I am very happy to attend this meeting. I would like to exchange views on the exchanges of several economic and financial issues that are currently concerned about in China. Welcome everyone to put forward criticism.
U.S. upgrade trade friction cannot solve any problems
On May 10, the US government imposed tariffs on US $ 200 billion in US $ 200 billion in China, and subsequently issued a ban on Huawei and related enterprises, and also claimed that the RMB exchange rate was required to conduct an anti -subsidy investigation.The Chinese government, enterprises and residents are not surprised by this.We, as always, believe that the trade war cannot solve any problems, harm others and endanger ourselves.
From China, the United States can add tariffs to the limit, but the impact on the Chinese economy will be very limited.First, the vast majority of outputs in the United States are very suitable for domestic sales. China is in the period of consumption upgrade. The huge market that expands rapidly will digest a large part of them without squeezing the existing consumer goods.Second, the market diversification has made great progress. The Belt and Road Initiative is seeing results. Markets outside the United States are welcome to more Chinese products.Third, a considerable part of it will be exported to the United States, some because they cannot find alternatives, and some are because the profit is rich, so American importers are willing to share costs.Fourth, the upgrading of China's industrial structure requires a certain scale of production to overseas, which will accelerate China's high -quality development.Fifth, the Chinese financial market has been excessively affected in 2018, and the current toughness has been significantly enhanced, and further impact will not be too great.
From the perspective of the United States, it will be hit by almost the same strength.Exports to China will shrink and harm the interests of many American companies, and some high -tech companies' income will decline significantly.Many domestic companies that have long relying on imported Chinese products for processing, combination, transportation, and distribution will be severely squeezed, and some of them may face survival threats.American consumers will pay very high costs, and low -income classes, especially farmers and blue -collar workers, have more benefits.At the same time, the number of overseas assets and liabilities in the United States rely on the international financial system led by Wall Street than any country, and the trade war will inevitably trigger the fluctuation and downturn in the international financial market.
Logically, the goal of improving tariffs in the United States is to reduce the US -China trade deficit. However, due to China's countermeasures, its direct results are uncertain, and other factors have the influence, and the final effect is likely to be counterproductive.First, the United States lists Chinese high -tech companies on the sanctions list and clearly prohibits American companies from selling products and technology, which is equivalent to directly increasing the deficit.Second, the launch of the trade war shocked the international financial market, the RMB exchange rate quickly degraded, and the US government quickly worried that the role of tariffs would be offset.Third, a large increase in tariffs will push up the price level, so that the US economy may lose the advantage of low inflation.Fourth, to curb the export of China to the United States, the vacancy that is generated will inevitably be made up by other economies, and the total deficit does not decrease.
Historically, the trade dispute between the United States and other post -developed countries has a history of more than 40 years.It was originally Germany and Japan, and then the four Asian dragons.In 2000, China replaced Japan as the largest deficit country in the United States.At present, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and several Latin American countries have a good growth momentum. They are accelerating the change of world goods and service trade pattern. China may gradually decrease exports to the United States, but the pattern of US deficit is difficult to change.
The United States has obtained great benefits from trade with China
From the perspective of statistics, the US trade deficit has a large amount and proportion of the US trade deficit, and it seems to have suffered a loss.But if you analyze it carefully, you will find that the United States has actually gained many great benefits.According to the image, the benefits of the United States from the Sino -US economic and trade exchanges are equivalent to peeling several skin from a cow.
First, most of the importers and multinational companies in the United States get most of the value -added in the trade difference.Nearly 60%of the US -China trade deficit comes from foreign -invested companies, and a considerable part of them are US -funded companies. The sales of these products will eventually form a US company's revenue and profits.61%of Sino -US trade imbalances come from processing trade. In actual value distribution, China has not received high share.In addition, one -third of the global overseas sales of U.S. -fundamental enterprises comes from the Chinese market.Second, American consumers have obtained huge consumers through Sino -US trade.It is estimated that about a quarter of the retail products in the US market are imported from China, 26%of the products sold in Wal -Mart are directly from China.The low -cost Chinese products have continued to enter the United States, which has reduced the cost of living in American families and increased its welfare level.Third, the products and services that the United States exports to China is the field of price support in China.For example, large commodities such as food, energy, and civil aircraft, chips, etc., without a large number of Chinese purchases, their prices will never be today.According to US statistics, trade in China has a surplus of more than $ 40 billion a year.Fourth, since the 1990s, the United States has experienced high consumption and low inflation miracles.Even in the 10 years of implementing quantitative loose, there is no significant inflation in the United States. One important reason is that China, which has a population that exceeds Europe, the United States, and Japan, is in a period of high -speed industrialization, which unprecedentedly increased global consumer goods supply.Fifth, the United States has obtained huge amounts of cheap capital backflow.Capital accumulated by China ’s trade surplus returns to the United States by purchasing U.S. dollar assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds, supporting the consumption and investment in the United States.As of the end of 2018, China has $ 7.3 trillion in international financial assets, more than half of which exist in the form of dollars.The continuous inflow of Chinese capital has made the cost of capital in the US market extremely low, creating extremely beneficial conditions for its economic recovery and prosperity.Sixth, the United States has long occupied huge savings resources in China for a long time.The Chinese people are hardworking and frugal. Even when the monthly salary is more than ten dollars or dozens of dollars, it will save a little money to save.China's domestic savings rate and residents' savings rate have been at a very high level, while the United States has a large investment in MDASH; MDash; savings gap.The United States' huge regular account deficit to China means that the United States occupies a net savings of the same scale.
