Wang Huiyao: Sino -US trade friction future trend and think tank suggestions

Wang Huiyao: Before the G20 summit meets the Chinese and American leaders, the two countries should not upgrade tariffs, but should use more contact to jointly solve the current trade friction.

At present, the Sino -US economic and trade disputes have entered a deadlock, but from the perspective of the fundamental interests of the people of the two countries and the well -being of the global economy, both China and the United States should also have the opportunity to find a rational method to deal with the current problems.

On September 29, experts from the Globalization Think Tank (CCG) organization of China Folk Think Tank visited the exchange group that had just ended the five -day trip to the United States.Through the inspection and exchanges of this trip, we feel more: the more we have the problem of economic and trade relations between China and the United States, the more the issue of economic and trade relations between China and the United States requires the two parties to improve each other and break their prejudices and reduce misjudgments.There are too many extensive interests between China and the United States, and cannot be solved by thinking by the Cold War.

We believe that by returning to negotiation communication, keeping credit, respecting the results and consensus of each round of negotiations, not repeated impermanence, confirming each other's principles to carry out exchanges as soon as possible, in order to reach one before the meeting of the G20 summit can reach a meeting to reach a meeting of the US leaders meeting in the G20 summit.No longer upgrading tariffs, using more contacts to jointly reduce and solve the current Sino -US trade friction arrangement is a more feasible solution.

CCG think tank visits to Washington and New York have visited Wilson Center, American Enterprise Research Institute, Hudson Research Institute, Traditional Foundation, CSIS (Strategy and International Research Center), Foreign Relations Committee, US Congress, State Council, US -China tradeThe committees of committees, the United States and China Relations National Committee and other institutions have exchanged exchanges with the well -known think tank senior management and experts, members of parliament, government departments, and chamber of commerce.We also generally feel the anxiety of the United States' trade friction in China and the United States. Many mainstream American people do not want to expand trade frictions, and we also hope to see that China and the United States can avoid greater conflicts.

In order to try to enhance each other's understanding between China and the United States in new ways and play the role of two -track and civil diplomacy, CCG also released the Sino -US trade relations and challenges at the Hudson Institute of the US Think Tank: past, present, future and policiesThe option think tank report and held related seminars.In the report, we reviewed the mutual benefit and win -win situation that China and the United States had established diplomatic relations in China and the United States since the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.It is recommended to analyze and predict the three development situations that may occur in the future of Sino -US trade disputes, and recommend preparations.

The first is the most ideal situation: China and the United States reached an agreement through negotiations to terminate mutual tariffs.Based on the principle of win -win, the two sides have re -adjusted compromise and compromise in accordance with their respective demands.

The second possibility is: Sino -US trade disputes will exist for a long time, and the relationship between the two countries will remain in a friction mdash; mdash; negotiate mdash; mdash; settle in the cycle state of mdash; mdash;All need to be controlled within a certain limit and range.

The third possibility is: China and the United States continue to increase tariffs on each other until a comprehensive trade war occurs, and even the Sino -US economy has decoupled.This is a pattern that China and the United States do not want to see.

Judging from the degree of interrelationship between China and the United States and the complementary cooperative relationship between each other in the global value chain, of course, we hope to have the first situation.Existing, but given the profound changes in the political ecology of the United States, and the recently signed US -Canadian -Mexo trade agreement, especially the US Vice President Pence's comprehensive attack on China, another quite a considerable possibility is that it is a long period of time.Both the Sino -US economy will continue, and the two countries must make full preparations for the psychology and mechanism of solving problems to avoid slipping to the third and worst case.

There are many common demands in China and the United States

Regarding the results of Sino -US trade frictions, all walks of life in the United States have stated that trade frictions are not good for the economy of China and the United States. Many American politics, corporate and think tanks are reluctant to see the serious consequences of trade friction.But at the same time, in the exchange, we also realized that all sectors of the United States have a strong consensus to shift to China. Regardless of the reason for this consensus is the psychological impact brought about by China's national strength, or as they said, the current trade difference between the two parties to the two parties,The dissatisfaction and concerns of market openness, intellectual property protection, technological transfer, and geographical expansion.

