Industrial and Commercial Society
The devaluation of the dramaticization of Turkish lira nearly collapsed has caused media reports that Turkey will explode a chain new country's financial turmoil, which seems to be overwhelming.However, if you carefully observe the response of the emerging national stock market and the foreign exchange market, it is found that there is no obvious correlation between each other.After that, an unexpected turning point will occur.
On August 10, Turkish li La once regretted 22 %, and the depreciation of the closing of the market converged to 15 %, but the next trading day continued to lose weight.Such a currency depreciation is a catastrophic collapse with a very low probability. Turkey, which is highly built in foreign debt, can no longer pay debt. It is about to enter Greece's back dust. A large number of national assets are sold to foreign creditors at low prices.After the currency derogatory, the ancient country may be reduced to the economic colony divided by the powers, and the prospects will be desolate.
However, the depreciation of the currency is nothing new for Turkish nationals, enterprises, and even governments. Turkey has burst into economic collapse around 2000, and finally relying on the international currency fund (IMF) gold aidA wave of economic collapse and soaring inflation eventually led to Turkey's currency reform. In January 2005, the old Turkish currency was replaced with the proportion of "one million to and one Andrdquo;
However, the currency value of the New Turkish lira has only maintained three years of stability. After 2008, the Snighting Licha was once again embarked on a devaluation path. Before the financial tsunami, the exchange rate of the Turkish lira exchange in the US dollar was around 1.20. In the past ten, ten past tenIn the year, Turkish citizens often took laughed Liculi in Andrdquo; from the exchange rate of 1.2, depreciated to 2, 3, and 4. After July last year, the trend of the sky cannon challenged 4, 5, 6, and the latest August 13th 13th.The day's transaction has exceeded 7 miles to $ 1.
The currency value of Turkey's currency is closely related to the government of Alda'an. Erdogan became the Prime Minister in the election in 2003, leading Turkey to get out of the mud of economic collapse and become a 15 -year -long authoritarian leader in Turkey, but Ai AiThe authoritarian rule of Idoan did not lead the Turkish economic structure to flip. Instead, the land and resources of Wufu Minfeng gradually leaned to foreign banks in exchange for cash.After the lira drama was degraded to the level of $ 1 to exchange 7 miles, Turkey, which bears a $ 150 billion foreign debt, has actually no ability to repay debt, and the Alcetic regime will also enter the countdown.
However, just as Venezuela's economic collapse, it did not cause ripple effects in South America or other countries; although Argentina and Brazil have also derogated, the two adjacent South American powers have different causes, and they are also from Turkey.Unrelated.Argentine President Mauricio Macri embraced the free economy, received the support of the IMF and President Trump, and used high interest rates to absorb international funds to meet the needs of economic structure adjustment.Brazil is about to enter the election at the end of the year. After President Lulan stepped down, it is undergoing violent political wrestling, including the most critical state -owned oil companies, all of which have become the meat of political struggles.
The international media will fall into Venezuela, Turkey, Argentina and other countries that are in economic difficulties to compile the so -called Vitamin index, implying that these countries will detonate a new wave of financial storms.Weak, but each have their own lesions, not to mention the big differences between Iran, Iraq, Indonesia, Tunisia and other countries, which are very different from the appearance or substance.Economic impact.
Moreover, it is deliberately ignored by the international media that although Argentina and Turkey have derogated, the stock market has not collapsed. The Argentine Merval Index has only fallen by 10 % since the beginning of the year, and it has increased by 27 % compared with last August; Turkey's stock price; Turkey's stock priceIndex NATION-100 has fallen 16 % in the past six months, and only fell 12 % compared with last year. State-owned Turkish Airlines has already dispersed because of its income.It has doubled.
In the noisy financial market, speculators never forget to make profit opportunities by the media. This year, the European and American stock markets are high -end. The operation is not easy. Instead, the currency of the emerging market countries will become a market consensus.81 % profit.At the beginning of the year, the Argentine pesos made a profit of 57 %; the Russian rubles were emptied, 16.7 % were earned, and Bar Brazil was emptied, and 17.7 % was earned.Although the amount of trading of these currencies is not large, the violent depreciation is also a small supplement to market speculators.
Although the fried hands use Vitamin and other terms to create the theme of the comprehensive storm of emerging markets, Asian currencies are still quite stable. For example, Andrdquo; NT $, Thai baht, and Malaysian dollars only degrade the appreciation of last year.The weak team Andrdquo; Paido, Korean won, and the Indonesian shield, the profit space is only about 7 %. Of course, Asia has the pressure of hot money, but it will be affected by Turkey.
