Shen Yi: Who will guarantee North Koreas security issues?

Author: Shen Yi (Associate Professor of International Political Department of Fudan University)

On June 20, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and President of the Communist Party of China ... Kim Jong -un, with the Chairman of the Workers' Party and Chairman of the State Council in Pyongyang.Earlier, North Korea held a grand welcome ceremony and welcomed the Chinese President ... the first visit to North Korea.

In February of this year, the second Kim Special will disappear, and it is just the Sino -US trade war. The solution of the North Korea nuclear issue needs to be more superb political wisdom for the three parties of China, the United States and North Korea.How to solve the problem of the North Korean nuclear, what role China will play in it, and what will the further development of China -DPRK relations develop?Observer.com interviewed Shen Yi, an associate professor of the Department of International Political Department of Fudan University to interpret the situation in the peninsula.

Observer.com: Regarding China -DPRK relations, ... the chairman said that three will not change, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Lu Kan also said at a press conference that China -DPRK relations are normal friendly neighbor relations.How do you understand the normal and special relationship between China and North Korea?

Shen Yi: The relationship between China and North Korea is very special. It has historical origins and realistic considerations.There are realistic national interests, as well as complex national emotions and emotions, especially in North Korea.For China, the positioning and development of China -DPRK relations is closely related to China's own development and China's development in the world.

On the whole, emotions and responsibilities are the mainstream of them, and the proper national interests, as well as the differences between the two countries, and solve the complex problems including the nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula with a responsible attitude.Une urgency.

Observer.com: President Xi posted on the Korean media that the two countries should deepen the inter -party exchanges and learn from the country.Kim Jong -un has been committed to developing the domestic economy of North Korea. In terms of economic reform, China's development experience can it give North Korea?

Shen Yi: If North Korea wants to reform and open, of course, China's experience is crucial to North Korea, because so far, China has come out of a path that maintains its own independence and achieve rapid development, which is important to North Korea.Refers to significance and value.

Observer.com: Since 2018, Kim Jong -un has held two meetings and Trump. Before and after the two meetings, Kim Jong -un has visited China. The leaders of China and North Korea have held four meetings.What do you think of China's role in solving the nuclear issue?

Shen Yi: From the perspective of North Korea, the real key lies in the complexity of North Korea. It is neither a nuclear issue of a Korean Peninsula nor a problem of reform and opening up in North Korea. It is essentially the future and destiny of the Korean Peninsula.That is the issue of North Korea's North -South relations.

If there is no overall solution framework, there is no clear positioning and understanding of the future of the Korean Peninsula. In a sense, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue or advanced reform and opening up, or the security and stability of the entire region, will notThere may be an overall solution.

Judging from the situation in North Korea, from the historical issues of the Korean Peninsula, from the strategic trust between the United States and North Korea, frankly, in the case of the current US strategy, the Korean Peninsula nuclearIt is almost impossible to solve it only through the negotiations of North Korea and the United States.

What the United States needs to solve is the reasonable concern of North Korea's security, that is, in diplomacy that North Korea, as a sovereign independent country and North Korea to establish diplomatic relations, the problem that North Korea needs to solve is to recognize whether the legitimacy of its regime comes from whether it can realize North Korea.The long -term sustainable growth of the economy can improve the living standards of the people, and whether it can obtain the sincere support of the people.

If North Korea insists that having nuclear weapons in a nuclear non -diffusion mechanism is a way to obtain the legitimacy of the regime, and insist that North Korea has the right to talk about the world's nuclearization like nuclear countries, this is not a wise strategy.

Observer.com: In February this year, Kim Special will not be scattered.

Shen Yi: The core goal setting of both North Korea and the United States is actually the same. North Korea's goal is to rely on nuclear weapons. In the absence of other force intervention, the Americans are forced to sit down and negotiate with North Korea.Create diplomatic relations.The goal of the United States is that North Korea has abandoned nuclear weapons. It believes that North Korea has nuclear weapons illegal, but at the same time, the United States is unwilling to change its position on the North Korean issue.The next step is to get a breakthrough, either in North Korea to concession or the United States to concessions, but to be honest, it is impossible to make concessions.

As for the United States re -pressure North Korea, but think about it, did the pressure on North Korea stopped?Maybe for a while, everyone thinks that the United States will use military means to solve the North Korean problem, but the problem is that the situation of the Korean Peninsula allows the United States to do this?There is a paragraph that is not to say that the North Korean people say that who bullies me and I go to South Korea. In this case, the situation on the peninsula is like a dead buckle.

It seems that North Korea may achieve some breakthrough on nuclear weapons, and it is difficult to give up once it has it.In history, only one country has taken the initiative to abandon nuclear weapons, that is, South Africa, because South Africa has a Mandela, and Mandela is a saint. This sage has controlled power and willingly abolished nuclear weapons.However, North Korea is a very low probability of this situation, so the future of the North Korean nuclear issue will continue to be dragged down.

Is there a way to solve it?Yes, the United States suddenly opened up, recognizing North Korea and establishing diplomatic relations with North Korea, but there is still no way to ensure that subsequent North Korea will abandon nuclear weapons.And if the United States recognizes North Korea with nuclear weapons in North Korea, it means that the United States defaults to the development of nuclear weapons in North Korea, which will trigger a chain reaction. The so -called nuclear non -expansion mechanism will collapse.Not to mention what will happen in South Korea, Japan will definitely take a step forward. Iran in the Middle East and Chile in Brazil in South America. Small and medium -sized powers in various regions will move. This is why Americans perform such stiffness on North Korea.There is no place to retreat.The earlier the problem of the North Korean problem, the greater the opportunity in the United States, but it is difficult to solve it until now.

Observer.com: During the talks yesterday, President Xi mentioned that China is willing to help the DPRK to solve its own reasonable and developing concerns. Does this expressions mean that once the situation in the peninsula changes, China will guarantee North Korea's safetyIntersection

Shen Yi: This is a basic attitude of China. First, China will not ignore China. Second, the boundaries of Chinese management are the reasonable safety and development concern of North Korea.The need; third, it is the power of power, indicating China's sincerity and attitude.

If the situation in North Korea changes, it depends on what the change is and who takes the initiative to provoke it.If the Korean lion speaks, China is not omnipotent.However, if someone wants to make manual feet in North Korea, China will not agree.I think this sentence is a appropriate statement, full of oriental philosophy, and also in line with the basic rules of international politics.

In fact, compared to security concerns, I pay more attention to development concerns. If North Korea wants to develop the economy, China can provide help that can be able to help. Just like China is difficult to develop in 1949, the Soviet elder brother helps, which is what China can do.

Observer.com: An interesting phenomenon is that when the Chinese and American trade war hit a climax in the past few days, a domestic style of reviewing the war against the United States and aid of the North Korea was scratched. How do you evaluate the significance of the Korean War on China?

Shen Yi: The two have close correlations, but the so -called Korean War and the United States Aid the DPRK are more for China to resist the United States and the North Korea. For China, for China, it is necessary to clearly understand that when the power was so different at that time,Although it has paid a large price, from the medium -term perspective, China's core interest has been effectively restored. This maintenance can not be achieved through forbearance, compromise, and concessions.