Because China's return to the United States is mainly based on the purchase of securities and other assets, and the proportion of direct financing in the US financial system is very high, the deposit creation effect is low.The broad currency and cash of the United States have grown slowly in the past ten years, which has formed a very distinctive contrast with its situation in the 1970s and 1980s.This is enough to explain a new secret in the United States: the cost of printing and issuing the US dollar also saves a lot.The famous Trifen problem in international financial studies found a more effective way of resolution.
accusing China of stealing American technology is the logic of power
China began to introduce foreign capital 40 years ago, set up three -funded enterprise, and foreign investors have obtained huge benefits from China.The sales of foreign companies in the Chinese market are now as high as trillions of dollars, and their profits are as high as hundreds of billions of dollars.All of this is based on the mutual benefit of enterprises, and none of the contracts were signed by the Chinese government for compulsory foreign companies.The strict performance of the contract has always been advocated by Europe and the United States, and it has also increasingly received the sincere recognition of Chinese enterprises and residents.The United States now suddenly accuses Chinese law and economic practice forcing foreign parties to transfer technologies to forced foreign intellectual property rights, and even use the words such as stealing. This is not only in line with the basic facts, but also a great insult to the Chinese people.
Any post -developed country will learn from the knowledge and experience of developed countries, so developing economics has the concept of tracking and imitation.In history, there have been more than a dozen centuries science and technology ahead of the world. Our intangible assets have made unparalleled contributions to the evolution of the entire human civilization.The four major inventions directly contributed to the rise of capitalism in Europe. Without gunpowder, compass and printing, there is no modern industrialization economy. Whether it is Francis Bull; Bacon or Carl Bull; Marx has made extremely high evaluations.It seems that our ancestors have regrets. They invented too much, but they did not invented intellectual property rights.
Opening history, you can see that during the industrialization of Europe and the United States, the technical imitation and plagiarism of each other countries are very common. Some companies used to obtain the technology of others unscrupulous. This is an inevitable phenomenon of specific historical stages.Each developed country has gone through the process of standardized intellectual property protection, but each country is in the pastOn the basis of its own exploration, a new breakthrough has been made, and new contributions to technological progress have been made.Moreover, we believe that the modernization of no country is obtained by theft, including the United States, and all work hard to work hard by the people of the country.
It was invented by Western countries with technology or market -changing technology with technology.Technical transactions based on the principle of fairness are the basic market economy activities recognized by all parties.For many years, developed countries in Europe and the United States have been advertising free trade and fair exchange, claiming to take the initiative to transfer knowledge and technology to developing countries to help the Third World get rid of poverty and backwardness and achieve economic independence.If this goal can be achieved, of course, it is conducive to world development.It now seems that the United States has no intention of fulfilling its promise at all.
Developed countries have been relying on technology transfer to obtain huge benefits.Through patents and franchise, many scientific and technological science and technology in developed countries have obtained high profits in the application of developing countries.In addition, many technologies have been tested in the application of developing countries. Engineering managers in these countries have made great contributions to improving and improving technologies, and promoted further improvement of the scientific and technological level of developed countries.
The fact that the United States borrows the name of trade protection in intellectual property rights has no basis for accusation of China.In today's world, China is the firm maintenance of the international rules of intellectual property rights and active builders.Francis Bull, Director -General of the World Intellectual Property Organization; Gao Rui praised the high -level forum in China Intellectual Property Protection in 2019: China has become a model for the creation and protection of global intellectual property rights.Just a few years ago, the American government, institutions, and dignitaries have publicly affirmed that China's intellectual property protection protection has made great progress.Does all this change overnight?
