Zhou Yinggang: The real estate in the process of urbanization is more important than the capital market than the stock market. To make the inflow of labor really live, they must give them the opportunity to share the appreciation of assets in the process of urbanization.

High house prices have always been the focus of the people's most concerned.Recently, under a series of severe regulatory policies, house prices in various places have stabilized. However, what the regulatory level did not expect was that the gourds were scooped up, and the rent receiving house prices rose sharply.

Data from July show that the rents in first -tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc. have increased by 2.4%, 2.1%, and 3.1%month -on -month.The renters of the house Andrdquo; and Andrdquo also Andrdquo "can't afford Andrdquo; deviate from Andrdquo; the house" house is used to live, and the goal of establishing a long -term real estate market for the establishment of the real estate market is drifting away.

Why does Andrdquo; that will then turn into Andrdquo "Can't afford Andrdquo;?

Traditional views believe that rent is the fundamental aspect, and house prices are the discounts of all rent in the future. Therefore, the rent determines house prices rather than house prices instead of driving rent.However, houses have dual attributes of durable consumer goods and investment products, which makes the cross -market relationship between housing prices and rent.Food, food, housing, and transportation are indispensable consumption. The most important of which durable consumption is living. Whether it is buying a house or renting a house, consumers must get maximum effects from it, and together with the consumption of non -durable products, it constitutes the consumer life cycle togetherOptimized option.

Although housing prices and rent are endogenous variables, as an asset in the house, the house is part of the integrated capital market, which is more likely to be affected by external factors. In contrastSegmentation and differentiation are mainly affected by local factors.Big cities usually have a strong centripedal forces, which not only attracts a large number of foreign populations, but also attracts many foreign funds to buy a house. The first affected is house prices.Go to rent.

Recently, rents soaring is caused by multiple factors superimposed. For example, the demolition of illegal buildings and the governance city villages have reduced the supply of rental housing, and the arrival of the starting season, graduation season, and employment season have increased demand.The regulatory policy not only focuses on Andrdquo; but also emphasizes the development of the leasing market, especially long -term leases, but simply controls the law of house prices, so that people who cannot realize the real estate in the real estate have entered the listing of rents, so that house prices have risen without rising house prices.Completed Andrdquo; Completed by rent.

It is reported that the current long -term rental apartments and rental platforms have acquired rental housing in a competitive competitive, and induced tenants and financial institutions to sign rent loans, and use the long -term (one -year) rent payment from financial institutions to pay a part of the short -term (such as three months in three months)) Renting to the landlord, this is actually the function of financial intermediaries. It belongs to the shadow bank that regulates the blind zone, hidden huge financial risks.

Andrdquo; more negative effects than "can't afford to buy Andrdquo;" is much more serious

Under high house prices, people who cannot afford a house will retreat and choose to rent a house. This is equivalent to holding a waiting options, waiting for income to rise or housing prices fall to a certain level before buying a house.Although many people may not wait for the day when they buy a house in the city, at least they get the waiting power for waiting at a lower option price (part of the rent).

However, high housing rents have soared the price of this option. If the rent has risen to the degree of the average salary, it will make those renters who "cannot afford the room andrdquo;The extrusion effect.

The research of the author and collaborators shows that the higher the labor cost of labor in a city, the stronger the willingness to flow out of the city;"Squeeze out Andrdquo; The effect is particularly obvious.

Moreover, high rental housing prices will squeeze out people’s willingness to have fertility. Although the two -child policy has been liberalized, families working in urban are not dare to give birth because of housing burden.Couples living in the first -tier cities in Beishang, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are more likely to give up two children.

In addition, high housing prices can easily lead to asset bubbles, and high -housing rents and high housing prices can easily cause inflation. This is because the rental lease occupies a considerable proportion of the price index.power.At the same time, housing prices are the discounts of all rent in the future. High rent will further drive future housing prices, forming a revenge of house prices after regulation and relaxation.

Finally, the rental loan model hides huge risks Once exposed, the financial chain of the intermediary may break, and the landlord's rent cannot be paid, which will cause systemic financial risks and a series of serious social problems.These possible phenomena are worthy of our attention and further analysis.

How can we establish a long -term mechanism for the real estate market?

The central government clearly needs to accelerate the establishment of a housing system for rent and purchase, and improve the long -term mechanism of promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, which shows that the long -term real estate mechanism has entered the practical level from the theoretical level.However, a series of measures in real estate policies in various places have been converted from speculative housing to speculation, and Andrdquo; and then turned into Andrdquo.It has to be further considered and studied.

To understand China's real estate market, it is necessary to understand the process of urbanization in China. It can be roughly divided into two stages: in the first stage, especially since the reform of the tax system in 1994, the fiscal burden of local governments has increased.The problem.Local governments have gradually developed a set of capital generation models with land as credit, and are urbanized financing through land finance.

At this stage, it is usually called and "land urbanization andrdquo; shortage is capital, and the excess is the labor force. Which city can integrate more capital from the land finance to build infrastructure and develop the industrial economy.And providing public services, this city can win in the competition.

However, urbanization cannot be developed in this way. Land finance in third- and fourth -tier cities can no longer continue. Although the first- and second -tier cities can still sell land, the accumulated capital must be invested in reproduction and obtain real and continuous cash.Otherwise, it will cause soaring house prices and various urban diseases and squeezing the real economy and labor force. The main factor that determines the cash flow is the production and consumption of labor.

Therefore, in the second stage of urbanization, urban competition is labor force rather than capital. The population flow between urban and rural areas allows the population flow between cities.The city will eventually win.

Real estate in the process of urbanization is a more important capital market than the stock market. To make the inflowing labor force really live, they must give them the opportunity to share the appreciation of assets in the process of urbanization. This is a long -term mechanism for real estate.One of the core contents that should be included.If the rental is just Andrdquo; or Andrdquo; or Andrdquo; there is no wealth effect of housing appreciation.

And if it is "rent first, then purchase andrdquo; then it may be done, that is, according to the amount that the residents can afford, the rent will be charged monthly, after a certain period of time (such as ten or fifteen years, in case the arbitrage in the commercial housing market), once at a time, once), once in the commercial housing market), once at a time), once in the commercial housing market), once in the commercial housing market), once in the commercial housing market), once in the commercial housing market arbitrage), once at a time, once), in case the arbitrage in the commercial housing market), once at a time, it is to prevent arbitrage in the commercial housing market).Sexual supplementation, obtaining the wealth of complete property rights sharing housing appreciation. The essence is to capitalize labor and transform it into a real and continuous cash flow (that is, rent).

(Note: This article only represents the author's point of view. The editor of this article Xu Jin [email protected])