Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times Society
With the increase in the Sino -US trade war, the impact effect on Taiwanese businessmen and Taiwanese companies in mainland China has also increased.In particular, the United States' resistance to Huawei companies in China has greatly impacted its mobile phone manufacturers.In addition, once the United States has 10 to 25%of China's $ 300 billion products, almost all products such as laptops, mobile phones, televisions, shoes, etc. are included in.Go back to impact Taiwan's exports and the supply chain of Taiwanese businessmen in mainland China.But on Tuesday evening, both China and the United States had news that Trump and ... have passed the phone and determined to meet at the G20 summit.The market reached an agreement on China and the United States, and the Taiwan stock exchange market rose sharply.
Prior to this, the Sino -US trade war came to the wind.In the United States, in addition to resisting Huawei and proposing a entity list, the Federal St 'also hinted at the possibility of cutting interest rates. It seems to be reserving grain and grass for the US trade war.Ticket warehouse -agricultural state, increase the tariffs of wine, meat and other products, increased from 10%to 25%.At the same time, it is one of the important raw materials of rare earth cards and rare earths.The control of rare earth exports, when the swords of both sides were tension, also added imagination to the continuous trade war.Most experts also estimate that at the G20 summit at the end of June, ... and the talks with Trump, the possibility of negotiating the trade agreement is not high.
However, there are also many analysts that because China and the United States have their own weaknesses, and they have considerable risks to each other. In the future, if there are steps, the probability of reaching a trade agreement is not low.In the United States, the door of the United States lies in Trump facing the presidential election of November next year.Once the stock market and housing market collapse, agricultural state products have impact too much, and tariffs on tariffs have caused prices to rise, and American people will not be able to stand it.The door of China is that the reform of the internal supply side, such as the US trade war, to suffer the abdomen to the enemy, whether the Chinese economy can support it is the focus of market observation.Therefore, the trade agreement is still possible, but the time will be longer.
If the trade agreement has not been reached, how long can the trade war last?The longer it continues, the more unfavorable the economy of the two parties. At this time, it may cause business difficulties in enterprises, difficulty repayment loans, decline in real estate prices, and decline in loan payment capacity, which will affect the financial surface.At this time, the impact of the economy will be expanded from exports, entities, and the possibility of global financial tsunami.If the US stock market declines by 30 % to 40 %, it may lead to a tsunami similar to the Lehman brothers.However, the United States still has policy tools such as interest rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) that can be applied.
As for China, unless the trade war lasted for more than a year, the debt of Chinese state -owned enterprises has risen sharply, liquidity is out of control, and house prices have fallen by 20 or 30 %, which can trigger a storm of China and even global.At present, Chinese state -owned enterprises and central enterprises' debt account for about 50 to 60%of GDP. However, at this time, if the central government does not support state -owned enterprises and state -owned enterprises, it will cause great rise in unemployment and political negative effects. Therefore, they will still choose to support.In terms of liquidity, China's current deposit reserve rate is about 14-15%, down to 5-6%, and there is still considerable space.In addition, there are diversified tools such as tax cuts, subsidies, and issuance of public debt, so it is still sufficient in the short term.
Although the Western world led by World Clearance Bank, it has continuously proposed early warning, arguing that the Chinese economy may erupt large financial storms.It can still support the current situation. In the short term, it should not cause China's financial turmoil.
However, the Sino -US trade war is not only the level of trade, but also a trap of Xunxede, which has both a big country and a rising power.Even if China and the United States can reach a trade agreement, it will cause conflicts of technology, currency, and even global economic leadership in the future.
In addition, the United States is currently not only the Republican Party, Democratic Party, and business community. In fact, most people have regarded China as an imaginary enemy.Therefore, the conflict between China and the United States will last for one or two decades!
In summary, although the Sino -US trade agreement has been delayed, both China and the United States have a cover, and there is still a possibility of reaching an agreement.Especially after Xi Chuan met at the G20 summit, the tension was expected to be at least ease, and there would be no immediately storm.However, if the negotiation has not been reached and the trade war is delayed for more than a year, the physical surface may be expanded and the financial surface will be expanded to form a financial turmoil.Therefore, the progress of the trade agreement is closely observed, the decline in the US stock market, as well as the changes in the debt of Chinese state -owned enterprises and central enterprises, the lack of liquidity, and the decline in real estate prices.Observe the above indicators to grasp the possibility and changes in the financial turmoil in a timely manner.Of course, remembering lessons can you protect your body.In terms of enterprises and individuals, we should focus on core competitiveness and don't over -financial leverage.At the same time, banks should strengthen capital adequacy and increase the coverage of bad debt, etc., to avoid stubbornness and lack of liquidity derived from the trade war.In this way, whether it is an enterprise or a personal person to avoid possible crisis.
