Zhang Rui: The ＂Plaza Agreement＂ is dead ＂force＂ still exists

Zhang Rui

Since the beginning of this year, Japanese companies have reached 177 mergers and acquisitions in the United States, and the total transaction scale has reached 4.7 trillion yen (about 42 billion US dollars). It is expected to break the historical record before Japan's "lost 20 years".

At the same time that the Tokyo Research Agency, RECOF released the statistical data, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe publicly stated that he had told US President Trump that discussing the exchange rate problem is dangerous.In this regard, people can't help but have Lenovo: Will there be a new "square agreement" between the United States and Japan?Is Abe's third defense in advance?

Although so far in the space distance, the US market always seems to be able to guide Japanese companies with different charm.As early as the early 1980s, Japanese cars, home appliances, and semiconductors made a rush in the US market. Mitsubishi even ate in the Lockefeller Building, which was an equal symbol in the minds of Americans.

But these are just the corner of the volcanic eruption.At that time, Japan also had US $ 280 billion in US direct investment (FDI), as well as US bank assets over $ 320 billion in pockets. At the same time, it also controlled 25%of the new York stock market.At that time, the Tokyo media shouted the slogan "Japan is the world's number one", and all the Japanese citizens also produced the "Japanese era".

No wonder Japan is so bullish.As the largest creditors in the world at that time, Japan's GDP (GDP) reached 5.33 trillion US dollars, close to 70%of the US GDP, which is higher than that of China's current GDP.But on the other end, the United States is suffering from the large -scale exports brought by the strong appreciation of the US dollar, as well as the pain of the squeezing of the high financial deficit in China. Affected by this, the proportion of the United States in the global economy at that time was from the global economy.Fifteen years ago, 40.3%fell to 23.3%in 1984.

Under the sharp pressure of Congress, the Reagan administration bundled the trigger to Japan, which was the source of its largest trade deficit.In addition to Minghuo's dedication to Japan's trade sanctions, the United States also throws out financial killers that are sufficient to make Japan's great injuries.The "Plaza Agreement" signed by the hotel.

The "Plaza Agreement" determines the goal of 10%to 20%of the yen to the US dollar, and the next US dollar does have a rapid weakening trend, and the yen also reaches the upper limit in less than four months.However, beyond everyone's accident, the next three months continued to rise by 17%, and then the Bank of Japan entered the market to intervene quickly, but it did not help. At the same time, the US trade sanctions on Japan did not decrease but increased but increased but increased.The yen is soaring.

In helplessness, Japan launched an extremely loose monetary policy. The price of domestic real estate and financial assets soared sharply, but everything was phantom. The huge bubble quickly ruptured at the end of 1989."Torment.

Statistics show that in just three years after signing, the yen appreciation is close to 90%, and with Japanese companies withdrawn from the US market, Americans have bought the Rockefeller Building.

Nowadays, the trade situation between the United States and Japan has too many knowledge of the relationship between the two countries in the "Square Agreement". In addition to the "buying and buying" in the United States, Japan or the United States is or the United States.A large deficit, and the scale of the $ 68.9 billion of the deficit far exceeded 30 years ago. At the same time, the yen has also depreciated a lot to the US dollar since this year.

And more importantly, the strong dollar is not what Trump likes, and is different from the "square agreement" to sign the President of Genan, which is due to the pressure of Congress to make trade sanctions.Inside it launched a trade war and put on armor to the scene to count the war. In this case, will the United States still make a seduce or forced Japan to sign a new "square agreement"?

Observation found that Trump did be dissatisfied with the trade deficit between Japan and the United States, and also condemned Japan's "playing currency devaluation game" in front of Abe.possible.But this time.

If Trump does not want to stimulate Japan in the field of exchange rates, Japan will not lack the strength and capital that is told with its budding, and in the wrist with Japan, the United States may not be able to win.

According to analysis, for Japan, the US market is not as "so big" as "unable to fall" as much as more than 30 years ago.Statistics show that before signing the "square agreement", the United States is the main export market in Japan, and the proportion of exports accounts for 37.1%of Japan's total export.One of them.