In the exchange, we also introduced the Chinese side to the United States in the aspects of the elimination of trade differences, opening up and intellectual property protection, etc., and pointed out that China, especially Chinese senior leaders, has no principled conflict with the United States, China and the United States, China and the United States.Both sides have a lot of common demands. Sino -US leaders emphasize the protection of intellectual property rights and oppose the transfer of forced technology. Therefore, the negotiation and coordination of both parties requires the implementation and implementation of the implementation and implementation.

When communicating with the US think tank personnel, the other party also expressed concerns about Sino -US relations.However, consistent with Chinese personnel is that many of them also think that there is still huge room for cooperation between China and the United States to develop and utilize. As long as China and the United States do not take the initiative to give up cooperation, there is still a lot of elastic space in China and the United States to avoid further confrontation.

People in the US corporate community expressed their concerns about technological protection. They believed that Sino -US economic and trade frictions would cause them to lose their due benefit.In this regard, we believe that the Chinese government is vigorously implementing technological protection. China has been constantly improving intellectual property protection, including the establishment of intellectual property courts and Internet courts. Some problems currently faced can be resolved by continuing to carry out bilateral investment agreement negotiations.

When it comes to multilateral global and local trading systems, many of the United States have expressed their attitude towards WTO reform. At the same time, the trade system represented by CPTPP may become a powerful supplement and replacement of future global trading systems.In fact, it is a good idea to reform the WTO system by representatives of developed countries and developing countries such as the United States, China, Europe, and Japan.At the same time, we also expressed positive views on the future of CPTPP, thinking that when China appropriate, we can consider joining this organization to better meet the needs of China's development and changes in the international situation.

In terms of communication between the two countries, Chinese and American experts believe that both China and the United States should strengthen exchanges, contact and communicate more.The channels for exchanges between the two countries should be strengthened, including China can not be limited to traditional communication channels. It should also be able to deal with the conservative think tank that compares the Trump administration and increase contact channels.

Suggestions to break the deadlock in China and the United States to find a way out

Comprehensive CCG's long -term research in Sino -US relations, combined with the US trip to the United States, we understand the U.S. opinions and positions we have mastered, and we try to put forward some suggestions that can break the current trading friction and find solutions for reference.

1. Maintain the existing negotiation results of the previous rounds of China and the United States, seize the window period, and use the head of the multilateral occasion to seek breakthroughs

In the third round of China -US negotiations in early June this year, it is reported that China may import about US $ 70 billion in US agricultural products, energy and manufacturing products that can import about $ 70 billion.Ambassador Cui Tiankai also mentioned that the working level of both China and the United States also reached a lot of consensus in several negotiations.In addition, when Trump visited China last year, China and the United States also signed a $ 250 billion bilateral trade order. China ’s sincerity is obvious to all.

On the other hand, the United States should also return to the normal negotiation process.The US -China trade deficit can be resolved without day and night.The development of the Chinese market will also increase imports to the United States. The United States should also relax the export of some products in China, and the two sides jointly strive to gradually alleviate the trade deficit.

In addition, the 2018 G20 Summit will be held in Argentina next month, and senior White House officials have also mentioned many times that President Xi and President Trump will meet in Argentina.Before the Supreme Leaders of the two countries meet, the two sides can seize this window period, reach a certain degree of consensus, and even reach a new agreement between the Sino -US non -trade war.

2. Given that the Chinese and American governments attach importance to the protection of intellectual property rights, China and the United States can reach a new agreement on intellectual property rights

One of the important points in the Sino -US trade dispute lies in the protection of intellectual property rights.However, on this issue, China and the United States have no essential and principled conflict: both China and the United States require the protection of intellectual property rights and not allowed compulsory technology to transfer.

In the Boao Forum, Chinese leaders pointed out that the protection of intellectual property rights should be strengthened and proposed to re -establish the State Intellectual Property Office to improve the enforcement efforts.China and the United States should reach new agreements in the protection of intellectual property rights and establish a long -term bilateral cooperation mechanism in intellectual property rights.At the same time, China and the United States are members of the WTO. The two countries can also conduct bilateral negotiations under the framework of trade -related intellectual property agreements to further cooperate in intellectual property protection.

