Tan Qi and Liu Cheng: The deterrent of extreme pressure has become Trump's distinctive features. Reluious analysis of the American game strategy can help China avoid the trade war or win the trade war.

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The deterrent of extreme pressure, negotiations of business transactions, and promises of playing and playing seem to be a distinctive feature of Trump's foreign economic and trade game. He has achieved phased success in the re -talks of global major trading partners such as Europe and North America.EssenceThe Sino -US trade war has not signs of ease, and may even intensify.A rational analysis of the American game strategy helps China to avoid trade or win the trade war.

According to the analysis of the Nobel Prize in Economics, Xie Lin's conflict strategy, in international relations, there are extensive conflicts in economic interests and geopolitics.There are also a series of behaviors such as deterrence, negotiation, and promise.

The U.S. priority strategy initiated by Trump has almost involved major global economies. Sino -US trade disputes are only the most noticeable pair in this vortex, and Sino -US trade conflicts have expanded to intellectual property rights and WTO global.How to know and solve these complicated conflicts?Is it clear that the facts and the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages can solve the conflict?

At present, most analysis is limited to getting data, putting the facts, and reasoning. It seems that the United States against globalization is against economic logic. China supports free trade, insists on opening up and occupies a favorable position in moral.EssenceHow to understand and deal with various unreasonable or even gornemous behaviors in the United States?And how to understand the zero tariff negotiation between the United States and Europe?Obviously, the existing explanations did not deeply understand the surplus behavior of the United States.

The analysis of classic economics theory tells us that free trade is generally mutually beneficial, and various data analysis also shows that the Sino -US trade deficit is not just benefited by China.What about damage?As Xie Lin said, if the reason that it cannot explain the trade conflict logically, we may wish to find the answer from strategic thinking.

Most of the people who just pay attention to their own interests and call the United States priority all day, most of them are wasteful.May wish to change the idea, start from the conflict and its solution strategy, implement a positive and effective response strategy, and adopt a strategy that is effective, even if it pays a certain cost, forcing the other party to tell the most urgent.It is the right thing to not keep the credit.

Deterrence

In international relations, because of the intertwined and complicated relationship between countries, confrontation and conflict between countries are inevitable.Strategy is the usual means of use, especially those countries that occupy some advantages in technology, economy, and military. They hope that the opponent will act according to their own wishes and achieve their goals by changing their opponent expectations.The United States is undoubtedly a superpower in the world today. It has an inevitable political and economic and technical advantage. It is a consistent style of deterring other countries. How to understand the behavior of the United States from the perspective of deterrent?

First of all, according to the theory of game theory and strategic conflict, the reason why deterrence is effective is that there is a wide range of common interests at the same time that there are conflicts between the opposite parties.You cannot play your due role.

The data and facts of Sino -US economic and trade exchanges are relatively clear. It is difficult to say that which party is completely beneficiaries or damagers. As the two largest economies in the world, there are oppositions and conflicts.Economic growth, climate change, anti -terrorism security and other fields have common interests.China's high -quality and cheap products have improved the quality of life of American consumers, maintaining low interest rates in the US capital market, and the United States is an important export market in China.

These facts have gradually become obvious in the Sino -US trade dialogue and debate, indicating that China and the United States are not completely running down in terms of economic and trade relations and even global interests.And deterrence, not to completely cut off the economic and trade relations between China and the United States.It is like a criminal bundled with explosive bags. It is mainly to protect himself. As long as he has the opportunity to detonate explosives, he will only threaten the same as the same as the same threat.

Secondly, according to deterrence theory, the threat must pay attention to threatening the continuity of time and behavior, because subsequent behaviors enhance the deterrent effect of early behavior.If the threat can be divided into several stages, the threat can generally enhance the deterrent effect through a series of behaviors.Fighting is generally fully prepared in advance; threats are not one -time, but a continuous extraction process; the effect of deterrence is not in one -time action, but in continuous, especially continuous psychological pressure, and layers of conduction to them to the layers of conduction to them to the layers of transmission to them to the layers of conduction to them to the layers of conduction to them to the layer of conduction to them to the layers of transmission to them to the layer of conduction to them to the layer of conduction to them to the layers of conduction to them to the layers of conduction to them.The deterrent party causes the feeling of Mount Tai.

