Wang Peng: In the context of the Sino -US game and G20, what costs, revenue and risks can North Korea's factors bring to Chinese diplomacy, and what strategies should China take?

At the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong -un, it will visit the North Korean Democratic People's Republic from June 20th to 21st.Chinese official media evaluation said: This visit is exactly the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and North Korea. The timing is special and has great significance. It is a major event and happy event in the lives of the two parties between the Chinese and North Korea and the people of the two countries.The new chapter of friendship between China and North Korea has become a new milestone in the history of the relationship between the two countries.From the perspective of China -DPRK relations, some comments believe that this is the highest leader of the Chinese party and the country to visit North Korea again after 14 years. It is also the first time that the General Secretary has visited North Korea since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, so it is significant.The above statements are all willing.

However, if you are in contact with (A), China and the United States are currently fierce and long -standing trade war, (B) Sino -US relations in the past (kiss Singer) have been changed (B)c) The G20 summit summit held by the most important allies in East Asia in the United States; mdash; the trip to South Korea, the US President Trump, a US President Trump on the eve of the (D) Summit.It is necessary to use North Korea to hedge the risks on G20.In the same way, North Korea, which is still isolated by the international community and encountered in the United States, it seems that after the Puchang Association, it seems that it also needs to find a new breakthrough from the neighboring country.Limited to space, this article only analyzes from the perspective of China. In the context of the Sino -US game and G20, the cost, income and risks that North Korea may bring.

The cost of playing North Korean card-income accounting

As some scholars have pointed out: with the fission of Sino -US relations, especially in view of (A) previously as the abortion of the joint statement of the APEC Papua New Guinea Summit, the APEC Papua New Guinea Summit, and (B) at the G20 Summit of Argentina's G20 summit a month laterFor various diplomatic tug -of -war, the G20 mechanism is after the Osaka Summit, and I am afraid that the halo of the global (economic) governance platform is about to retreat.In the 2016 Hangzhou Summit, the action team praised by the lives of the Hangzhou Summit is likely to transform into the Qing Tan Museum; even with the continuation of the Sino -US fighting, it has further deteriorated into a horned fight.(See Wang Wen and Wang Peng: G20 mechanism 20 years: evolution, dilemma and China respond, modern international relations, 2019, No. 5, p. 1-10)

In the past six months, considering the (A) U.S. Secretary of State's shuttle diplomacy and its launch of China's global slander war, (b) the vertical and horizontal streams of China and the United States compared to third -party countries and important international organizations.In the small circle, the United States still enjoys the hard and hard strength of China, and some scholars are worried that this time the Osaka Summit will even be made by Trump into a hunting ground mdash; mdash;New Zealand, the rest of the four countries are in the G20 framework), the European Union, Japan, South Korea and other allies, as well as India and other Indians to encircle China.These concerns are not worrying.Just as Professor Wang Honggang's keen observed mdash; MDASH; the United States is forcing countries to choose a team:

As an important strategic resource for the United States, the Alliance system and partner network will also play a vital role in the United States for China Games.The possible situation in the future is: the United States has strengthened the Western countries by building and promoting the Non -West and the Non -Western state -democratic and non -democratic market economy and non -market economy.The identity of identity is to unite other developed countries in the name of safeguarding vested interests, and forced the transformation of countries to make a choice in the political system and economic model;Models or countries following China and Russia apply high pressure and isolation.If the United States promotes the exclusive terms in the US -Mexico Trade Agreement, it will also be a key trick for its economic and political system lines and forcing countries to choose a side team.In addition, traditional means such as military binding, economic assistance, and political penetration to drive closer to other countries to the United States is also a common means in the US foreign policy toolbox.(See Wang Honggang: Sino-US strategy game and China strategy to the United States in the new stage, Modern International Relations, No. 3, 2019, p. 7-19.)

Clarify the above -mentioned big background, and look at the special and significant state -of -state visit to this time. The expected income is the self -evident mdash; mdash;Covering) transformed into an outer breakthrough (the introduction of North Korea, which is not within the G20 framework, as a major issue to master the initiative of global public opinion).In layman's terms, it is from the table table, and the new card is taken.But as for whether it can be a trump card, it depends on the player's play and the strategic interaction with the opponent.