Under the fence, the Japanese government had to agree to the United States' request.

But the time has moved.At present, the scale of goods in Japan and the United States only accounts for 15.1%of its total trade volume. Although the United States is still the largest exporter of goods in Japan, the proportion of exports to the United States is only 19.28%of all Japan's export.Turning up with the United States, there is still a very wide room for Japan, and naturally it will not rashly accept Trump's unreasonable demands.

Indeed, after the "Square Agreement", Japan with scars also began to reflect and review themselves, and on this basisThe diversified international market pattern of effect.

At present, China has become Japan's largest trading partner country. The trade volume of the two countries has reached 3.334 trillion yen.China's export volume reached 1.489 trillion yen, and the export proportion was 19%, which was only 0.2 percentage points from its exports to the United States.

Not only that, Japan and the European Union signed the "Economic Partnership Agreement" that will take effect next year. At present, the total bilateral trade is only $ 15 billion. The agreement will create a huge space for Japan's trade volume to increase trade volume.

In addition, Japan and Asianan reached a free trade agreement, and at the same time participated in the 10 + 3 cooperation mechanism. In addition, Japan and Asia have more than 70 regional interconnection projects.As the Asian market, just like the Chinese market, it will make Japan feel the United States, and it will also be fascinated.In this case, Japan basically does not have to worry about the helplessness and panic after losing the US market. By correspondingly, Trump wants to drink five to Japan on the exchange rate, and Japan will definitely not be uniform.

It is also necessary to emphasize that the "square agreement" more than 30 years ago happened under the situation where the US dollar was indispensable, but now it is difficult for the US dollar to cover the sky again.

In addition to Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and China, they have chosen non -US dollar pricing mechanisms for crude oil futures, and Japan, China, Russia, Turkey and Germany are also constantly reducing U.S. debt.Gradually, the proportion of RMB in the world has risen to 1.4%, and the euro and pounds have increased to 20.39%and 4.68%, respectively.

In addition, although the US dollar is still the largest payment currency in today's global trade, the ratio of the euro has risen to 35.7%, and the proportion of pounds and yen accounted for 7.1%and 2.9%, respectively.It can be seen that the United States can no longer shake the US dollar's financial hegemony tool as much as before, and Japan can also get rid of the intangible control of the United States through the foreign reserve ratio and the non -US dollar of trade settlement, so that it may be with Trump with TrumpPuzhang's exchange rate game occupies the upper hand.

What is noticeable is that in recent years, the single -handed behavior of Japan's "Alliance Lord" has occurred.Trump withdrew from the cross -Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP), and Japan took a high profile and took the lead.P>

Trump threatened to levy 25%of steel and aluminum tariffs, and Japan immediately issued a tone that will levy a total of 45 billion yen against the United States, and this quota is just equivalent to the U.S. taxation amount of Japanese steel and aluminum products; not only not onlySo, just in the United StatesIn addition to the non -US dollar pricing mechanism of crude oil futures, Japan, China, Russia, Turkey, and Germany have also chose to continue to reduce holdings of US debt. At the same time, non -US dollar assets have gradually increased.The proportion of RMB in the world has risen to 1.4%, and the euro and pounds have increased to 20.39%and 4.68%, respectively.

Taking and so on, if Trump wants to move the snacks on the exchange rate, Japan, which has eaten a lot of suffering and has a lot of pain in his heart, will definitely make a strong background, just like the tone of Abe in the beginning of this article.Do not change the same as the fighting spirit.

The author is a director of the Chinese Society of the Chinese Market, a professor of economics at the University of Foreign Trade from Guangdong and a graduate mentor

Time to move.At present, the scale of goods in Japan and the United States only accounts for 15.1%of its total trade volume. Although the United States is still the largest exporter of goods in Japan, the proportion of exports to the United States is only 19.28%of all Japan's export.Turning up with the United States, there is still a very wide room for Japan, and naturally it will not rashly accept Trump's unreasonable demands.