Bao Chunliang

Recently, Andrdquo, Andrdquo; whether it has surpassed the United States, it has once again aroused arguments and evolved into personal attacks. For the author, the current argument of the opponent is not convincing because they have not ordered the most concern of people.An important issue.

In terms of the study, although the research of the Dean of the National Intelligence Research Institute and professor of the National Intelligence Research Institute of Tsinghua University, according to the relevant figures of many authoritative institutions, many people did not recognize their conclusions. The reason is that Hu Angang also acknowledged "There is still a large gap between Andrdquo; but in the academic language of the "world system andrdquo; theory, the United States still enjoys the" hegemonic country Andrdquo; Yu Wei, and China is just an exactly, but it has not yet been not yet.Leaves from Andrdquo;

One thing that must be emphasized first is that if China's per capita is similar to the United States, China's comprehensive national strength will not be equivalent to the United States, but four times the United States. This is not an exaggeration to emphasize it.However, the per capita GDP per capita in China is still only one -sixth in the United States (calculated according to the nominal figures) or one -quarter (calculated according to the purchase power parity), even according to the figures quoted by Hu Angang, China, China, China, ChinaVarious indicators are significantly higher than the United States, and people still tend to underestimate China's strength.

At the same time, the United States is no longer Andrdquo; according to the definition of the world system theory, hegemony must have advantages in the fields of raw materials, industry, circulation, and even financial and scientific research.

In terms of raw materials, the United States has great advantages with its allies, but in terms of oil, there are Russia and Iran's unprepared countries; key raw materials such as iron and copper, and countries such as Brazil are not completely controlled.

In terms of industry, the total scale of China exceeds the sum of the United States and Japan, but if many people have pointed out, there are still big but not strong problems, and the total of the United States, Europe, and Japan is still much greater than China.

In the field of circulation, China has also risen. There are the largest fleets and ports built around the world, but like the United States has repeatedly emphasized and repeatedly emphasized "free navigation andrdquo; in fact the security guarantee of global circulation is still in the hands of the United States.P>

In the financial field, although the four major national banks in China are ranked among the top five in the world, and China also leads the United States in the field of electronic payment, the US dollar is the reserve currency of various countries.In terms of scientific research, although China's incremental growth is equivalent to the United States, the stock is far less.

The above is the general overalls of the main aspects.If we chew carefully, we will feel that the American alliance system does bring great advantages, as is the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and these require military strength as their guarantee.The military advantage of the United States is the basis of its global alliance system, it is necessary to master the division of labor and industrial labor in the world, it is the relying on the US dollar hegemony, and the driving force for investment scientific research.

In other words, in the end, when people evaluate the so -called and "comprehensive national strength andrdquo; and the criteria deep in their hearts are not the total domestic product, but certain specific manufacturing industries; not the US dollar, but the technological strength and military power.Sentences, Hu Angang and the weight of various indicators of "comprehensive national strength andrdquo; and may be necessary to adjust significantly.

But if you imagine a world that is similar to a world war or a comprehensive confrontation like World War I or World War I, maybe Hu Angang is right.

Harvard professor Graham Allison, "Destined For War" published last year, mentioned that Ben Bernanan (former Chairman of the United States) and Mario Draghi, Central Europe,Teacher of the Bank) Teacher, the world -led professor, and the central banker, and former MIT professor Stanley Fischer pointed out that the domestic GDP calculated by Andrdquo;The economic strength andrdquo; and, when the purpose of "comparing military potential assessment, as an approximate value, is the best standard andrdquo; because its Andrd" can measure how many aircraft, missiles, ships, sailors, and sailors can be measured by a country.Pilots, unmanned planes, bases, and other countries that can use their currency to pay their prices with military -related items.Andrdquo;

And the authority of the Institute of International Strategy (IISS) agreed to this year, and pointed out that "China and Russia, the most powerful argument for using purchasing power at parity. Anandrdquo;

Ellison further pointed out that in 1981, Reagan was the president, and "China's economic scale was only 10%of the United States. By 2007, it had increased to 60%. By 2014, it was 100%. By 2017, it was 115%..

If the current trend continues, by 2023, China's economy will be 50%larger than the United States; by 2040, China's economic scale will increase to nearly three times that of the United States, which means that China can be used to affect international relations.Resources will reach three times the United States.Andrdquo;

He also pointed out that And "The United States' view of international order began in the primary position of the United States; why Washington has the dominant military forces in the world today? Because in the past 30 years, it has invested in defense than all competitions in all competitions than all competitions.The opponents are several times more. In 2016, the US defense budget exceeded the sum of the national defense budget of China, Russia, Japan, and Germany.

Why can the United States write the rules of the post -World War II order?Although many Americans want to compliment themselves because they are because of their wisdom, virtue or charm, in fact, the overwhelming power of this country is the decisive factor.Andrdquo;

If the Andrdquo; that is "Powerful ANDRDQUO; and Andrdquo; then and" purchasing power parity andrdquo; and its foundation, and "military power Andrdquo; is its representation.In this way, it is really ash "It feels Andrdquo; to China's" Comprehensive National Power Andrdquo; more than the United States, and finally the two rumored two nuclear -powered electromagnetic ejection large aircraft carriers will begin construction at the same time, relying on will be rely on, and they will be rely on.It is indeed a higher military strength with the United States.

I know that Chinese comprehensive national strength Andrdquo; people who surpass the United States should not like such a conclusion; but in China Andrdquo; Andrdquo;In the case, their noise will eventually strengthen China's willingness to further enhance military strength.

The author is an assistant professor at the University of Science and Technology of Taiwan