At the same time, it is also necessary to point out that under certain conditions, small countries with a certain strength and strategic strategy are not willing to always play the role of chess pieces, but they will be eager to try, and use the contradictions between other players to place themselves in a favorable position.Even anti -customers are the new strategic players/cards.If the players/players are not prudent enough, they cannot rule out the possibility of being bullied and used by the chess pieces, and even eventually become a new chess piece.In the history of the disputes between the human world, such kings are easy to settle, offensive and defensive cases are common.

Taking North Korea as an example, although the country is in the G20 organization, the topic of North Korea/North Korea has never been far away from almost all major global or regional forums including G20, and it can form a public opinion field explosion every time.effect.Earlier twice, the special gold clubs that have attracted the attention of global media have endlessly ended, and now the transfer of US -DPRK relations has also fallen into a low tide.Therefore, China, as a major stakeholder of North Korea's nuclear issue, uses this special timing to seize the right to words of this popular issue. For its own country, it is not only conducive to hedging on the G20 issue, such as market economic status, identification,State -owned enterprise subsidies, intellectual property rights, network security and privacy protection, international development and debt issues such as unfavorable issues to China, and it can obviously change the dilemma of China that may have been deliberately isolated and marginalized.The chief talked person; for the Northeast Asian region, for the international community, this move can further promote the mutual understanding and strategic communication of the relevant parties, and continue to be a path to ensure that the peninsula can be sustainable and peaceful and promote the process of nuclearization.On the other hand, provide high -quality public items with the position of responsible great powers.

As for the cost of diplomacy this time, in terms of economy, such as providing the necessary humanitarian assistance to the DPRK to improve people's livelihood, in view of the volume of China's economy and the actual demand of North Korea, the cost of this piece is almost possible to China.Excluding.However, if the DPRK proposes an additional political appeal as a switching chip, it needs to be discussed. Another article is analyzed in detail.

Risk assessment of playing Korean cards

In addition to cost-income accounting, the most important thing is risk assessment and control.In recent years, with the four consecutive continuous visits to China in North Korea, bilateral relations have improved significantly.However, there is no far -sightedness.Chinese leaders also often emphasize that leaders at all levels must adhere to the bottom line thinking and strive to prevent and resolve major risks.The so -called bottom -line thinking is in popular terms to leave more hearts, carefully consider the worst and worst cases, and then take precautions.In this context of the G20 anti -enclosure battle, which China has to cope with potential risks?

First, the trap is overdoor.

That is, the high visit was over -publicized by the country's own itself, thereby having the appetite and expectations of the international community; but then failed to achieve the corresponding diplomatic results, which disappointed the international community, and even caught the handle by the opponent country and became the G20 next week.The chips used to ridicule and degrade China at the summit.

Although the Senior leader in North Korea has visited China for the first time in late March 2018, China -DPRK relations have appeared in the largest scale since the DPRK tried to explode nuclear weapons (the official media language) in 2006;The supreme leader of China, which has been interrupted for 14 years, visited the DPRK; however, after all, it was a long -lasting battle to solve the nuclear issue and achieve a complete denuclearization of the Peninsula, and it was by no means to do it.Earlier, powerful, such as the United States, and Trump, even if the so -called extreme pressure was used, it was nothing more than to let the chess pieces push the boat smoothly and the middle of the middle.Being able to achieve substantial progress has become the laughing stock of the international community and domestic political opponents.

It can be inferred that China and North Korea can easily achieve the substantial diplomatic achievements far higher than Trump?I am afraid that there are quite difficult MDASH; mdash; whether it is providing guarantee from the front, persuasion, or applying pressure from the side and negative side, and trying to take over, it is difficult to work.

If the above analysis and speculation are established, then it can be imagined that if the Chinese side is excessively promoted at the high visitor at the high announcement at this time, the international community has too high expectations.Without the corresponding diplomatic results, it is likely to disappoint the international community, and even a handle, so that Zhengwan can find new excuses to be blocked and isolated Trump to find new materials.

Second, the malicious speculation trap in other countries.

That is, the malicious hype of other countries will be rendered by the high visit to China to eat, and it violates the UN resolutions and obsessed with the protection of North Korea.

Judging from the performance of the US -DPRK's strategic interaction in the past year, the Trump administration seems to show a characteristic of high strategic and high strategic uncertainty to the policy of North Korea.

The former has a high strategic certainty (Strategic High-CERTAINTY) refers to the bureaucratic bureaucratic agencies (such as the State Council, etc.), the United States (such as the Asia-Pacific region), the military (Pentagon), etc.Under the common constraints of domestic important factors and disciplines, the possibility of the Trump administration has greatly reduced the possibility of anti -cordon against the DPRK.That is, the possibility of being widely worried about the Trump administration has been widely worried a year ago.Although he has been holding himself, or still holds similar ideas, the outside world has no idea, but from the actual performance of the White House-Pressure Group-Pyongyang three-party interaction game, Trump's individual in North Korea and North Korea,It is impossible to fundamentally shake and reverse the basic principles and positions of the previous government's previous government.In other words, the Trump Administration must implement the established route and goals, that is, to promote North Korea to go nuclear.As for the goal of achieving political regime change, from the perspective of public information, I am afraid that it is only in the mouth of extreme hardlines such as Bolton. There is no sufficient evidence to prove that the Trump administration's position and goal.

The latter's strategy is uncertain (Tactic High-UNCERTAINTY) mainly refers to, because the PREFERENCE OF Struggle Means of Trump has caused him to habitually create uncertainty on major strategic issues.Intentionally the preparation of contradictions and mutual negative remarks to increase the difficulty of judging the strategic intention of the opponent.Therefore, we see that on the North Korean nuclear issue, it is said that it must be put on pressure for a while, and it will be pushed in the United States for a while and is not in a hurry to make success. In fact, it is all aroundOn the general strategic goal, all kinds of fuzzy discourse strategies are implemented.

Combining the two characteristics of the Trump administration's strategic and strategic strategies above, we seem to be able to reasonably infer that not only Trump himself, but also important pressure institutions in the United States, they are unwilling or allowed to go to China and North Korea to go.Too close.Facts have also repeatedly proved that the United States had previously put pressure on the so -called extremes of the DPRK. Without the full cooperation of China, it would eventually become a waste paper.Therefore, these factions and interest groups will have a high degree of vigilance and opposition to the Chinese leaders' visit to the DPRK, and they also have sufficient motivation to doubt and accuse China, and eventually cause the outside world to fail to stress on the North Korea, North Korea's ability to resist pressure with them, North KoreaThe increase in the issue of the nuclear issue is wearing a hat that is increasingly cooperative.In this regard, China must be checked.

And Trump himself is currently facing a huge pressure on re -election.At the moment when economic dividends are no longer obvious and other diplomatic achievements are also lacking, seeking breakthroughs on the Peninsula issue can be positively enhanced Trump's prestige and popularity.Or, in turn, from the perspective of negative decompression, successfully find the scapegoat MDASH; MDASH; for example, the Chinese mdash; MDASH; MDASH; for Trump, the re -election of the United Nations resolution, it is not a one -sided manner.Say a good way to shake the pot in time and shirk responsibility.In this regard, China must not be checked.

Third, the malicious use of a trap in other countries.

That is, it was used by other countries to make the high visit into the Peninsula version of the Golden Gate shell.

At the peak of the Cold War, the Soviet leader Khrushchev visited China in 1958 and discussed major international issues with Chinese comrades.After several unpleasant conversations, it was decided to leave Beijing the next day on August 3.For friendly considerations, Chinese comrades insisted that they would go to the airport to deliver it in person, and they had to bring the ambassadors in Beijing to send them together.Khrushchev signed an agreement with the Chinese side with the Chinese leader on the current major international situation with the Chinese and Soviet leaders.Khrushchev left Beijing on August 4th, and the front page of the People's Daily released relevant information.Two weeks later, on August 23, 1958, the golden gate incident that shocked the world broke out.

