In the first half of this year, the deleveraging policy was in full swing, and recently, the Andrdquo of "No repayment of the renewal of the renewal of the renewal of Andrdquo;And the policy rolled sharply to maintain stability and relax.
Thinking back one year ago, China's decision -making level was still worried about domestic real estate bubbles and the risk of economic overheating, and adopted severe deleveraging and strong regulatory measures. At the moment a year later, worries have been replaced by the risk of economic downside and external trade war.The policy tone has also become Andrdquo; that is, emphasizing Andrdquo;
So, how to achieve "Six Stability andrdquo;? At the end of July, the Central Political Bureau meeting proposed that the shortcomings were used as the key task of current deepening supply -side structural reforms, and the intensity of the shortcomings in the infrastructure field can be seen.It has been regarded as the top priority. Although the continuous decline in the growth rate of infrastructure is helpful for stable investment, if a wave of infrastructure is settled again, it is not a good recipe, not only can it further increase the burden on government debt and let the early period go to the early stageThe hard work of leverage and strengthening fiscal constraints may also be frustrated, or the marginal benefits may become smaller and difficult to achieve the expected results.
The author believes that increasing infrastructure is not as good as a significant large tax reduction.Considering that the current tax burden on Chinese enterprises and residents, the growth rate of fiscal revenue is higher than that of the nominal growth of GDP, and the weak growth of residents' income growth, so as to reduce taxes to help funds from flowing into residents and enterprises., Enhance the re -investment capabilities of enterprises, promote the growth of consumption and effective investment.Furthermore, as an important part of the structural reform of the supply -side structural reform, tax reform is not a short -term policy stimulus. It is a more long -term mechanism change, which helps to release the reform dividends for China's economy and help China get out of the economic cycle to become shorter and shorter.The strange circle.
Andrdquo; the dilemma behind
On July 31st, the Politburo meeting proposed and the goal of "six stability andrdquo; in the author's opinion, which actually reflects the current decision -making layer's two unstable concerns about the current Chinese economy.
The first is employment. With the decline in the Chinese economy and the continuation of deleveraging policies, the current domestic consumption and investment have fallen significantly. Many enterprises, especially small and medium -sized private enterprises, have difficulty in operating.At the same time, considering that the Sino -US trade war may evolve into a long -lasting war, foreign trade companies are also facing obvious survival pressure. Stable employment has become Andrdquo;
The second is the financial market. In the first half of the year, the Chinese bond market has frequently defaults, and the P2P running incident has increasingly increased, increasing the risk of the financial market.For example, in the first half of this year, a total of 25.3 billion yuan of bonds in the bond market broke the contract, involving 25 bonds; at the same time, the P2P platform has been rapidly reduced, and the breach of contract has risen. According to statistics, as of the end of June, there were 6,183 P2P platforms in China.Among them, 4,347 platforms were closed and problematic, accounting for 70 %.
The third is that the prospect of trade is not optimistic.Although trade data in July exceeded expectations and did not reflect the impact of the trade war, in my opinion, the main reason was that the trade order in July was mainly signed a few months ago, and the renminbi depreciation in the early period was hedged.Considering the collective decline of PMI in July and the continuous increase in Sino -US tariffs, China's export situation will still face great challenges in the future.
Fourth, in terms of foreign capital, the current depreciation of the renminbi and capital outflow are also under pressure.Since June, the renminbi has depreciated from 6.4 to 6.9. The current exchange rate has depreciated by 10%from the annual high. It is even worried that the renminbi may break 7 and accelerate capital outflow.It can be seen that the central bank has raised foreign exchange risk reserve from 0%to 20%, showing that the central bank's concerns about the depreciation of the exchange rate.At the same time, domestic is accelerating the opening of the domestic financial market to promote the two -way flow of funds and reduce the risk of large -scale unidirectional flow of funds.
Fifth, in terms of investment. In the context of the enhancement of deleveraging policies and fiscal constraints since this year, fixed asset investment has fallen significantly. Among them, infrastructure investment is mainly dragging down. In JuneInvestment has rebounded slightly.Although real estate investment is close to double-digit growth, the cumulative growth rate of the total growth rate from January to June is 9.7%, but it is mainly related to the rapid growth of land purchase during the same period. The growth rate of land purchase in the first half of the year was as high as 7.2%.With the continuous policy of real estate regulation in the second half of the year, real estate investment is expected to face a callback.
