Li Yincai
Under the strong financial offensive of the United States, Turkish currency was tragically ravaged, and the lira plummeted like a cliff, with a maximum decline of a single day of nearly 20%.After the financial system has been released, the emerging economy, which has grown over more than ten years, has faced an unprecedented crisis of financial market collapse, high debt, and unprecedented social turbulence.
Using the strong position of the US dollar and the structural power of financial hegemony, it is naked to attack a sovereign country, disturbing or even disrupting its financial system. I am afraid that it will not be able to reflect the bullying domineering of the United States than this behavior.Turkey is the latest victim of the Trump administration's economic war, but not the only one.
Since August this year, especially since August, the Trump administration has frequently raised economic sticks to impose economic sanctions on Iran, Turkey, Russia and other countries.High -pressure means forced the other party to make concessions and achieve their own personal interests.
Economic swing waves are not only hit by the country, but also a serious threat to the global economy that is crawling and recovering.The International Monetary Fund warned before that the unscrupulous trade war in the United States could lead to a slowdown in the global economic growth by 0.5%by 2020, with a loss of up to 430 billion US dollars.
The slowdown in economic growth has a huge impact on non -developed economies such as Africa, Latin America.These countries are in an extremely marginal attachment, the market is thin and economic fragile. It relies on output resources to drive economic growth and depended on the external dependence.The vicious competition between major economies and the deterioration of the overall external environment will interrupt the economic development of these countries.In the past ten years, the growth momentum of the global economy has mainly come from developing countries. The development momentum of emerging economies and underdeveloped economies is reversed, which will inevitably weaken the global economy's recovery momentum.
Under the strong offensive and interest rate hikes of the dollar, the vulnerability of the global financial system is exposed.Since the end of World War II, the US dollar has been in an absolute dominant position in the global financial system. The daily transaction volume of the global foreign exchange market is more than $ 50 trillion, and nearly 90%involve the US dollar.This unquestionable hegemony position has become a punitive weapon that the Trump government can use arbitrarily.However, the sensitivity and fragility of the financial system can easily transmit crisis and evolve into a systematic financial crisis.
Recently, not only the Turkish lira has plummeted, but the currency in emerging markets such as South Africa, India, Argentina, and Russia has also undergone significant depreciation.This year's continuous interest rate hikes have led to the forcibly extraction of US dollar foreign exchange in these economies. The shortage of foreign exchange in Africa and many countries in Latin America has more affected its industrialization process. The significant fluctuations in markets and confidence have caused the economic achievements accumulated in some countries for several years.once.
The huge economy of economy and the dominant position of the US dollar require the United States to be responsible for hegemonic countries. If such a country only considers its own selfishness, and even take the use of hegemony to fight retaliation, the destruction of the system is bound to be unimaginable.
Unfortunately, the Trump administration took the banner of "U.S. priority Andrdquo; the United States, and did not consider the stability of the system and the moral responsibility of the hegemonic country.The Democracy Lighthouse in the United States is dull, and Andrdquo; "U.S. priority andrdquo; for irresponsible populism.
For the Trump administration, as long as the United States can maintain the economic upward trend during his term, as long as the US economic leading position can be further strengthened, such a policy is feasible.Although the current economic system has been established and maintained by Americans since World War II, if it cannot be ensured that its own income cannot be maximized, there is no need to continue to continue.
On the contrary, relying on the current strong position, reconstructing the global economy, finance and trade pattern, and creating new rules and new systems that are more in line with the United States, it is probably the time.Whether it is Europe or a distant Africa, the next step towards the global economy is a priority target for the White House decision makers. The only thing they need to consider is how the United States can maintain its advantages and independence in chaotic competition.
For other countries, a selfish and prosperous United States, who wants to take advantage of the chaos, is undoubtedly disastrous. When the old crisis has not been eliminated and the new crisis has emerged, countries need to be more firm and determined.Response and fight against the domineering country.
Author works at the Institute of International Issues of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences
