See the challenge of the Belt and Road Initiative by Mahathir to stop the Chinese project

Author: Zhao Zhiyang, Luo Jinyi

In the recent trip to China, Malaysia Prime Minister Mahathir announced the cancellation of three large -scale infrastructure investment projects in Malaysia in Malaysia, namely the East Coast Railway (East Railway) and two natural gas pipelines in Sabah and Malacca.Many Chinese -funded money pays for the east.In this regard, Li Keqiang, the leader of the President of the State President and the Premier of the State Council, can only say that Andrdquo; Andrdquo; and the outside world believes that this move has caused a significant blow to the development prospects of "Belt and Road andrdquo; the initiative in Malaysia.

Interestingly, on the one hand, Mahathir canceled Chinese -funded projects, but also expressed its support and willingness to actively participate in the co -construction of Andrdquo; welcomes Chinese companies to invest in Malaysia. How should we understand these seemingly AndrdquoWhat about behavior?In addition to using Andrdquo; and Andrdquo; binary confrontation mode of "pro -Chinese andRDQUO; and Andrdquo; ADRDKUO;?

Two aspects of Malaysia

Malaysia does not fall to China, and its considerations can be divided into two aspects.The first is Andrdquo, "ASEAN Central Andrdquo;: In addition to because Malaysia is one of the founding countries of ASEAN, it is also because the previous government knows that Southeast Asia can only maintain the importance and international status of ASEAN can all countries maintain in Southeast Asia where the powers are viewed by the powers.Autonomous status.

Malaysia is the country with the most close relationship with China and China. Today, although China has replaced Japan in 2008, it has become Malaysia's most important trading partner. China Malaysia announced in 2013 that it was upgraded to Andrdquo;While Malaysia held a tough statement on China on the South China Sea issue during the President of ASEAN in 2015, it shows how important Malaysia consciously in ASEAN.

The second is the geographical strategy of Malaysia.Malaysia is very clear about its strategic value: the dangerous position in the Malacca Strait is located, controlling the entrance of the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, where more than 80,000 ships pass each year, mainly the oil tanker entered the South China Sea, so it is known as the Chinese and "Andrdquo at the maritime lifeline; even though Andrdquo; many projects, such as the "Belt and Road and the Belt and Road andrdquo; many projects, such as the China -Burma Oil and Gas Pipeline, the China -Pakistan Economic Corridor, have tried to solve the" Malacca problem Andrdquo; Andmdash; Andmdash; the Middle East crude oil imported from China can be from the Indian Ocean.Mada Island went ashore, weakened the strategic position of Singapore Andmdash; Andmdash; but China still hopes that the East Railway plan connects the East and West Bank ports in Malaysia to avoid the crisis of the Basis of the Malacca Strait.In order to strive for its own status and interests under the great strategy of "Belt and Road andrdquo; and the great strategy.

Mahathir's explanation is remarkable for the reasons for this project.He alleged that because of the huge government bonds in Malaysia, the government was unable to undertake a project with a total value of more than 20 billion US dollars, not for Chinese companies; it also said that Chinese officials would understand and understand Malaysia.It is a fact that the country's Andrdquo;. Malaysia's government bonds are huge. Due to the lack of capital development, the current national bonds have reached $ 25 billion, accounting for nearly 70 % of the GDP of Malaysia.

Since the "Belt and Road Andrdquo; in 2013, the" Belt and Road ANDRDQUO; in 2013, the Najib administration in Malaysia was the first exponential support among ASEAN countries. AND "Belt and Road Andrdquo; currently there are more than 30 projects in Malaysia, spreading across railways, ports, ports, Industrial Park, Urban Development, Infrastructure Investment and other categories have caused China's total foreign investment in Malaysia to exceed RM140 billion (about 34 billion U.S. dollars), and the total funding for East Railway alone has reached RM80 billion (about 19.5 billion US dollars).Two natural gas pipelines are nearly RM0 billion (about 2.3 billion US dollars). The import and export banks of China will be loaned. The Malaysian government guarantees and is disguised by the Malaysian taxpayers to bear debt and risk.

After Mahathir came to power, it has been stated that reducing national debt burden is the primary goal. In May, it has canceled the construction of Andrdquo, which connects Singapore, and criticized it as an "very stupid plan Andrdquo;.

Political issues brought by government bonds

But what Mahathir cares more about the political issues brought by government bonds: the issue of the Treasury bonds is very deep with the former Najib government and the "One Malaysian scandal Andrdquo;(1MDB, referred to as Andrdquo;) is an official strategy investment company established by former Prime Minister Najib when he came to power in 2009.. However, due to unknown supervision and lack of accountability, it has long been affected by bad political and business relationships and has become the source of corruption.

Mahathir has disclosed the inside story of the company since the Najib, which he supported him in 2015. Andrdquo, "One Malaysia Company scandal; from then on, it is out of control.Najib, who was scandal, actively beckoned to the Beijing government and Chinese funds. When Najib visited China in 2016, he agreed to promote 14 large -scale plans in Malaysia, including the East Rail Program.

In other words, the Najib administration has linked national assets with economic security to personal political future. China's "Belt and Road andrdquo; Belt and Road Andrdquo; capital assistance to Andrdquo;It is more involved in its corruption scandal.Mahathir has played with a new image. When she campaigns, she has to review the Chinese investment project. Of course, it is necessary to draw the line with the previous scandal. Especially now Najib is facing the interrogation of "one horse company Andrdquo; corruption, and cancel a few of them.The most criticized Chinese -funded project, the political purpose is clearly distinguished.

Political hedging strategies of various countries

And "Belt and Road and Andrdquo; large -scale investment in Malaysia suffered in Malaysia. Whether Beijing was unexpectedly did not know, but it is unknown, but why is these complicated political and economic motivations?Why do countries have not used these factors to implement political hedging strategies, and China has no choice but to do helplessness?On the first day of Mahathir's victory, he showed that he supported Andrdquo; but when he visited China, he announced the cancellation of the project and successfully obtained a large number of international media reports.During the trip, I deliberately set up a journey from Hangzhou to Shanghai to Shanghai, and then flew to Beijing.

You may not be unfamiliar with these examples.Pakistan is another "Belt and Road Andrdquo; ANDRDQUO; Town, and is also exported to the China -Pakistan Economic Corridor. Recently, when the Sino -US trade war, Pakistan has demanded borrowing loans, otherwise it will interrupt the" Belt and Road andrdquo;But the fact is that Pakistan was rated as a debt crisis by the think tank as a debt crisis.Whether to change your attitude towards Andrdquo;

Sri Lanka, who is entangled with debt issues, accepts China ’s Gaoli loan to build an international airport. Although it can accommodate 1 million people per year, only a few people are currently serving, but it is enough to make the Sri Lanka government transfer the ownership of Hantotot to ChinaDebt, accused of selling national assets and sovereignty, has also formed China to bear the huge national image negative assets.At the end of July, Laos hydropower dams collapsed. Vientiane immediately announced the suspension and reviewing all dam construction projects and stopped reviewing new investment projects.The largest investor and builder, there is no case.

Will the repayment capabilities of these countries be stronger than Malaysia?Facing Andrdquo, the "Belt and Road Initiative, the Belt and Road;I don't feel strange.Pakistan is another "Belt and Road Andrdquo; ANDRDQUO; Town, and is also exported to the China -Pakistan Economic Corridor. Recently, when the Sino -US trade war, Pakistan has demanded borrowing loans, otherwise it will interrupt the" Belt and Road andrdquo;But the fact is that Pakistan was rated as a debt crisis by the think tank as a debt crisis.Whether to change your attitude towards Andrdquo;

Will the repayment capabilities of these countries be stronger than Malaysia?Faced with Andrdquo, the "Belt and Road Initiament, the Belt and Road Initiative; can China be able to accept the unique existing and potential problems of the unique existing and potential problems along the line?

Reference materials: Editor -in -chief of Luo Jinyi and Zhao Zhiyang (2018), "relaxation of the field of the Belt and Road: difficulties and tests", Hong Kong: China Book Company

Author Zhao Zhiyang is an assistant editor of the "Journal of Hong Kong Social Sciences" of Hong Kong University of Education.