It is difficult to understand the Sino -US trade war itself.It is difficult to understand how to make a larger economic decoupling and affect the long -term strategic relationship between China and the United States.Earlier this year, I wrote in an article entitled to avoid war. Sino -US relations that were constantly shaped after World War II had experienced a new major turning point in 2018.

Fifth stage of Sino -US relations

The first stage of relations between the two countries is a strategic hostile period. From the founding of the People's Republic of China to the Nixon and Kissinger period, they resumed relations with China.The next 20 years is the second stage. Sino -US strategic cooperation anti -Moscow was disintegrated until the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991.The third stage is the 20 -year economic contact period. The prominent performance is that China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, and China began to become a world factory until the end of the global financial crisis.The fourth stage is the rise of China, which has become more confident in the second decade of the 21st century. At this time, China has implemented more active diplomatic and security policies in Asia and global implementation.

At present, it should be regarded as the fifth stage of Sino -US relations. The United States has officially abandoned its 40 -year strategic contact policy for China, and instead accepts an unfarished strategic competition concept.The US national security strategy announced in December 2017 and the US defense strategy in February 2018 are the formal sign of this in -depth change.Since then, Sino -US relations have entered a new uncertain area, and the bilateral contact mechanism has actually been put on hold.

Today, China and the United States seem to return to a state of international relations in the 19th century style. The main political contact between the two governments is more through the embassy, ambassador, and temporary special envoys.The degree of fragmentation of Sino -US relations has almost reached the highest point in the past 30 years.The unreasonable Sino -US trade war dragged everyone into a new world that continued to be unhappy.China has stated that it will be reserved for a period of time after the United States adheres to the agreement to sign the agreement, and China will not give in; China will not accept the U.S. unequal treaty: that is, the United States can unilaterally determine that China does not comply with the agreement and re -impose tariffs on tariffs.And China cannot take countermeasures.China is also difficult to tolerate. In order to reduce bilateral trade deficit, Trump has continuously expanded China's purchase list of the United States.

At the same time, Beijing successively published a large number of tough remarks for the United States mdash; mdash; these are what I have never seen in the past 30 years.Chinese official media constantly reminded the public that less than 12 months after the founding of New China, the Volunteer Army hit the United States in a deadlock on the Korean Peninsula.Similar movements passed to China are very clear: China has been impacted by many external impacts in 5000 years, but China has a long history of enduring pain, and all eventually wins.At the same time, China has estimated that if the trade war broke out in an all -round way, the annual economic growth rate will lose about 1.4 percentage points.To this end, Beijing has initiated comprehensive measures such as fiscal, currency and infrastructure investment to ensure that the economic growth is maintained above the key threshold of 6%.In addition, other measures are also prepared.

The oil on the fire is that the Trump administration announced on May 15 that Huawei, a Chinese star company, will be included in the list of export control entities, which is actually forbidden American companies to from providing key parts to Huawei.Immediately afterwards, China announced on May 31 that it will establish an unreliable entity list system. Any international enterprise that adopts discriminatory measures to Chinese companies or harms Chinese national security and interests will be included in the list.It seems that many international companies are going to cross Sino -US firepower.

How should the trade war end?

So, what is the prospect of the trade war?If politics can still be managed, in the final analysis, both parties still need trade agreements.If Trump wants to be re -elected, it must allow the US economic growth to run through 2020 and continue this long growth cycle.To this end, he cannot break the negotiations because market confidence will collapse.For Trump, the real economy in the United States may face a decline in its least affordable year.

For China, it is limited to continue to rely on economic stimulus to drive growth.At present, China's debt accounts for about 248%of GDP (although most of them are domestic debts).The performance of Chinese private enterprises in 2018 is not satisfactory, and it is important to solve the trade war in China to restore domestic business confidence.

My prediction is that the possibility of reaching an agreement between China and the United States is five or five mdash; mdash; This is an ultimate wrestling between economic and politics mdash; mdash;The process of restarting.After the Osaka Summit, the United States may make concessions in the first article of two red lines in China (reserved tariffs after signing the agreement). At the same time, China is likely to agree to appropriately increase the purchase of American goods based on previous proposals, although there may be no Trump in terms of quantity, there may be no Trump without Trump.So much required.In this way, both sides have maintained their own decentness.Of course, the biggest uncertainty is that Trump intends to sell for his own political base for his results, and what kind of trade agreement to use a Democrat who uses a trade agreement to block him from the right.

For global interests, it should be avoided to be discounted

However, although there may be solutions after the trade war itself, the technological war between the two countries has just begun.We must fasten the risk of a better inspiration between the world's two largest economies.What does the Internet, telecommunications, fintech, and artificial intelligence in China and the United States look like?In terms of Internet, China and the United States have been decoupled.Whether it is the Internet content, search engines, or a larger level of management mechanism, we have moved to two different digital world MDash; mdash; one is based on the United States and the other has Chinese characteristics.

In terms of electronic payment, what we see is the same progress.China's Alipay, WeChat Payment, and UnionPay payment systems not only spread throughout China, but also expand to many places in the world.At the same time, traditional US credit cards have not been widely accepted in China.The United States believes that this is because China has set up a lot of non -tariff barriers to limit them to widely used.Right now, more intense competition is taking place in controlling the future electronic payment system. These systems are the financial turbine compartment of e -commerce and the global digital economy.

The telecommunications system of China and the United States is also decoupled, and both countries have found the basis at the security level.Although the US mobile devices are active in the Chinese market, the Chinese market share of American telecommunications companies is getting smaller and smaller.Huawei is included in the list of export control entities in the United States.Other Chinese telecommunications equipment providers also face the prospects of extensive restrictions.In many developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, Huawei's 5G communication technology has dominated.The United States is currently blocking Huawei to further seize the Western market, including its closest allies.

Once the discounted in the field of telecommunications, broadband and digital economy is completed, we can speculate that its serious consequences of the global supply chain of China and the United States.

Finally, decourse has appeared in the field of artificial intelligence.China keenly noticed its strength in this key area, knowing that it can obtain big data unprecedented, and the possibility of machine learning that is generated.In addition, using this new cutting -edge technology can produce a large number of economic, military and technical applications.At the same time, the U.S. government is seeking to restrict US universities and scientific research institutions in contact with China.

Therefore, the problem is not where the decourse starts, but to the end of where to go.If the decourse will become a wide range of reality in the next ten years, what will the diplomatic and security policies go?

All of this began to feel that the situation of economic globalization is slowly being transferred.In the past 30 years, driven by global capital and technology flow, the basic logic of globalization has always been surpassing national politics and protectionism, making the world closer together.As economic globalization reached the top of the global financial crisis, we are now witnessing the initial signs of its decline. This decline stems from its internal contradictions, but is now driven by populism, protectionism, and geopolitical competition.

For these reasons, China and other members of the United States and the international community should carefully consider where these disturbing tracks will bring us to.This is not only for the interests of the two countries in the United States, but also for global interests.

Source: GlobalReport (the author is the 26th Prime Minister in Australia, Chairman of the Policy Research Institute of the Asian Association)