In this regard, whether it is US Secretary of State Dulles, or the international community, and public opinion, they all agree that the consensus reached between the so -called China and the Soviet Union is about the shelling Golden Gate.Khrushchev was dumb to eat Huang Lian, and had suffering.On the one hand, of course, he could not admit that he had ordered or acquiesced to the Chinese comrades to do so, which was equivalent to stretching out his head to connect with stones and pushed the Chinese people in vain.On the other hand, he couldn't deny it.First, he denies that the West may not believe it.Second, under the premise of offending the West, if he still resolutely denies publicity, he will offend Chinese comrades, and it will be more damaged by the Soviet Union's prestige in the socialist camp, and his own personal reputation.

This incident is actually not good for China in the long run.Because this oriental farmers -style cunning (Khrushchev, it is said that it was also widely cited by Brezhnev, Koskin and others), which severely hurt Khrushchev's self -esteem, and then buried the cracked China and the Soviet Union.Deep foreshadowing.However, in terms of short-term effects, the Diplomatic Strike did use the Soviet Union to carry the pot and block the gun for China's possible military-diplomatic adventure.Strategic doubts may be considered an unexpected strategic income.

Judging from the various actions and performances of Pyongyang, its decision -making layer clearly has a considerable degree of understanding and recognition of the traditional wisdom of Chinese comrades, and has achieved it.Therefore, logically, we cannot rule out the possibility of malicious use of the relevant parties by the relevant parties.For example, after Chinese comrades left Pyongyang, there may be incidents similar to test explosions and test shooting, or the sudden publication of the relevant parties is completely different from the ease, low -key, and cooperative tone in the past year.The anti -American declaration, thereby vented Mdash; mdash; MDash, who had been having a long time because of the United States' sleeves and accusations, and other arrogant behaviors.Instead, they are challenged and endorsed by the surrounding powers.

In connection with the gradually hot connection between Beijing and Pyongyang, a declaration of goodwill issued by the joint publicity, Western public opinion seems to have enough reasons as if 60 years ago to make the above speculation.For those countries that are originally desperate for China, and how are the countries, and the political factions, this is not a best excuse for hair difficulties.In other words, the intention of playing North Korean cards was originally to increase the bargaining chip of its own game on the table of the G20; but if such a change, good things may become a bad thing mdash; mdash; chips fall into the hands of the opponent and become slanderous slanderous.The so -called contempt of the United Nations resolution, self -eating, and overthrowing the new targets and new mouths of the United Nations resolutions that have voted and signed.In this regard, China must be checked.

From the perspective of Pyongyang, from March 8, 2018, Trump suddenly announced that it can open a special gold to the United States for a few days later.For the first time in North Korea's highest leaders visited China, until today, the Peninsula change bureau Hellip; Hellip; Pyongyang is likely to think that Sino -US relations are inversely proportional to China -DPRK relations.The smaller the pressure on the DPRK, the more favorable the natural results are.If Pyongyang does be so cognitive, the above -mentioned motivation will be sprouted accordingly.If you can use a wave of artificial misunderstandings 60 years ago to further worsen Sino -US relations and cause new and more long -lasting great powers, thenIn other words, it is obviously a major strategic value.

Risk control and control of playing North Korea

First, there are different inside and outside. The objects are clear, some are targeted, and each breaks.

Sino -DPRK relations have achieved the history of 14 years, which is not easy.Although there are certain costs and risks for both parties, in the face of the closer threat, as analyzed earlier, strategic returns are still worthy of (Necessity) and feasibility.

Under the above -mentioned given conditions, in order to maintain China -DPRK relations, traditional paper party media and central media that have always occupied an important position in Pyongyang's attitude that Pyongyang evaluated Beijing.Friendship, telling the story of the Chinese and North Korea, in order to further consolidate bilateral relations to continuously transport positive energy.In terms of economic and humanitarian assistance, China may not have been able to endure the obligations of a good neighbor, good partner, and responsible power.

But at the level of external propaganda, although in today's Internet era, the traditional internal propaganda-foreign publicity is already blurred, but on the basis of understanding this major trend, consciously highlights different points on the two levels of inside and outside.Work hard.For example, the flagship flagship agency represented by CGTN (English Channel) may be clearly locked on the reports and comments of the incident on the western (especially the United States) audience.In other words, it is the story of the China -DPRK high -visit visits at this external publicity level. It is to tell Westerners. In the context of the Sino -US trade war and the United States to besieged China, it is taught to the mainstream society and G20 countries.Therefore, this story tells well. The fundamental evaluation criteria are not how the Chinese people feel it, but to see if it is conducive to establishing a positive image of China in the international community, in order to shedle various refutations and attacks from the West.

