On October 4, US Vice President Pence delivered a long speech against China at the Hudson Institute, which has counted various evil behaviors of Chinese politics.Peece's speech was regarded by some media as the beginning of the Cold War of the 21st Century and the United States.
But is this interpretation excessive?Indeed, Sino -US relations are related to resetting, and Sino -US relations should be as impossible as in the past three or forty years.Recently, a view that is often mentioned is that the two parties of the United States have reached consensus on China and maintaining friendly contact policies for China will no longer be the mainstream of the United States.This will be a fact, and it will be the basis of Sino -US relations in the future, because the strength of China and the United States has reached the time when it has to be re -examined with each other.
But it must be emphasized that even if the attitude towards China is no longer the mainstream consensus of the United States, even if China and the United States will appear on the international stage with the face of competitors in the future, it does not mean that China and the United States will beFalling in a hostile gesture.Containment, conflict, competition and cooperation may be more appropriate to describe future Sino -US relations.In other words, the mixing of these four situations will be the normal state of the future.
Back to Burns's speech.Judging from the speech, Pence's criticism of China's political evil behavior is not strict, but since Trump took office, these problems MDASH; mdash; China ’s domestic human rights issues and freedom of religious beliefs, RMB diplomacy, China in South China in South ChinaMdash; mdash; MDASH; MDash; all of which have been widely discussed, especially economically and trade -related issues, especially for the Sino -US trade war in China and the United StatesFrequently involved issues.
Pence's speech did not give more powerful evidence.In this regard, we can think that this is just a concentrated criticism of the US government for China, and it is a clear and open declaration of Sino -US relations ushered in a turning point.As for how the United States will deal with these measures in China, Pence's speech has not given more new plans and measures. The Trump administration will continue to use economic policies as the main measure to solve the national security issues in his mouth.
Therefore, for Pence's speech, we may be able to understand that the Trump administration expects to get a response from China to re -set the tone of Sino -US relations.The reset of this relationship largely depends on China ’s solution to the problem of economic and trade fields mentioned above, including intellectual property rights and market liberalization.
Obviously, this is different from the outside world that Sino -US relations will be separated and the Sino -US economy is completely decoupled.Even though we can't rule out the future of this result, we will largely depend on how China responds to Trump's demands.
At the same time, this means that in fact, the current Sino -US relations are not as bad as the outside world imagined or predicted, and there is still a certain space for Sino -US relations.The two parties in the United States agree that China and the United States will maintain a competitive attitude, but it is difficult to fully agree with the state of hostile and confrontation between China and the United States.
For China, the current lucky point is that Trump still mainly takes the economy as a means. As a fulcrum for the reset of relations between China and the United States, military pressure or political pressure is just the beginning.The so -called new free trade agreement signed by the United States and South Korea, Canada, Mexico and other countries did not leave the scope of the Cross Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) of the Obama administration.
Therefore, China should at least be prepared to deal with a new global trade system in the future.If China can continue to maintain its current status and advantages in the global economic industry chain, Sino -US relations will not be overturned.
After Pence's speech, in addition to the response of diplomatic calibers, what specific response to China will have to be observed further.
The author is Beijing Freelance
