Zheng Yongnian: How to understand the essence of Trump's trade war in China?

Zheng Yongnian column

From the beginning of the year to the present, the Sino -US trade war seems to be upgraded all the way, and almost no one knows how the trade war will continue and how to end.What is even more troublesome is that people still do not know what Trump is doing.The mainstream media still focuses on Trump's personality, words and styles. Analysis and reporting, although it has great entertainment, lacks a deep thinking.In fact, from the perspective of behavior, whether people like or not, Trump has a high degree of consistency.

From the beginning of the presidential election to the present, Trump has been doing what he wants to do with perseverance, some things have succeeded, and some things have been frustrated.But anyway, Trump is an actionist, which is very different from the previous US president.This is mainly a distinction between politicians and businessmen. Political figures pay attention to language, and businessmen value effective results.The U.S. political system has not yet adapted to Trump, but the views of ordinary American society (especially white), business and military circles are different. These groups have a higher degree of recognition of Trump.

Chinese parties' awareness of Trump's popularization of its government, which is also largely influenced by the American -made factions.This situation is due to several factors of Chinese cognition.For example, in the United States' institutionalist controlled Volkswagen Media and basically did not have any positive views on Trump, the hostility between Trump and the media has never been interrupted.For another example, the most exposed to China's reform and opening up is the political institutionalist and business circles that have business with China, and they have little understanding of Trump himself and its power behind it.These all prevent people's understanding of the trade war.

How to understand Trump's China policy?Here we must first assume that the United States is selfish.In the thinking of Americans, Andrdquo; the premise of "rational andrdquo; rational andrdquo; and" selfish andrdquo; to maximize its own interests.Status avoids the challenges of any rise in the rise. This is the "Xiuciid trap andrdquo; and the" Xiuci Dande trap andrdquo;

In fact, when China is thinking about how to avoid the trap of Xianxede, the United States is also thinking about the same problem.Compared with China, this trap is more important for the United States.The reason is simple. The United States is a big country, while China is considered a challenger.Compared with Chinese people, Americans believe the existence and possibility of this trap.

Sino -US elite cognition is different

As for whether China and the United States will fall into the trap of Xunxione, China's elite class does not have any consensus.The calm people see the distance between the two countries, while some people have no confidence in China itself.In contrast, the American elite class has formed a high degree of consensus on the United States.This is why the current power in the United States has almost formed the reason why the "united front andrdquo; and the reason for the Chinese issue.

It is not difficult for people to find that although the various policies of Trump's parties have a strong criticism, they only have high support for Trump's policies to China, and some even think that it is not tough enough.

So, as far as the United States is concerned, how to avoid challenges from China to maintain the US hegemony?Here mainly involve policies in China in several areas of politics, military, and economy.Politically, the consistent policy of the United States is the "peaceful evolution of Andrdquo;. For China, the United States cannot directly intervene in China, as for China, and does not treat Germany and as much as a small country.History like Japan and "Opportunity Andrdquo; therefore, it can only be hoped to change inside.

At the beginning of the reform and opening up in the 1980s, the United States had high expectations for China, hoping that China would evolve into Western -style democracy one day.It is this high expectation that the United States and the West have made the most severe response to the Tiananmen incident in 1989.

After that, Deng Xiaoping's Andrdquo; resolved this prematurely coming Chinese and Western confrontation crisis. China has seen another expectation through its own large -scale, large economic openness, and integration with the world.. Clinton seems to be a Marxist. After he believes in economic changes, politics will definitely change. This cognition has led to the United States accepting China to enter the world trade organization.

All US presidents before Trump have considered the economy and politics together. Therefore, although trade issues have already occurred, they do not want to solve the trade problem and "independent andrdquo;, I want to use trade associations to change China's politics.

What is the military aspect?The U.S. military has never stopped preaching China's military threat theory.It is not difficult to understand that any army needs an and "enemy Andrdquo;, especially a powerful and" enemy Andrdquo;.There is no future without Andrdquo; after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, China has naturally become an Andrdquo; in the concept of the US military.

There are also many factors here.First, the military is vested interests.The US military group is a huge interest group that can release huge political energy.Second, the acceleration of Chinese military modernization.With China's economic modernization, military modernization has also become inevitable.Third, the United States misunderstood China's military modernization.China's military modernization is defensive, and does not have foreign military expansion like Western countries (including the United States itself).

But recently the United States has interpreted China's South China Sea policy and Andrdquo; interpreted as China's Andrdquo; Andrdquo; such as "new imperialism andrdquo; and" new imperialism; and "new expansionist Andrdquo;Pay his own experience above China.

However, the United States' concerns about China's military modernization is mainly not how much China will pose on its homeland, but to worry that China will challenge its influence on overseas, especially the Asia -Pacific region.In addition, the United States believes that China will pose a threat to its allies.Although there is a possibility of small -scale conflicts between China and the United States, such as in Taiwan or the South China Sea, because both countries are large -scale countries, large -scale conflicts and war between the two countries are not likely.

That is to say, the expectations of the United States for the evolution of China's politics have not been realized, and the way of impacting politics in the economy has also ended.Not only that, after Andrdquo; as a means, China has not evolved into the West as Andrdquo; but it has become the "national capitalist Andrdquo; <" in the eyes of the West.

