Zhang Wang: Abes risk -aversion balance strategy for China

Author: Zhang Wang

On September 17, 2018, three days before the election of the President of the Liberal Party in 2018, Japan NHK TV reported on the news of the Japanese Maritime Self -Defense Force proactive submarine cruise in the evening of the Japanese Maritime Self -Defense Force.According to reports, the ship cooperated with the three sea self -ships such as the Japanese quasi -aircraft carrier Kaga in the South China Sea to restrain China ’s expansion in the region.

Since the visit of Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang's visit to Japan in May this year, China -Japan political relations have improved significantly.Economic and trade cooperation projects have gradually increased. Under such circumstances, why does Japan dare to provoke China's sensitive nerves in the South China Sea?As the Prime Minister of Japan is about to launch a historic visit to China, how should we have the diplomatic confirmation of China in Japan?

Coexistence and cooperation with Source

On October 14, one week before Abe visited China, two major events occurred in Tokyo, which was deeply symbolic.First, Prime Minister Abe held a self -defense parade in advance at Chaoxia Luzhi.The parade showed a large number of island defense equipment introduced by the Japanese military in the past two years (especially the 88 -type and 12 -land land -to -ship missiles deployed in Okinawa).The second is the 14th Beijing -Tokyo Forum co -sponsored by the Beijing Foreign Languages Bureau and Japan's NPO NPO in Tokyo.The elites from all walks of life in China, Japan, and media gathered together to discuss the way of improving Sino -Japanese relations.One is the parade and the other is the dialogue, which reflects the complex characteristics of the current Chinese -Japanese relations prevention and cooperation coexisting.

Tianzaki Shiro, a senior political journalist in Japan's current affairs and Communications Society, analyzed the truth of the Abe official residence published in 2014 (Lecture News Agency, 2014) that although Abe's personal understanding is close to Japan's right, the Abe regimeThe essence is realistic conservatives.Conservatives means that it has internal value conflicts in historical issues, and even in the United States.But starting from the reality of national interests, Abe's diplomatic wrist is not restricted to ideology and is flexible.

Abe's current strategic judgment is also a typical Hedging strategy, that is, seeking a balance between China and the United States, to maintain the flexibility of diplomacy to maximize Japan's national interests.Faced with China's rise, Japan strengthened national defense on the one hand for self -protection for the map.In the past year, the Self -Defense Force has accelerated the equipment update. It pays special attention to island defense capabilities, fast maneuverability and missile defense capabilities.The army of Lu Ziwater and Land Mobile Team, the 16th -type motorized combat vehicle and the AAV7 amphibious chariot.The purchase of the empty F-35A stealth fighter, the launch of the sea-Zizi Aegis destroyer Meroy (DDG-179) is a reflection of the prevention of one side.The Japanese submarine cruise in the South China Sea obviously needs to be understood in this context.

But on the other hand, Abe also learned that China has started and cannot be ignored.To strengthen economic exchanges with China, which is beneficial to the recovery with the Japanese economy, it can also prevent the U.S. forces from being unable to catch it.It is particularly worth noting that, for Abe, the Japanese and American relations in the past year are more bitter and less.In the case where US unilateralism has intensified, Tokyo believes that Beijing also has a positive need to respond to the approach of China and Japan.It is also a response to Japan's national interests that adhere to the safeguarding the free trade system and master the active China's implementation tactics in the North Korean nuclear crisis, which is in line with Japan's national interests.The adjustment of Abe in the Japanese economy is particularly welcome.This summer, Toyo Economy and other many Japanese financial publications have published specials to introduce Chinese innovative technologies in recent years, and discuss the reversal of Chinese and Japan's economic strength in the past forty years.Today, in Japanese dramas, the bridge section where Japanese presidents go to Shenzhen to go to Shenzhen often appear. It can be seen that Japanese society's perception of China has begun to change.

Pay attention to Japan's delicate psychology

In the Strategic Triangle theory of international relations, if a country wants to be in the active advantage in the triangular relations, it should try to highlight its own strategic value and become a pivot of the left and right sources.This time, China and Japan showed that Japan in the world's third largest economy was trying to play a balanced person in China and the United States.

Miyaga Nangyan, a diplomatic commentator who has worked in the North American Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, recently pointed out in an article that Japan's security guarantee should be considered by the Japanese themselves.Japanese diplomatic elites' inner self -autonomous mentality.In the 2000s, China and Japan had no quarrel on the issue of Yasuki.According to the research of Japanese scholars, Ichiya and Lang, whether to support the Prime Minister's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, the polls of major newspapers in Japan show that the Japanese people who oppose worship are more than supporting worship.However, if the investigation is changed to whether it supports foreign governments' protests on the issue of the Yasukuni country, most Japanese people are resistant to China's pressure.At that time, the general public opinion in Japan was that they did not want the Prime Minister to stop worship due to foreign pressures, reflecting that the issue of the Yasukuni issue itself was not the key, and the psychology of eager to be respected by other countries was the focus.

How to fight for the support of Japan's middle country is of great significance in the long run.In addition to improving the win -win benefits when improving Sino -Japanese relations, it is also necessary to deeply understand the various subtle psychology of the Japanese side.layout!

The author is an associate professor at the International Education Department of Waseda University in Japan