Judging from the progress of tariffs implemented by the United States, it has a clear timetable and the characteristics of the action of the opponent. Obviously, the US trade friction in China has been fully prepared and conspired for a long time.This threat is not illusory, but is real. Just like a landlord wants to drive away the tenant, he does not take a forced driving method, but to disconnect the water tomorrow and make noise tomorrow.End.

Of course, the deterrent behavior of the United States is not perfect.According to deterrence theory, deterrence is generally highly hidden. If the muzzle of the deterrent party is vivid and clear in the eyes of the opponent, the deterrent effect will be greatly reduced.The United States is currently setting a deterrent target for the trade deficit, and the deterrent chip is actually transparent for both parties.Therefore, whether deterrence can succeed, the key depends on China's attitude towards the US trade deficit and the importance of the US trade surplus to the Chinese economy.

China is currently a global factory and is not an American factory. Chinese goods and services are unswervingly in the general direction of the world. Therefore, these trade chips are not the weakness of China.China can accept a certain degree of trade losses to some extent, that is, China can afford a certain degree of trade war, and the deterrence of the United States can not work.

Generally speaking, if people face revenge in the face of deterrence, this may be unfavorable, which is equivalent to actively exposing their true intentions to their opponents. Making asymmetric and fighting may be a more effective strategy.

In addition, forcing the threat party to transfer the object, or cause illusion to the outside world, insist on the warning of the other party, and show ignorance and stubbornness. This is easier to confuse the threat party, which can make the threat party fail to achieve the goal.In short, in the face of this deterrent, naked threats cannot be chaotic, and we must pay attention to the art of struggle.

Negotiation

Although the law of weak meat and strong food is existing in the old politics order, it is still the mainstream model to resolve national conflicts through negotiations.Under the conflict strategy, negotiation is a very professional thing.The scope of the use of negotiation strategies is quite extensive. Business negotiations, political negotiations, and diplomatic negotiation all have some corresponding skills. Based on the strength, they have considerable negotiation skills and can obtain greater benefits.

First of all, according to deterrence theory, the negotiation strength may not be transformed into an advantage.Sometimes, it is not a good thing to have absolute strength in negotiations. The advantage may also be disadvantages. Freedom is just the freedom of concession.The ability to curb the opponent is often limiting their own abilities, just like breaking the boat and sinking, and then they are born to death. If the opponent cuts off its retreat, it has absolute negotiation abilityFang will find nothing.

Nowadays, in the Sino -US trade relations, it seems that the United States is active everywhere, has absolute negotiation capabilities, and has the advantage of high condescending China. However, the key to the problem is whether China accepts this advantage and is afraid.The premise of the US negotiation advantage is that China recognizes and accepts this advantage.If China's opening up is comprehensive, not only is it open to the United States, then the absolute advantage of the United States may be much smaller.

China adheres to the Belt and Road Initiative and carry out diversified diplomacy. In fact, it is essentially reducing excessive dependence on the US market. China has reduced the threat of US trade deficit chips to a certain extent.of.

Secondly, under the conflict strategy, negotiations are a continuous process.Can't eat hot tofu, and the conflict between the conflict is negotiated, but the beginning of the contradiction rather than the end.The goal of negotiation is not to be eager to get the final result, but to strengthen communication with negotiations to better understand the opponent.

The negotiations are not one -time. We must avoid thinking that the opponent's thinking mode of non -enemy or friends. Although the conflict between the two parties has conflicts of interest, the result of a win -win results is also the common interests of negotiations between the two parties.

At present, the Sino -US economic and trade frictions have a tendency to expand from time to time. The negotiations between China and the United States in the fields of trade, intellectual property, and networks may be intertwined and entangled.More naive.During the negotiation process, you must not be impatient.The process of conflict between China and the United States is itself a process of negotiation. The goal of negotiation may not be a practical goal, and it is more important to communicate with the opponents.

If there is no continuous exchanges, the agreements reached by both parties in the short term are unstable, and even the United States even has the situation of the United States regardless of national credit.

Of course, China shows that it is not afraid of fighting nor a trade war. China has a bottom -line thinking in Sino -US relations.China has enough toughness to deal with trade frictions, so it is not rushing to achieve a rushing agreement that actually harms national interests.Economic and trade relations are the cockpit stones of Sino -US relations. Destruction of economic and trade relations means that Sino -US relations have a comprehensive risk.The United States has always held a negative attitude towards the Chinese market economy and believes that it is national capitalism, which violates the facts.