History has long proven and will continue to prove that relying on sanctions and blockade not only cannot prevent the scientific and technological and economic development of a country, but will inspire their determination to independently develop and accelerate their technological progress.In the 1950s and 1960s, we were blocked and embarrassed by all parties. Under the conditions of poor and poor difficulties, we still created two bombs and one star, so that China has gradually entered the ranks of the world's science and technology country.
Continue to deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism
The Party Central Committee and the State Council decided to continue to deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, enhance the elasticity of exchange rates, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.In recent years, the RMB basket exchange rate has been stable in global currencies. The Chinese government has worked hard to balance the flexibility of exchange rates and maintain exchange rate stability, which has been widely recognized by the international community.
Since the early 1990s, the United States has continuously threatened China with the allegations of the exchange rate.According to the definition of the US Ministry of Finance, the exchange rate manipulation needs to meet three quantitative standards at the same time: first, the trade surplus to the US for more than 20 billion US dollars a year; the other is that the current project surplus accounts for 3%of the GDP; and the third is to buy through exchange rate intervention through exchange rate intervention.Forex exceeding 2%of GDP.In 2018, China's frequent account surplus accounted for only 0.37%of GDP, and did not buy a large number of foreign exchange, and did not rely on the exchange rate depreciation to obtain trade competition advantages.It is difficult for the US government to put this hat on China.
In the past ten years, the RMB depreciation has occurred in a large extent, which is basically due to external reasons.The last time, offshore RMB fell more than 3%against the US dollar, which was the result of the US upgrade trade friction.For a long time, developed countries have continuously demanded the elasticity of the exchange rate in RMB, but when the marketization of the RMB exchange rate has increased and the fluctuations have increased, some countries have shown Ye Gonghao's attitude.Very ridiculous.
As we all know, although the foreign exchange market fluctuates recently, Chinese companies and residents have not had any panic.More and more people realize that it is unrealistic to obtain investment income by buying and selling foreign exchange, and it is not safe to transfer financial assets overseas.In mature market countries, there are few companies and residents to obtain investment income depending on frying foreign exchange. Although the so -called Watanabe Mrs. Watanabe has appeared in Japan, the actual results are not the legend of the year.
The short -term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is normal, but in the long run, my country's economic fundamentals determine that the renminbi cannot continue to depreciate.China is still the largest engine of world economic growth, with excellent market space and growth potential.With the improvement of economic development, the RMB market exchange rate will continue to approach the procurement power.Specifications will inevitably suffer huge losses.
China does not exist in so -called national monopoly capitalism
In recent years, internationally, it has been believed that the rapid development of the Chinese economy is the result of the implementation of national monopoly capitalism, and this is why Chinese products are super competitive in the international market.This statement has no basis.
In fact, China's economic ingredients have shown increasingly obvious diversified characteristics, and the market share of state -owned enterprises has continued to decline.Coupled with the government's public services, the state -owned economy accounts for less than 40%of GDP.Many of the state -owned enterprises have been listed at home and abroad. In fact, mixed -owned enterprises, 100%of pure state -owned enterprises have very few.Among large state -owned enterprises, a large number of subsidiaries have also been transferred to private enterprises.Even central state -owned enterprises are in competition.More than 20 years ago, when the reform of the military industry enterprise, each industry was divided into two or more companies.
At present, private and foreign capital can enter almost all industries and areas, with only very few legal and policy restrictions.Whether it is rail transit, equipment manufacturing, energy raw materials, etc., different ownership companies can be seen.We adhere to the principles of neutrality in competition, emphasize equally for various market entities, encourage them to compete and cooperate, and achieve complementary advantages and win -win.China's industrial policies and credit policies are guided, and the implementation of various policies must adhere to the principle of marketization and rule of law.This guiding policy is essentially not much different from the US export multiplication plan and the EU's industrial rejuvenation strategy.Internationally, there are often people complaining that the Chinese government provides huge subsidies to various products. In fact, this criticism is difficult to establish logically. If all enterprises are subsidized, all enterprises must be set up from all enterprises.
