can create is quite limited, but if Trump is too nervous, it will be good for China.

Some analysts also pointed out that although North Korea -US relations have been deadlocked after the talks in Hanoi, in view of the recent security threats of North Korea, North Korea's nuclear issue is not the top priority of the Trump administration.

Li Mingjiang said: As long as North Korea does not engage in other actions or provocations, major countries will continue to implement the resolution of the United Nations Security Council. For the United States, the North Korean nuclear issue is not so urgent to break or resolve.

Fourth, Hong Kong becomes unknown in the Sino -US game?

After Hong Kong recently made a storm due to the amendment of the Fugm Regulations, Trump responded twice, but both said that Beijing and Hong Kong will solve related issues on their own.As his statement was interpreted as when he was unwilling to put the Hong Kong issue in the Sino -US negotiation agenda, US Secretary of State Pompeo told the media that Trump would talk about the Hong Kong issue in G20.

Chinese officials warned before the Xi special meeting that the Hong Kong issue was China's internal affairs and never allowed foreign countries to intervene.The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zhang Jun, clearly stated at the blower of Chinese and foreign media the day before yesterday: The G20 will not discuss the Hong Kong issue, we alsoG20 will not be allowed to discuss Hong Kong issues.

Hong Kong scholars and vice president of the National Hong Kong and Macau Research Association Liu Zhaojia judged in an interview that Hong Kong is not currently the interests of the United States. Trump, who wants to reach an agreement with China, does not want to have extraordinary branches. Therefore, Hong Kong will not be a topic of the Xi Special Association.

He said that the United States wants to use Hong Kong as a chess piece, but it is also known that it is not practical to use this as a chip to make a major concession. If Trump really raises a Hong Kong issue, it will only make the negotiation atmosphere between each other worse.

Chen Haotian, the convener of the Hong Kong National Party, recently launched a network mobilization to call for supporters to protest in Japan. This Hong Kong -people demonstration may become a struggle outside the G20 show.

In this regard, Liu Zhaojia believes that this may make Beijing embarrassing, but similar demonstrations occur outside the international conference venue, but it is only a bit of harassment of the G20.

From the perspective of the leaders of various countries in G20, Liu Zhaojia believes that all parties have more important issues such as global economy, finance, trade, and Iranian issues, and North Korea's nuclear issues.He said: Other countries can not offend China because of Hong Kong problems, and there is no benefit at all, but it will cause the Chinese government to resent and dissatisfaction with them.

5. What are the most likely results of Xi special?

According to the analysis of scholars, the best result of the Xi Society was the first consensus between China and the United States, and the trading team of the two sides resumed negotiations, while the United States suspended the tariff plan for Chinese goods to China products for another 300 billion US dollars (406 billion yuan).

But even so, Shi Yinhong also believes that the current China and the United States are huge, and the future negotiations are not optimistic.

He judged that one of the purpose of the United States to launch a trade war is to force China to change a large part of the domestic system and economic model. If it cannot be done, it is a bad agreement for Trump, but China cannot make concessions in this regard, otherwise it will be in this regard, otherwise it will be in this regard, otherwise it will be in this regard.Lost the autonomy of reform.

Global Times editor -in -chief Hu Xijin said in Twitter yesterday that the current atmosphere of China and the United States is not good.He also said that according to his understanding, China's position is to maintain a constructive and positive attitude towards the Xite Society, but it is also fully prepared for the failure of the negotiations and the upgrade of the trade war.

Some analysts also believe that the restoration of trade negotiations cannot reverse the decline in the overall decline in Sino -US relations. The situation of the competition between Sino -US new types will be a new normal for the relationship between the two countries.

Harris is vigilant, the worst case is that the United States upgraded the trade war after the Xite meeting.He said: This will send a signal to China. The Trump administration is not interested in stabilizing Sino -US relations, and he is more inclined to destroy Sino -US relations and weaken China in various means.