Current affairs perspective
The seven -year Syrian civil war came to the final decisive time.
A plate of Syrian opposition, almost all of the turtles shrank to Idlib, and could not escape the fate of being cleared by the Syrian government forces.Syrian decisive battle, the decisive party was Bashar Middot; the Assad government.In any case, a sovereign country eliminates internal chaos and realizes national reconciliation and domestic peace, it is worthy of being grateful.However, the decisive battle of the Assad government's armed forces in the opposition stimulated the sensitive nerves of the relevant powers.
The United States, the European Union, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Gulf Sunni countries all rolled into the Syrian civil war.During this period, the anti -terrorism entanglement with the Middle East made the Syrian civil war a source of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East.Each faction forces are connected to the vertical, and the strength of the efforts has caused millions of people in Syria to displacement, which has also caused the Islamic State (IS) to spread in trouble.The formation of the Middle East refugees, from the two directions of the Middle East to the EU from two directions, profoundly changed the EU's political ecology, causing internal division of the EU, and a direct reason for Brexit in Brexit.
The trend of refugee has also changed the EU civilization ecology, and terrorism has frequently disturbed, making the right -wing trendy and populist.The cohesion of the European Union is decreasing, and the peaceful and peaceful happy life of the EU people is also shrouded in the haze of terrorist attacks from time to time.
The EU, which supports the Syrian opposition forces, has become a victim of the Syrian civil war.The United States has not occupied any cheap in Syria, and Syria has become a pain point for the Middle East strategy in the United States.
The pain of this strategy has been concluded from the Obama period.Obama's Middle East policy is to withdraw troops to Iraq, sign the Iranian nuclear multilateral agreement, and return to Asia.Obama did it, the Middle East's strategic foundation was shaken, and the United States was alienated to have a relationship with traditional Middle East allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.The spread of the Syrian civil strife and the Iranian organizations of the Middle East is regarded by the overseas Sunni countries and Western allies as by -products for the Middle East withdrawal strategy in the United States.
Obama is not doing nothing in Syria and the Middle East, but the United States is unable to show its strategic strength on multiple fronts around the world.In contrast, in the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, Russia was forced by economic sanctions by Western countries led by the United States, and can only be used in the Syrian civil war and the Middle East anti -terrorism battle.Supporting the Assad administration is a traditional choice for Russia's strategic interests, and it is also the forefront of strategic games led by the United States.Russia's right to win the strategic decision in the Syrian civil war is also the result of the surplus game in Syria, such as the United States, Europe and Russia.
The Middle East strategy in the Trump era changed. This change is to conform to the Republican eagle demand, regain the dominance of the Middle East in the United States, and also related to Trump's diplomatic vision that Trump wants to improve US Russian relations.Putin once hoped that US -Russian relations can be relieved, and thus patience to Trump Air strike Syria.As a result, Tong Russia's investigation has become the shackles that Trump is difficult to break through. It can only escape domestic political pressure through more severe sanctions on Russia and diplomacy.
The U.S. -Russian relations became worse after the Helsinki Tip.Therefore, Putin no longer has any hope for Trump and Russia for the United States.In addition, the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear multilateral agreement, making the US -Europe relations gap.At this time, it was Russia's good opportunity to destroy the Syrian anti -government army in one fell swoop in the province of Idlib.
With the changes in US -Europe relations and the changes in the US and local relations, Russia, Iran, and Turkey have reached basic consensus on the interests of the Syrian war and the post -war parties.As a result, Russia sent a large -scale fighter to bomb the Syrian opposition forces to cooperate with the Syrian government to rebel.Trump sent a tweet to warn the Assad government not to attack Idlib province, and stated that Russia and Iran participated in it would cause humanitarian disasters.
However, there are medium -term elections in trade frictions, and the Trump administration, which is superimposed in the White House, can only send a tweet demonstration.It is worth mentioning that in addition to the Syrian real -knife shot guns to help the Assad government clean the anti -government forces, Russia also holds a large -scale military exercise code -named Eastern 2018 in the Far East.This is also the largest military exercise in Russia so far. China has also been invited to participate in Russia's strategic military exercise for the first time.
One east and one west, one virtual and one real, Russia shows muscles, it is obviously for the United States.How does the United States react?If the United States has a fire in Syria and Russia, a regional war in the Middle East will be inevitable.The United States, Russia, European, and Israel and the entire Middle East cannot be placed out.Trump is afraid that he will not dare to be trapped in such the Middle East War. After all, economic and trade is the focus of its concern, and the midterm elections are even more important.Perhaps it can only be the pioneer of the Syrian civil war by the small partner of Israel.However, it is difficult for Israel to compete with Syria supported by Russia and Iran.
Faced with the decisive victory of the Assad administration in Russia, the United States may swallow the bitter fruit of the Syrian battle.Syria will also become the pain point of the Middle East strategy in the United States, and it will also encounter Iran's more difficult hard bones.
The author is a guest researcher at the Senior Researcher of the China Chahar Society of China
