Under a series of unfavorable factors, the economic growth rate of China reached 5.2%in 2023, achieving a target set by the official at the beginning of the year.Rescue measures to barely support the overall situation.
This is the first time that Li Qiang has announced the annual economic growth data after taking over the Prime Minister of the State Council.Although his term did not officially begin last March, it was also his first annual transcript.In the current environment, it is not easy.However, if you look closely at the specific points under economic data, you can see that the situation is still severe and not optimistic.
In 2023, China's fixed asset investment increased by 3.0%, and infrastructure investment only increased by 5.9%, which was better than expected.Exports only increased by 0.6%, far less than 10.5%of 2022, and if calculated in the US dollar, exports decreased by 4.6%, showing the first decline in 2016.
Consumption has become a bright color in the Chinese economy, and last year's social consumption growth was as high as 7.2%.Unfortunately, the proportion of residents' consumption in China's economy is too small, less than 40 %, far lower than the level of developed countries, and the stimulus is not enough.In order to increase the proportion of consumption to GDP, we must first solve the increase in salary, insufficient social welfare, and employment.The youth employment data that has been suspended for four months has also been announced again. The official modification of the statistical method is that the unemployment rate of young people from 16 to 24 years old is 14.9%. From the highest point announced last year, it is still high.
In summary, China's original three major growth engines: infrastructure investment, real estate (2023 real estate investment growth of 9.6%, commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.5%), and exports.The three engines are gone. "
Looking back at the officially announced 5.2%growth again, if it is replaced with US dollars, it will actually decrease by 0.5%.This is the first time that China has decreased in 29 years of GDP calculated in the US dollar, which represents the gap between the Sino -US economic scale.
House leaks are overnight. The National Bureau of Statistics of China also announced on Wednesday (January 17) that the total population of China in 2023 was 2.08 million to 1.496 million last year.And the decrease was further expanded compared to 850,000 in 2022.
Bad messages overlap, letting China and the Hong Kong stock market fell on Wednesday.The official has held 5.2%of the standards, but the market still cannot see evidence that the Chinese economy will soon improve.Structural problems such as China's insufficient economic domestic demand, pain in the period of economic transformation, the pressure of geopolitics, and lack of confidence make everyone optimistic.
For the crux of the problem, scholars from all parties and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid -December last year have been mentioned, such as "insufficient valid demand", "weak social expectations", "there is a blockage point in the domestic large cycle","The complexity, severeness, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased".
This actually shows that the Chinese economy is in the situation of internal and external difficulties. Due to a variety of reasons such as the low economic revitalization, weak investment and consumption confidence have not been able to boost;The chain and manufacturing friend's outsourcing measures have really hit the advantages of China's exports and weaken China's position in the international supply chain.China was once convinced that foreign capital was inseparable from China, and it turned out that this was not the case.
For the government of China and Li Qiang, the situation in 2024 will only be more difficult.First of all, the real estate industry can not go out for a while and a half, and the "broken chain" and technical blockade adopted by the United States to China is just the beginning. The Red Sea crisis has caused soaring freight rates, which will make China export.The Chinese government sent green industries such as electric vehicles, new energy and materials, and other green industries. This year, it has performed well, but it is difficult to replace the role of real estate in the short term and make up for the gap between economic growth and employment.
For China's economic growth in 2024, most international institutions predict that from 4.5%to 4.9%, which is lower than 2023, and the government will continue to take mild measures to promote growth. For exampleSpecial refinancing bonds continue to support consumption and real estate.
In fact, if China's economic growth can stabilize at about 4.5%this year, it will also have a driving effect on the world economy.Optical analysis believes that consumer confidence and investment will gradually stabilize, and the number of real estate supply and demand will also show that the industry's problems will be digested in two or three years.As for international investment, in addition to some American companies that are directly impacted by Sino -US competition, they are trying to withdraw from. More large foreign investment is in the watching stage. The capital that has invested in China will not be withdrawn, but new investment is not added.
As a large economy, China does have a strong endogenous motivation that makes people unbearable. For enterprises, the difficulty is not a big problem.Doubt, let investors go.Some people's inner questions are: Does the Chinese government still believe in the market economy?Some merchants said privately: "The economic development problems can be dealt with. It is just a few years, but it is difficult to say that the policy is uncertain. How can we predict it?"
