Population dividends were originally a concept of economics, and now they have become a high degree of popularity.People in all aspects have put forward policy suggestions, hoping to increase the birth rate and effectively increase the population. Therefore, the "demographic dividend" is linked to the public opinion that has released the second child policy and the public opinion that calls for the full release of fertility restrictions, which has attracted the attention of many people.
Population dividends first refer to the population that is more conducive to stimulating market consumption. Without many population, it will be difficult for the consumer market to develop.China's economic growth depends on consumption, investment and exports. Now the decision -making layer is increasingly hoping that consumption will become the driving force for economic growth, because exports and investment facing many difficulties, but if the young population is reduced rapidly, consumer growth will become more and moredifficulty.Secondly, the population is also the guarantee of labor. In the middle of the 20th century, China began to have a high population growth in the middle of the 20th century. The labor supply was sufficient and contributed greatly to China's economic growth.If the labor force is getting less and less, it will be difficult to achieve economic growth.Again, due to the decline in birth rate, China has a phenomenon of being wealthy and old, and the aging population increases the difficulty of pension.
For a long time, the decision -making level has seen the rapid growth of the population as a big problem. Therefore, China has adopted the most stringent family planning policy. The aging and low fertility rates are one of the direct consequences of family planning.Now we realize that the population situation has undergone fundamental changes, and the population policy must be adjusted as soon as possible. The concept of "demographic dividend" provides a theoretical basis for the adjustment of the population policy.
But to see, not all of all labor ages are dividends, and not all people can become labor and increase consumption.After 1949, with the end of the annual war, China's population has grown rapidly, but the young population has not become a demographic dividend. Most of the labor force stays inside agriculture and robs limited land resources with elderly farmers.During the difficulty of employment, a large number of urban youths were also decentralized to rural areas to compete for limited resources with farmers.In that background, the relationship between population and resources is very tense, and it is a last resort to restrict population growth.
After the reform and opening up, a large number of young people have brought about demographic dividends. This transformation is based on at least two reasons: First, a vast non -agricultural employment market has been formed after the reform and opening up.With the development of rural industry and a large number of foreign capital, China has generated huge labor demand. A large number of rural population enters the non -agricultural industry and creates a very considerable value.Second, before the reform and opening up, most of the rural areas in China have popularized primary education. Through the most basic elementary education, young labor force can be at least literate, which has the most basic skills to assemble online employment.Without these two factors, the demographic dividend will not be realized.
When people talk about the dividend of the population, more about the population of the population, pay less attention to the quality of the population.If there is a large number of people who enter the labor age, but there is no corresponding job post, or there is a huge gap between the structure of the job and the employment population, then the excess labor may cause some problems. In this case"Negative profit".
For example, some children far away from parents have not been appropriately socialized in the process of growth, not only do not master the necessary skills, but also do not master the norms of social life. Therefore, children of children often become "negative benefits of family and society."For another example, some people spend a lot of money to send their children abroad, but after returning, they cannot meet the needs of the employment market. Compared with their educated expenditures, they cannot be collected. This kind of young people may not be "negative" for society., But for the family, it is indeed "negative".
The Chinese economy has entered a new period, and new requirements have also been put forward on labor. In this context, to maintain and increase the demographic dividend, it is not simply liberalizing the fertility policy, or adopting a policy of encouraging fertility to solve the problem. MoreIt is important to increase education and training so that the population can meet the needs of the labor market.
From the perspective of demographic dividend, of course, the policy of encouraging fertility can be studied, but at the same time, it should also be studied how to solve the education and training issues of young people.If the state wants to use real gold and silver to encourage and reward fertility, it should also be targeted to do a good job of current education.After liberalizing the two -child policy, there is no large number of fertility. There are many reasons, including the change of lifestyle and the change of value concept. HoweverIt may bring "negative profit", the expenditure of cultivating children is higher than obtaining, and the willingness to fertility will naturally decline.
If you improve and strengthen education and training so that the new population can better meet the needs of the employment market and let fertility bring bonus to the family, then the willingness to fertility may increase.If the cost of fertility and raising is reduced, and at the same time, the child's future income expectations are increased, and the family's "demographic dividend" expectations will increase the expectations of the entire society in the entire society.
Therefore, the increase in population is not inevitable to bring the increase in demographic dividends, and encouragement and even direct rewarding fertility also means the improvement of fertility.At present, especially the education and training problems of young people need to be solved in order to increase the fertility willingness of most families and continue to create a demographic dividend.
Source: Beijing Youth Daily NBSP; Wang Xiaoyi
