Song Yanhui: There must be a battle in China and the United States in the South China

Author: Song Yanhui

A few days ago, the U.S. Navy's missile destroyer Dicate encountered the 170th ship (Lanzhou missile destroyer) of the mainland China Navy (Lanzhou Missile destroyer) while performing a freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.Change the channel to avoid collision.

Observing the wrestling of the recent China and the United States in the South China Sea, and the policy statement and diplomatic actions issued by the two governments, the possibility of the two strongs in the South China Sea indeed continued to increase.Does the Diccart incident tell us that the predictions of China and the United States in the South China Sea will come true?

In May of this year, the United States canceled China to participate in the Military exercises of the Pacific, because Beijing conducted the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea and military deployment.Washington warns that the invitation is just a step that starts. If China does not stop the South China Navalization, the United States will have more follow -up.

In recent months, the frequency of cruising in the United States in the South China Sea has indeed increased a lot, and it has become closer and closer to the sea airspace of the west and Nansha Reefs in the mainland.The United States challenged the claims of Beijing's relevant sovereignty, sea area and sea power in the name of regular and normal implementation of freedom of navigation.

The United States carried out a joint military exercise in the South China Sea to win the cruise military actions of Beijing, Australia, Britain, France, India and other countries; to draw a military cooperative relationship for ASEAN countries; trying to intervene in negotiations that affect the code of behavior of the South China Sea; Provide military weapons training assistance such as the Philippines and Vietnam; invite important international media to board the US warships or military aircraft to an actual interview with the South China Sea; issue a statement of the official policy stance in the South China Sea, etc., showing that Washington has appeared in strength, frequency, and remarks in China.Strengthen the trend.In August, the US Department of Defense submitted a report on the military and security development of mainland China to Congress, reflecting that Washington's concerns about the adoption of Beijing in the South China Sea in China and the gradual position.

Beijing's application for US warships to suspend Hong Kong's application, the second round of foreign security dialogue, which was originally expected to be held in the middle of this month, suddenly stopped, and the US Minister of Defense announced the cancellation of the mainland itinerary.Does the confrontation incident show that the new normal situation in China and the United States in the South China Sea has changed?The possibility of military conflict between the two sides also increases?

A few years ago, Robcaplan, a well -known US geopolitical experts, published an article entitled "Future Conflicts in the South China Sea" in foreign policy.model.He said that when one party takes action to maintain the status quo, and the other party is to change the status quo, conflicts cannot be avoided.The current China -US wrestling in the South China Sea is exactly the same.

Former White House's chief strategic adviser Bannon also said that there will be World War I in the next 5 to 10 years.As far as the trade war is concerned, this prophecy is true.Does the China -US searches outbreak of military conflicts in the South China Sea?The recent development trend is worrying. It is said that the US Pacific Fleet to multiple regions competes against Chinese military operations

According to the United States Cable TV News Network, an anonymous officials requested that the drafting proposal includes a series of operations in the Pacific Fleet in November to send American warships, combat aircraft and troopsopponent.

The report said that the US Navy's proposal focuses on the Pacific Ocean, which may expand to the west coast of South America, and China is expanding investment and diplomatic relations in that area.If this proposal is approved, the action may even be expanded to a territory near Russia.

For the above reports, the US military refused to comment.India MDASH; Pacific Command spokesman Kafka said: We plan the emergency response operation and different actions, but we do not comment on future actions.A Pacific fleet spokesman also refused to comment.

Broand, the largest political risk consulting company Eurasia Group in Washington, the world's largest political risk consulting company, believes that this plan led by the US Navy is in line with the Chinese Navy Mattis's militaryization in China.The greater consequences.

In an interview with Bloomberg, he said: China will regard the US Navy's large -scale exercises in its territorial sea as a serious provocation, which may lead to further cutting off the army's troops.This may also make China's hardliners determine that the United States is to control China in economics and military, and make it more difficult for the trade dispute between the two parties to be resolved within 2018.

Shortly after the news of US officials revealed the above news, U.S. Vice President Pence scheduled to leak the speech delivered by the Hudson Research Institute in Washington Washington on Thursday, and the content also aimed at China.And retract.

(The author is a researcher at the Institute of the Central Research Institute)