Furthermore, there is no possibility to use military means to change China.what to do?This has led to a comprehensive assessment of Sino -US relations in all aspects of the United States. The result of the evaluation is that at the end of last year, China was defined as the main Andrdquo;. Although the United States tied China and Russia, Russia was not the former Soviet Union in the United States.At best, the "troublemaker Andrdquo; and in the eyes of Americans's eyes, mainly manifested in the areas of Ukraine, the Middle East, intervention in the United States.From the perspective of Americans, these are very troublesome, but they do not pose a fatal threat to the United States.

Therefore, the rest is how to deal with China.Even Dr. Kissinger's legend should apply its "Lianzhong Anti -Soviet ANDRDQUO; to China, that is, Andrdquo;" United Russia Anti -China ANDRDQUO;.News about this aspect has been circulated after Trump was elected, and it is now circulating. Its background is not difficult to understand.

Trump will turn the goal to the economy

Among the many US thinking against China, Trump's thinking is more realistic.Politically, Trump gave up his previous approach and realized that the United States could not change China's politics.Therefore, in the relationship with China, ideas, values, and democratic freedom are placed aside.

In military, Trump also gave up his previous method.Although the United States will continue to use its military power to small countries, military power is no longer possible to be conquered by the United States and Russia.Under such cognition, TrumpThe result of the assessment was that the end of last year, the main Andrdquo;. Although the United States tied China and Russia, Russia was not the former Soviet Union.It is mainly manifested in Ukraine, the Middle East, intervention in the United States, and other fields.From the perspective of Americans, these are very troublesome, but they do not pose a fatal threat to the United States.

Trump will turn the goal to the economy

In other words, Trump has abandoned the international order based on the previous power, and also abandoned the international order based on ideology, and wants to build an international order above interest. The most important feature of this order isNaked economic competition between the country.

Under this thinking, Trump found the advantage of the United States.Although Trump's slogan is Andrdquo; the most important principle of its foreign policy is Andrdquo;Indeed, the United States has the advantages that other countries do not have in any other country, including markets, technology, innovation capabilities, US dollars, and so on.These factors make the United States at the top of the entire world economic system, that is, economic hegemony.

Compared with any other factors, whether it is military or politics, these economic factors are actually more important, because it is these factors that other countries and the United States and the United States "associated Andrdquo; together, also allowed Trump to intimidate politics.In Trump's view, and "I am the first, you depend on me, you need me; I can intimidate you because you can't without my Andrdquo;.It is the same idea for the European Union, Canada, Mexico, etc.It is also because of the economic connection between these countries and the United States, they dare not directly confront the United States.

Even more for China. Since the trade war, Trump has repeatedly explained this logic.For Trump, Andrdquo, the United States, only achieves an effective means of "U.S. priority to Andrdquo; U.S. priority.

From the perspective of Trump, it is not wrong to judge China.As a businessman, Trump clearly felt the pressure of the Chinese market to the United States.China's advantage in the United States itself is neither military, not politically, but in the economic field.As mentioned above, even if China's politics and military impact on some countries will have a great impact on the United States itself.The economic field is different.

Once China becomes a huge consumer market like the United States, it will naturally form an economic circle centered on China, and such an economic circle will have a substantial impact on the United States.Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the essence of this trade war is Andrdquo; this, which can at least slow down or terminate China's economic development.

If this issue has been discussed in recent years, and the "secondary income trap andRDQUO; and Andrdquo; and" Xiu Catalded trap andRDQUO;; It is the most effective way to avoid "Xiu Xidde trap andrdquo; because Andrdquo," and "middle -income traps andrdquo; means that China will not have the strength to challenge the US hegemony.

Regardless of Trump's intention, the trade war inevitably harmed and damaged the entire world trade system. This is certain.The United States is actually the main creator and maintenanceer of this system, and has long obtained the greatest benefit from this system for a long time.The problems in the United States are internal, mainly manifested in the benefits obtained from this system that cannot be distributed reasonably and fairly internally, leading to a high degree of differentiation of society.

Furthermore, the United States has also seen other countries, especially China, to benefit from this system, and the benefits of the United States are not as good as before, so they want to change.From the perspective of interest distribution, this behavior of the United States is not difficult to understand.The question is, what is the new system?How can it be established?

Although the United States can lead the West (Europe and Japan) to reconstruct the system, this is not only a problem of institutional reconstruction, but the problem of re -distribution of interests.It is foreseeable, and not to mention the majority of developing countries, that is, in the West, system reconstruction will also be a complex process.

It should be pointed out that from the perspective of changes in international order, many aspects of development often do not change human will.The changes in Sino -US relations are changes in the international order level, not the change of bilateral relations.The trade war is only one of the expression forms developed at this stage, but it is just expressed in Trump's "form andrdquo; there is no Trump, and it will inevitably be expressed in other ways.

With the development of the Sino -US trade war, future Sino -US relations have largely determined the international order in the future.What form will the future international order be expressed?This is another major issue that needs to be explored.

The author is the director of the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore's State University of East Asia.

Zheng Yongnian: How to understand the essence of Trumps trade war in China?

Sino -US elite cognition is different

Trump will turn the goal to the economy

Trump will turn the goal to the economy