Is there a hidden heavy weapon in the decisive battle field of the US -China trade war?

Author: Xue Qi

The U.S. -China trade war has officially started, and smoke has risen.The formation of the two sides seems to have been lined up, but does the two sides have a hidden weapon?Where is the final battle field?

The U.S. -China trade war laid a foreshadowing when running the president of Trump. The official launch was that on March 23, the United States began a 25%and 10%tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on March 23.Many, $ 50 billion (the same below) imposed a 25%tariff from China's imported goods, of which 34 billion products were implemented on July 6, and the Chinese side had retaliated with the same amount of goods on the same day.On April 16, the United States banned export of mobile phone parts to ZTE, and it was suspended after ZTE agrees to pay fines and follows follow -up improvement measures.On July 10, the United States announced that it would expand the scope of tax increases to 200 billion yuan. China said & ldquo; shocked & rdquo; and & ldquo; Yanzheng protested & rdquo; and & ldquo; he had to make necessary countercroof & rdquo;

Import and export trade division, service industry trade and income payment.What is the easiest to get in life in life is imported goods, especially when you see & ldquo; Chinese manufacturing & rdquo;As for everyone at home, when watching Netflix, traveling abroad, depositing remittances at Citi Bank, and enjoying the Sun Opera Troupe, we are actually enjoying the services of people who do not go home, or go abroad, or enjoy the services provided by foreign businessmen or outsiders in China. This is the service trade. This is the service trade.EssenceThe third item in the service trade is also the most important item is to set up a base in direct investment in foreign companies to provide services, generate profits, or invest in securities to make money. This is the payment.At present, the US -China trade war is only at the level of cargo trade.

Last year, US goods imports were 361.9 billion yuan, exports were 1.550.7 billion, and the deficit was 81.2 billion.In this scary number, China contributed 46%, and of course it has become the biggest culprit that caused the US trade deficit.Continue to watch, the United States has 538.1 billion and 780.9 billion exports in service trade and exports, enjoying a surplus of 242.8 billion.In the same year, the investment income from the United States was 920.2 billion yuan, with an expenditure of 688.8 billion, and the surplus was 231.4 billion.The frequent accounts in the balance of international trade revenue and expenditure include these three parts.The United States only looked at the part that was not good for him, and did not look at the part that was good for him, and this part was a place where others could exert force.

There are also strong goods and trade in the United States, such as capital (aircraft), industrial raw materials, parts and cars.Last year, the exports of American agricultural products, food, and beverages also had 132.9 billion, accounting for 8.9%of the total exports, which was equivalent to 157.6 billion car exports.In the service industry, the largest net export project and amount in the United States are 79.5 billion in intelligent wealth, 78.4 billion financial services, 68.5 billion tourism (including education, that is, foreign students), and other business services (R & D, professional and consulting services, etc.)49.7 billion.Among these four projects, if the export accounts for imports to display the intensity of competition in international trade, the strongest competitiveness in the United States is 3.8 times and 2.6 times that of the financial service industry and intellectual wealth.What the United States really wants is self -evident.

On April 3, the United States announced that one week after the tariffs on the China -China planned courses, the leader of the President of Mainland China announced a targeted manner at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum. It will increase open orientation measures in the four markets, namely:1. Significantly relax market access, especially foreign investment restrictions and establishment restrictions in the financial service industry; in the manufacturing industry, the foreign capital restrictions of automobiles, ships and aircraft are specifically mentioned.2. The negative list of foreign investment will be revised in the first half of next year and the former national treatment will be implemented.3. Re -establish the Intellectual Property Office to ensure foreign intellectual property in China.4. Expand import, reduce car tariffs, join the government procurement agreement, hoping that the developed countries have relaxed the export control of high -tech products in China.Except for the last hope, these open measures are almost all of them listened to the United States.

On the next day, the four major measures of Xi, Yi Gang, announced that 12 financial open policies were announced.Those who give them include: cancel the restrictions on the proportion of foreign -funded shareholding of banks and financial asset management companies; securities companies and other capital market institutions relax foreign investment to 51%, and no restrictions after 2021 will provide national treatment of joint venture brokers; significantly expand foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; significantly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign foreign countries; greatly expand foreign countries.Silver business scope, etc.The end of the month was at the end of this month.

On June 28, the Ministry of Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued a measure of foreign Huaihuai and the free trade zone's foreign Huai enrollment measures, that is, the negative list of outsiders' investment, a significant reduction of the list items, and the implementation of the end of this month.

An interesting and very important thing is that President Xi announced in Boao the next day, the People's Daily commented, President Xi ’s four major measures & ldquo; only countries that do not apply to violate world trade norms and launch a trade war on other countries.& rdquo;

Where is the Trump dance sword?Cargo and trade war is a result of double losses and full losses.The price paid by the United States will not be smaller than China, especially in China or even international politics.Investment and foreign investment are the strong points of the United States, which has brought a huge interest in the United States, and China has made clear response accordingly.We can't imagine that in the unprecedented open measures in mainland China, if the United States is excluded, the consequences will be.Riding a tiger is difficult to get.It ’s just how to go down and be beautiful. This is what riding tigers.

(The author is a lecture professor at the Department of Economics of Soochow University)