For more than 40 years of reform, the degree of marketization is obvious to all, and the environment of the other party's open and market competition has continued to improve.China can set more issues in economic and trade negotiations, and cross -negotiating on market economy, intellectual property, technical transactions, ideology, network space, etc., and setting up limited agenda are important means to deal with negotiations and strive for initiative.The Chinese attitude towards negotiations is open, diverse, but not a principle.

Finally, the noise in the negotiation process is objectively rationally treated.In the conflict strategy, business rivals will always render a certain atmosphere to achieve the purpose of disturbing public opinion and changing the direction of negotiation.

In the process of national negotiations, one -party negotiator will always try to create a variety of atmosphere that is beneficial to themselves, emphasize his firm position, thereby aroused public indignation and obtain a favorable position for themselves in the negotiations. These are possible.

Of course, Trump, as the world's largest President of Twitter, shows off his achievements from time to time, but he wants to work hard to prove how the first strategy of the United States works.

These news are true and false, false and truthful, and people who do not know the truth have been wrapped in.Trump's talked about GDP growth data, employment rate, strong US stock market, etc., whether it is really brought about by his tax reduction, is questionable.

As a global high -speed economy, China has contributed more than 30%to the growth of world economic growth in the past few years. The structure and toughness of China's economy are still strong, and they must have sufficient confidence in this.Although the Chinese economy has caused some problems in economic growth in the process of controlling debt and deleveraging, it is not necessary to think that the Chinese economy is over. This is just an episode that the Chinese economy has actively contracted and increases to higher quality growth.

In addition, in the process of China and the United States about trade negotiations, all sectors of society, including the people, pay full attention to the so -called national Games battle, and the media will also play a role in helping the flames.

In international negotiations, negotiating opponents often want to use the pressure or emotions of the outside world to interfere with the process and effect of the negotiation.In this case, the trend of ideology such as populism is worthy of vigilance.The road to realizing a modern power of modernization will be noisy, but it must have anti -interference ability, maintain strategic determination, and cannot be chaotic.

Promise

According to the theory of conflict strategy, in the process of deterrence, negotiations, and transactions, there is an unavoidable compromise and bargaining. A reasonable promise in negotiations and deterrence can break the deadlock in negotiations and promote the active development of both parties to the negotiations.

In the negotiations of Sino -US trade friction, China has the ability to make various promises. The huge domestic market consumption scale in China can resolve the problem of Sino -US trade deficit in high -tech products.Price.

First of all, do not allow early promises.In the negotiations, making a decision is not an easy thing for both parties, not to mention that more often the negotiations do not understand their true intentions.In the process of bargaining, there is a process of exploring each other's bottom line between the two sides.The promise is to promote the position of both parties to approach each other, but it will also make the other party suspect the firmness of their position.Early promised that the other party may make the other party suspect that their conditions are too simple, increasing the probability that the promise is not executed.

Since the Sino -US trade negotiations, the United States has been promised to be reversed, to a large extent because China has actively responded to showing the desire to end trade disputes in impatience.But the speed of desire is not reached. On the contrary, if China is not so sincere, the American blackmail may not be so powerful.

Secondly, there must be other methods to prevent opponents from not performing commitments.The promise is to put forward conditions to each other's opponents. In fact, it is difficult for both parties to make a convincing and self -restraint promise.For example, a kidnapping criminal, he may not believe that he will release the hostages, nor does he believe that the hostages will not sell him.Therefore, in the process of promising, the enforcement of promise must be carried out in a supervisory method. The two parties must formulate relevant measurement standard definition and inaction.

If the negotiation process can be divided into several stages, the two parties can seek mutual trust atmosphere at a small price, and hope that the other party will show their sincerity and gradually achieve greater goals.In the future Sino -US trade negotiations, promises must also be gradually, gradual, and observed. You can first solve some small trade problems, establish mutual trust, and solve other difficult problems.The promise is not to solve the problem at one time, but to continue to accumulate mutual trust in China and the United States.

(Note: Tan Qi, a lecturer at the School of Arts and Sciences of the University of Defense Sciences. Liu Cheng, assistant researcher at the School of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This only represents the author's personal point of view.