The financial industry has also formed a variety of patterns. my country's financial institutions have both state -owned controlling and private and foreign -funded holdings. Listed institutions and agricultural credit cooperatives also participate in natural persons.Of the 4588 banking financial institutions, more than 3,000 private capital holders.Most 170 Chinese -funded insurance companies are private holdings, and most of the securities companies and fund companies are also controlled by social capital.Even if five large commercial banks, more than a decade ago, it can reach 25%of foreign -funded shares. At that time, it was very difficult to apply for a branch in the United States.At present, the average non -state -owned capital equity of large banks in China has an average of about 30%, and some even exceed 40%.In particular, although the benefits of the five major banks in China have continued to increase, the market share has continued to decline. Now it is only 37%. Compared with major European and American economies, its market concentration is significantly low.
Another typical example is that China Fintech has lived in a leading position in the world. The important reason is that the government has adopted a cautious attitude towards private Internet companies and created a fair competition environment. Large -scale banks controlled by state -owned controlled from the beginning of the beginningAdopting a competitive and cooperative attitude.For example, Alipay was born and developed rapidly by the support and cooperation of large and medium -sized banks such as Construction Bank and developed a rapid development more than ten years ago.Now all fintech companies have formed a strategic partnership with large and medium -sized banks.Other banks also vigorously develop fintech, and conduct all -round cooperation with Internet companies in terms of fundraising, account opening, payment settlement, and inclusive finance. They have grown up and make up for each other. The effect is very significant.It can be seen that even in the most important and core areas, the Chinese government has not adopted a simple state -owned enterprise monopoly policy.
to improve the goal of the corporate governance structure will not change
In recent years, some foreign institutions and organizations have caused many doubts about the company's corporate governance of Chinese enterprises, especially the role of party organizations has been seriously misunderstood.Chinese private enterprises have always been based on the company's articles of association and organizational structure.Independent subjects are independently operated and operated effectively in accordance with the principles of marketization, and party organizations have not intervened.
In state -owned enterprises, the party's leadership has always played the core role.The integration of party leadership into all aspects of corporate governance is the most distinctive feature of our company's governance model.... The General Secretary emphasized that adhering to the party's leadership of state -owned enterprises is a major political principle, and it must be consistent; establishing a modern enterprise system is the direction of the reform of state -owned enterprises, and it must be consistent.To deepen the reform of state -owned enterprises, we must optimize and improve corporate governance, and better play the role of party organizations, so that the two are organically integrated and promoted each other.
From the perspective of global theoretical research and practice exploration, corporate governance has no unified model, and there is no best model that can be copied and reflecting.Chinese enterprises have remained consistent with international standards in terms of basic principles and frameworks of corporate governance. The Hangzhou Summit of the 20th National Group held in China in 2016 is also clearly proposed in the bulletin to support the company's group/OECD company advocated by the Organization Organization.Governance principles.Under the general principles of principles, adapting to specific national conditions in practice to supplement and improve, in line with international practice.
Establishing a modern corporate system and adhering to the party's leadership can be completely compatible.First, in the scientific and effective checks and balance mechanisms, we promoted the shareholders' meeting, board, management, and supervisors to assume their statutory duties in their positions and their own positions.The party committee mainly plays a core role in implementing the direction, the overall situation, and guaranteeing the implementation of national legal policies, cultivating healthy corporate culture, and responsible for social responsibility. Operating decision -making is still the responsibility of the board of directors.The second is that in the protection of stakeholders, good corporate governance must fully take into account the legitimate rights and interests of shareholders, employees, customers, communities, creditors, and upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain.Our party has always adhered to the fundamental purpose of serving the people. It has rich experience in mass work and good organizational mobilization capabilities, which can better realize, maintain, and develop the legitimate rights and interests of all parties.The third is that the party organization implements a collective leadership system. The party committee and members of the board of directors and the board of supervisors also implement two -way entry. Cross -term work can better prevent insiders from controlling the control, incomplete performance of big shareholders, and inadequate performance of directors, and independent independent directors.
Practice has proved that the governance model of companies with Chinese characteristics is completely feasible.For example, the core role of the five major banking party committees of the China -Peasant China Council of China has fully played a series of major measures after joint -stock reform, the introduction of strategic investors, and listing at home and abroad. It has achieved historic breakthroughs in corporate governance and operating performance.Some banks won the international award of corporate governance ten years ago.These banks have been highly internationalized, and shareholders and institutional networks are all over the world. Some key operating indicators, such as labor productivity, capital return, cost income ratio, capital adequacy ratio, and allocation of coverage.This also fully proves that we can successfully explore the excellent company governance model with Chinese characteristics while drawing on international experience.
unswervingly promoting the opening of the financial industry to the outside world
The opening of the financial industry is the general trend, it will not stop, nor will it be backward.In 2013, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest trading country. By 2018, China's imports and exports had accounted for 10.8%and 12.8%of the world's global countries. More than half of countries around the world regarded China as the largest trading partner.Compared with the production and exchange of goods, the degree of opening up in my country's service industry is relatively lagging. Finance is an important area for the service industry. In order to better serve the needs of the real economy and the life of the people, it is necessary to further expand the opening of the outside world.