After clarifying the above audience and preaching goals, you can develop a strategy.The key to talking about the relationship between China and North Korea is to put this narrative in China for a long time to promote the thorough nuclearization of the peninsula, and at the same time, it is also committed to ensuring peace in the peninsula area.Note that the order of advancing non -nuclearization and maintaining the peace of the peninsula should not be reversed.Aiming at the international popular China and China as lsquo; harmonious RSquo; sacrificing lsquo; de -nuclear rsquo; and other misunderstandings, China's strategy should first emphasize a firm position without nuclearization, and then give examples and arguments.Prove that China does make major substantial contributions for this.On this basis, we will emphasize China's contribution to maintaining peace in the peninsula.If the importance of the two is upside down, it is impossible to offset or hedge the words of the words before.

Second, hungry marketing, want to talk about it, build a Chinese gold medalist, so as to hedge the risk of siege of G20 and seize the initiative of international discourse.

Strategic, the visit to the DPRK is the preheating of the G20 summit. So similar, in terms of discourse, reports, comments, and rendering for Gao Interview should also be G20 reports, reviews, and rendering.For this reason, we may wish to adopt the strategy of hunger marketing and deliberately want to say it.After all, whether the People's Daily or Guangming Daily, whether it is CCTV or CGTN, is not the first protagonist in this global public opinion battle and the Sino -US united war.It is not advisable to make a good job on the stage, so it is not advisable to take the lead.If in the preheating report of the seat, it is too hard, not only the hidden concerns that must be lost, but also may cause the protagonist to have no burden to shake after the appearance of the protagonist, and no material for hedge the surrounding army that has been ambushed by his opponent.

Therefore, the more feasible strategy is that all reports, comments, and international public situations have stimulated the expectations of global audiences to the final results of the high visit.Promoting the contribution and firm positions made by the process of nuclearization; (B) Realizing the nuclear nuclear on the premise of the North Korean facts is a difficult and persistent cause, which requires the participation of all countries.The major agreement is no wonder the Chinese side; there is no agreement between the Two sessions, and the atmosphere of the peninsula turns is destroyed); (C) If China and North Korea can really publish a joint communique on the 21st, even if only verbally write it to China and North KoreaUnanimously agreed to jointly work as a statement such as the process of nuclearization of the peninsula, then this diplomatic results are enough to throw it on the countertop of the G20 conference, so that all people who have been isolated and marginalized in China have nothing to say.At that time, the protagonist will appear, with the aura of the gold medal of the peninsula affairs, but the away battle can be anti -guest. Even if the host and the global overlords are not marginalized, at least they cannot achieve siege in accordance with the original route policy.

For this reason, technical, the reports of the preheating phase should maintain a relatively low -key and peaceful tone, so as to ensure that the protagonist's appearance and curiosity on the peninsula on the peninsula on the 27th, hedging the possible isolation and marginal maps of possible isolation and marginalized maps.At the same time, leave room for possible adverse situations.Don't talk too much, just to retain the strategy and discourse space that can be rotated.

Third, adhere to the bottom line of thinking and eliminate the Golden Gate incident.

The Chinese and North Korea people have been deep in the past 70 years (after the Korean War), 400 years (after Renchen's chaos), and the friendship and friendship accumulated in 2000.This kind of brother -like friendship reminds people all the time that since it is a brother, it may wish to settle accounts.Especially on the issue of the strategic bottom line, in order to avoid unnecessary strategic misjudgment or the opponent's irresponsible opportunities, he tells the truth and vernacular first, and it is not a sustainable maintenance of bilateral friendship.

Puffers are delicious and still have toxic glands.Farewell to eat, finally soil ash.Gou Shanqi chefs, choosing a way.The blessing of Yiyi can be forever.

(Note: The author is an associate researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University. This article only represents the author's personal point of [email protected])