Sixth, in terms of expectations, in the context of increasing internal and external risks, the domestic capital market has obviously turbulent August 7, August 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2700 points again, hovering at the lowest level in the past two years, approaching the lowest after the stock disaster in 2015-16 years.Point 2638 points reflect the current situation of unstable market confidence.Of course, compared with domestic investors, there is no pessimistic domestic investor at present. It is believed that A shares have been overwhelmed and have begun to deploy A shares.
Infrastructure is not a good recipe
To deal with the six major concerns, the decision -making level also released obvious policy adjustment signals at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For example, emphasizing more active fiscal policies, and "put the general gate of Andrdquo;The intensity of shortcomings and so on. Immediately, infrastructure investment has accelerated significantly, such as recovery growth in the growth rate of China's railway investment, and acceleration of local special bond issuance. It is expected that with policy support, China's infrastructure investment will rebound significantly in the second half of the year.
Although stable infrastructure plays a key role in changing the continuous downward situation of investment, and can to a certain extent the effect of policy support, the greater the stronger strength, the better relying on the short -term growth rebound brought by infrastructure investment. In the long run, existence existsThe following disadvantages:
The first is to exacerbate debt risk.Since 2017, China's policy level has been committed to implementing deleveraging and resolving major financial risks. At the same time, with the enhancement of local government debt constraints, such as strengthening official debt liability system, standardized financing platforms, guidance funds, and various industriesFund's local government funds are constrained, and the situation where local government debt has grown too fast in the early stage has been curbed.
For example, due to debt concerns, the infrastructure investment of multiple provinces and cities at the beginning of the year has been suspended. The Baotou subway project is one of them. At that time, the project was estimated to involve 30 billion funds. After Baotou's financial squeezing moisture, the fiscal revenue in 2017 has shrunk.Half to 13.8 billion, the investment in the subway alone is several times the fiscal revenue of the same period.It can be imagined that once the future is fast -drying of infrastructure investment, it may once again inspire government departments at all levels to make large investment competitions to increase debt risk.
Second, the marginal benefits of infrastructure on the economy decreased.Over the past ten years, the investment in infrastructure has increased rapidly by more than 20%, and the current infrastructure stock in China is not low.In 2017, China's fixed assets investment reached 6 trillion yuan, accounting for 76%of GDP, while infrastructure investment was 14 trillion, accounting for 17%of GDP. In addition, Chinese building products consumed the world's first.1.7 billion tons, of which China's output is 831.7 billion tons, which is equivalent to the sum of other countries.
In my opinion, after years of high -speed development, China's current economic benefits of investment projects have been basically completed, and the economic benefits brought by infrastructure investment in the future will gradually decrease.For example, Oxford University researcher Attif to Andbull; ATIF Ansar pointed out in the "Oxford Economic Policy Review" paper that more than half of infrastructure investment projects of China "destroyed instead of Andrdquo; because of cost ratio benefitsMore.
From this perspective analysis, just because of steady growth, it exceeds the established arrangements and accelerate the promotion of infrastructure projects, and repeated construction and structural supply of excess supply may occur.
Third, exacerbate Andrdquo; since 2008, China has emerged in China since 2008. In the author's view, this is related to the large -scale economic stimulus plan launched at the time.Enterprises are often budget soft -constrained enterprises, and many are facing high leverage issues. Will the new round of investment stimulating will have a crowding effect on civil investment? Exterior the inequality of state -owned enterprises and private enterprises? If so, in the long run, in the long run,, Will weaken the vitality of China's economic growth.
In my opinion, after years of high -speed development, China's current economic benefits of investment projects have been basically completed, and the economic benefits brought by infrastructure investment in the future will gradually decrease.For example, Oxford University researcher Attif to Andbull; ATIF Ansar pointed out in the "Oxford Economic Policy Review" paper that more than half of infrastructure investment projects of China "destroyed instead of Andrdquo; because of cost ratio benefitsMore.
From this perspective analysis, just because of steady growth, it exceeds the established arrangements and accelerate the promotion of infrastructure projects, and repeated construction and structural supply of excess supply may occur.