3. Made in China 2025 also welcomes the United States to participate

The outside world, including the United States, is very concerned about Made in China 2025, but Made in China 2025 is proposed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China. It is different from the national strategic planning such as the 13th Five -Year Plan. It is also different from the industries that improve the industry that are often implemented by countries such as the United States and other countries.policy.Premier Li Keqiang has also mentioned many times that foreign multinational companies are welcomed to participate in the 2025 project.In fact, China's promotion of industrial upgrading and development advanced manufacturing industry has also brought a lot of opportunities to American companies.

For example, several American companies provide components for China's first jet passenger aircraft COMAC C919.While helping foreign investors to participate in excavation opportunities, China promotes a market economy to ensure that Made in China 2025 is consistent with international norms.The U.S. government should re -adjust the export restrictions on China's high -tech products and the reform of the investment review committee of China's acquisition of US companies.

4. China and the United States should continue BIT negotiations to promote the negotiation of new Sino -US free trade agreement

The trade relations between China and the United States are closely related to each other, and the reduction of tariffs meets the needs of the economic development of both China and the United States, and it also provides a solution for solving the trade deficit between the two countries.To achieve this goal, China and the United States should follow the way to establish a free trade agreement in the United States and the European Union.This can not only promote the economic liberalization of the two countries, but also resolve the Sino -US trade dispute by cutting bilateral trade deficits.

At present, the China -US BIT negotiation has completed 34 rounds of consultation and exchanged three negative lists.Under the BIT framework, non -tariff barriers can be eliminated without affecting bilateral investment in China and the United States.The Chinese government can also set up a foreign investment committee equivalent to the Investment Examination Commission (CFIUS) to ensure that it is impartially treated with foreign China.

5. China and the United States need to accelerate the adjustment and reform of economic structure, and improve trade imbalances on the basis of a large increase.

Some of the requirements made by American companies are in line with some reform suggestions in China.China can transform external pressure into an advantage, increase reform, and bring necessary transformations.China can take trade frictions as an opportunity to accelerate trade liberalization and facilitating reforms, accelerate the reform of state -owned enterprises and reduce national administrative costs.At the same time, China can continue to expand the open market and realize the commitment made by the leader of China Leaders at the Boao Forum in 2018: further relaxation of market access, creating a more favorable investment environment for investors, strengthening intellectual property protection and increasing imports.China and the United States can explore a cooperation mechanism to strengthen this cooperation.

The United States also needs to make domestic structural adjustments to increase savings and reduce government bonds.In the past 20 years, the savings rate of American families has been declining. Economic globalization has made some people in the United States profit and some people have damaged interests. HoweverAnd breeds populism and protectionism.To some extent, the trade friction initiated by President Trump is a manifestation of the dissatisfaction of the American people.U.S. policy makers should pay attention to domestic improvement policies in the United States, and strategies such as re -distribution or improvement of workers' ability.

6. Innovate the method of trade statistics in China and the United States, fairness and fairness shows the value of the two countries, including serving trade, tourism, studying abroad, etc.

The current official data statistical method is applicable to the world before globalization.Sino -US trade under the 21st Century Global Value Chain should use the latest statistical methods to reflect the real trade value.The trade deficit data between the United States and China will be different due to different computing methods.China has become an indispensable part of the global manufacturing supply chain. China's exported goods are mainly components produced by foreign countries and are transported to assembled in China.Based on the added value, the US trade deficit with China will decrease by 30%-40%.

According to research by the Oxford Economic Society, if the value of these imported parts is removed from China's exports, the US trade deficit with China will be reduced by half, which is equivalent to 1%of the US GDP, and it is equivalent to the US trade with the United States to the European Union.Decline.In the future, the trade between China and the United States will be calculated in a global value chain. This will not only more accurately show the true value of the two countries, but also more fair and fair.The U.S. government also needs to realize that the Sino -US trade deficit is related to the large number of profits and revenue of the large number of overseas companies in the United States.

7. Explore the establishment of the Sino -US infrastructure investment fund and expand infrastructure cooperation

China and the United States have broad space for cooperation in the field of infrastructure: the United States has a great strategy for the transformation of infrastructure in the United States, and China has huge investment and rich experience in infrastructure construction.China and the United States can promote the expansion of infrastructure investment funds, promote cooperation in the infrastructure field in China and the United States, and cooperate in the United States and third countries.China and the United States can learn from the successful experience of the introduction of foreign investment and foreign enterprises in Europe, optimize the operating environment of the domestic PPP project in the United States, and use key projects and iconic projects as a breakthrough to support Sino -US cooperation.China and the United States can also build infrastructure funds for U.S. highway bridges through investing in U.S. local government bonds.

8. Sino -US negotiation and cooperation to jointly promote the reform of the WTO and promote the cooperation between China and the United States in multilateral fields.At the same time, China can consider joining the TPP to promote the development of a new regional trading system

Both China and the United States are members of the WTO (WTO).China and the United States should discuss, appeal, negotiate, and cooperate under the framework of the WTO.If the United States withdraws from the WTO system alone and abandons multilateral trade negotiations and turns to bilateral negotiations, the United States will lose the most beneficiaries given by more than 100 trade member states in the world in a short time.

There are currently only 14 countries with bilateral free trade agreements (FTA) with the United States, including some important trading partners in the United States, such as the European Union, Japan, and China.The United States should stay in the WTO's multilateral system, and has a solution to China with bilateral negotiations that have not been included in the jurisdiction of the WTO through bilateral negotiation.China can invite the United States to join the China -Europe WTO reform joint working group and promise to join the government procurement agreement.

In addition, China can consider joining CPTPP and CPTPP in terms of service trade and intellectual property rights.If China considers joining TPP, it will help China's service industry and high -tech companies to go out better.

9. Strengthen the cooperation between China and the United States/states in many fields to increase two -way investment between China and the United States/states

The United States and cities have a high degree of decision -making power on their own economic affairs, and are closely related to the Chinese economy. It can be used as a strong supporter and a stabilizer of bilateral relations between China and the United States.In this exchange, some state government officials also hope to strengthen contact with China to avoid being impacted by trade friction between the two countries.China and the United States should strengthen cooperation between provincial/state and municipal government, hold the annual summit of the Sino -US province/governor, the annual summit of the Sino -US mayor, establish a cooperation platform and mechanism, and establish the funding for the construction of the China -US state government cooperation infrastructure.

10. Seeking effective China -US two -track communication channels to increase the role of civil diplomacy

Both China and the United States should attach importance to the important values of the two rails and civil diplomacy in the exchange between the two countries and increase the exchanges between China and the United States.Although there are many communication channels between China and the United States, as the Republican and conservatives of the United States and conservatives currently need to strengthen communication with conservatives and think tanks.

The United States and China, as the largest in the worldIn the second largest economy, there is a huge room for cooperation between the two countries. China and the United States need a certain elasticity space, and cooperation should not be abandoned because of some problems.In the past 40 years of China and the United States, Sino -US relations have experienced storms, but they can always find a breakthrough.The current trade friction between China and the United States is the same. This requires joint efforts between the governments of China and the United States and the people to promote the return of Sino -US economic and trade relations.China and the United States are the world's largest community of interests and the dual engine of global economic growth. We must do our best to make Sino -US economic and trade relations and global economic development.

This visit is the third time that the CCG went to the United States after the Trump administration came to power.With the continuous acceleration of the globalization process, the impact of civil diplomats on the relationship between nations and countries can no longer be underestimated.As a new type of international think tank, CCG hopes to actively promote the communication and exchanges of mainstream people in all fields in both sides through the series of two -track diplomatic United States and the United States.Some positive effects.

Note: The author is the director of the global think tank (CCG).This article is authorized by the global think tank and does not represent the FT Chinese website.CCG, referred to as CCG, is the leading international think tank in China.CCG is committed to China's globalization strategy, internationalization and internationalization of corporate internationalization. At present, there are nearly 100 research think tank research and professionals in full -time think tanks.