In 2018, we announced 15 banking insurance industry opening measures to the outside world. In May this year, we announced that 12 new measures were announced in May this year, and it is currently implemented.In the future, there is still a large space for opening. At present, foreign capital accounts for only 2%of the Chinese A stock market value, and the proportion of the Chinese bond market is only 2.9%. Foreign bank assets account for 1.6%of all commercial bank assets. Foreign insurance companies account forIt is 5.8%, and there is still a lot of room for improvement.We especially welcome foreign institutions with characteristic and expertise in risk management and control records in risk control, credit rating, wealth management, professional factoring, consumer finance, endowment insurance, health insurance, etc.Innovate financial products and stimulate market vitality.
In the process of expanding opening, the complexity and contagious financial risks will also increase.For a big development country like us, it is particularly important to prevent and control financial risks.We must be particularly alert to the large -scale output of cross -border funds and hype, and resolutely avoid excessive bubbles of real estate and financial assets.
China Development must be based on its own thing
Without any external forces to change China's forward direction, the Chinese nation must firmly control destiny in its own hands.At present, the country is in accordance with the deployment of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China to promote the transformation from high speed growth to high -quality development.Can we go more stable? The key is whether we can handle various contradictions and problems.This means that first of all, it is necessary to effectively respond to the internal challenges facing economic and social development, especially the aging of population, environmental pollution, unreasonable income distribution, unbalanced regional development, and insufficient innovation capabilities.
The population over 60 years old accounts for about 18%. It is expected that by 2025, the population of elderly people over 60 will reach more than 300 million, entering a typical elderly society.The pace of population aging has accelerated, which has a profound impact on all aspects of the economy and society.In addition to the decrease in the labor population, the decrease in savings rate, and not conducive to long -term economic development, IThe national pension medical and social security system will also face severe tests.
my country's environmental pollution is still very serious. Economic losses caused by environmental pollution and ecological destruction each year have reached hundreds of trillion yuan.The Party Central Committee with ... the core of the comrades attaches great importance to ecological environmental protection. The General Secretary has repeatedly emphasized that Green Water and Qingshan is Jinshan Yinshan.Although the cost of pollution control is high, the vital interests of people across the country must comprehensively use economic, legal, administrative and other means, keep an eye on the focus of the problem, and resolutely fight against pollution prevention.
Unreasonable income distribution is also a prominent problem.After the reform and opening up, the income gap between the Chinese departments, industries, classes, and groups increased, and the unbalanced income distribution caused by some unfair competition was particularly prominent.Due to the serious underestimation of the rents of their own housing, there is a lot of room for improvement in residents' income accounting, but the Gini coefficient in my country is still high in general, and we need to attach great importance to it.At present, the battle for poverty alleviation is in a period of victory, and the task is very arduous.After the realization of the stage goals, poverty alleviation will still be a long -term social cause.
Development differences in different regions in my country are also obvious.There are still obvious economic imbalances between the eastern and western, south, and north, especially some old industrial areas and resource cities are facing tremendous pressure on sustainable development.More seriously, there is a net decline in population in some places.This problem is not resolved. It will be very detrimental to the reasonable adjustment of my country's industrial structure, and it will not be conducive to improving the overall level of sustainable development of the national economy.
Insufficient innovation capabilities seriously restrict my country's economic development.In recent years, our attention to scientific and technological education has continued to increase, and the scale of investment has been increasing, but the effect is not ideal enough.The prominent problem is that there are still many institutional mechanism obstacles in science and technology education. For example, the evaluation system of scientific and technological achievements and the government resource allocation methods directly related to them need to be improved.There are bottlenecks in the transformation and application of innovative scientific and technological achievements, and some core technologies also have a stuck neck phenomenon, which seriously restricts the economic turn to high -quality development.
For the above problems, we must comprehensively deepen reforms, take multiple approach, take multiple measures, and solve it.The financial industry has a lot of action in these areas, which is also the deserved meaning of financial supply -side structural reforms.We firmly believe that under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with ... comrades -in -law, the Chinese people will be able to achieve two hundred years of grand goal!(Original title: Guo Shuqing: No one in China can block it)