Third, exacerbate Andrdquo; since 2008, China has emerged in China since 2008. In the author's view, this is related to the large -scale economic stimulus plan launched at the time.Enterprises are often budget soft -constrained enterprises, and many are facing high leverage issues. Will the new round of investment stimulating will have a crowding effect on civil investment? Exterior the inequality of state -owned enterprises and private enterprises? If so, in the long run, in the long run,, Will weaken the vitality of China's economic growth.
The tax reduction is still rich in the people, it is imperative
In my opinion, it is more effective than infrastructure to reduce tax reduction, which is mainly due to the following aspects.
First of all, China's tax cuts are still large.At present, the level of China's macro tax burden is among the best global scope. According to the "Tax Pay7" report released by the World Bank Union Pwai's Accounting Firm, among more than 190 economies around the world, China is 68%.The tax burden ranked 12th, far exceeding the world's average 40.6%total tax rate level, not only higher than the level of tax burden in the United States and Japan. The two were 43.8%and 47.4%, or even more than 55.3%of India.
In addition, the growth of taxation in recent years has also provided conditions for tax cuts.For example, in 2017, China's individual taxes increased by 72 billion more than the budget, indicating that there was a large room for tax reduction in individual tax reform.In the first half of this year, the nominal growth rate of China's GDP was 10%, but the growth rate of each major tax was also significantly higher than the growth rate of GDP.
For example, the tax revenue increased by 14.4%in the first half of the year, of which the domestic value -added tax increased by 16.6%year -on -year, and the corporate income tax increased by 12.8%. The corporate tax burden was still growing rapidly, and the burden was heavier, which was not conducive to the increase of investment in enterprises. Personal income tax increased by 20.3%year -on -year.At the moment when residents' income continues to decline, the rapid growth of taxes will also have a negative impact on residential consumption.
Secondly, the effect of tax cutting will also be more significant for expanding domestic demand.As the Politburo meeting emphasized that expanding domestic demand has become an important way to deal with external risks. In my opinion, tax cutting is very direct for expanding domestic demand.For example, in terms of residents, if the tax reform can be promoted, that is, on the one hand, by increasing the taxation point and reducing the tax rate of individual taxes, the tax base can be reduced. On the one handDeducting will help increase the disposable income of residents and support consumption improvement.
From the perspective of the enterprise level, since the business reform increase, many enterprises have increased the actual tax burden due to the stricter of tax collection and management and incomplete deduction chain.In addition, and "Five insurances and one gold andrdquo; over -high, the cost of capital under deleveraging, and the continuous improvement of environmental protection, further increased the difficulty of the enterprise.
For example, taking the monthly salary of 10,000 monthly monthly taxes in Beijing as an example, the cost that the company needs to bear additional "five insurances and one gold andrdquo; cost is 4410 yuan, the workers deduct the tax and social security payment of 2,543 yuan, and the cost that the workers and the enterprise jointly bear togetherIt is close to 8,000, and the tax burden is too high. The real economy can only improve the operating environment and increase investment.
Furthermore, tax cuts meet the needs of the current strategic transformation of trade.In the past, China's trade strategy was often encouraged to export, but with China's consumption upgrade, Chinese residents' demand for overseas high -end goods has further increased. China is shifting from excessive exports to import and export.However, the current situation facing China is that although the import tariffs are not high, the comprehensive tax burden on the import of value -added tax and consumption tax is still heavier.It is more than twice the price of the shore. From the perspective of encouraging imports, tax cuts also have room for space.
Finally, tax cuts are the further improvement of the fiscal and taxation system, and it is an important part of reform that enters the deep water area.In my opinion, the current economic cycle of China is becoming shorter and shorter, and most of the macro policies adopted in recent years are inseparable from short -term and administrative characteristics.Through tax cuts, the effect is more long -term for the dilemma faced by the Chinese economy.
In fact, as early as the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the speed -up reform of fiscal and taxation has become a consensus. HoweverThe effect is not obvious.Therefore, the author believes that if the Chinese economy wants to get out of Andrdquo; to speed up the construction of long -term mechanisms, tax cuts and people are still rich, it is imperative.
