At the moment when the Harbin Ice and Snow Economy revived China's consumption confidence, a report from Bloomberg Thursday (January 4) pulled people back to the cold reality.
Bloomberg News found that the salary reduction of employees in 38 major cities in China reached a record high. In the fourth quarter of 2023, it fell by 1.3%year -on -year to 10,420 yuan (RMB, the same below, Singapore 1981)The decline in consecutive quarters in a row is also the longest decline in data since 2016.
The salary of the digital technology industry has decreased greater.According to the 2023 workplace insight released by Lagou recruitment and Zhihu on December 27 last year, the average monthly salary of the digital technology field in 2023 was 13,840 yuan, a 7%decrease from 2022.
At the end of the year and early years when everyone is looking forward to promotion and salary increase, the above numbers are unavoidable. The new round of salary reduction is coming?
"Salary reduction" era
Since the epidemic of crown disease, China has experienced several rounds of salary reduction.As early as July 2021, the news of Guangdong civil servants had been reported on social platforms such as Weibo.
In June of the following year, the teacher in Shandong, a major province, was reported to be reduced in salary, and even required to refund the salary of tens of thousands of yuan.The strong financial Shanghai also reported the salary reduction of civil servants. The annual salary at the level at the level was rumored to be reduced from 350,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan, and the annual salary of the chiefs of the chief science and civil servants was cut from 240,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan.
The financial industry at the top of the salary pyramid also ushered in salary reduction.According to the statistics of the First Financial and Economics, the human assembly cost of 48 securities firms in China in the first half of 2022 decreased 11.3%compared with the previous year, and the total salary reduction exceeded 10 billion yuan.
After the CPC Central Discipline Inspection Commission proposed to break the wrong ideas such as "financial elite" and "only money" last year, according to Bloomberg, CITIC Securities reduced the basic salary of some bankers by 15%, and CICC will even be a senior investment bank.The redness of the home in 2022 was reduced by more than 40%.
In addition to salary reduction, the financial industry also set off a wave of "reverse salary" to employees.China Merchants Bank issued an announcement on December 28 last year that the bank's total amount of performance compensation was 58.24 million yuan in 2022.
The real estate industry that is deeply trapped in the debt crisis also appears salary reduction and layoffs.First Finance reported in 2022 that many housing companies' salaries have been cut compared to their peak periods, and even several employees of real estate companies cannot pay their salary.
According to incomplete statistics from titanium media, from 2022 to the first half of 2023, dozens of housing companies have a total of 260,000 people, including more than 50%of the layoffs such as Jinke and Sunshine City.
In recent years, the rapidly growing digital technology industry and new energy industry, it is difficult to escape salary reduction.The above -mentioned data report data from the 2023 workplace insight shows that the average monthly salary of the digital technology field in 2023 decreased by 7% year -on -year.Among them, the monthly salary of technical positions decreased by 12% year -on -year, and design positions decreased by 18% year -on -year.
Data from Caixin Think Tank shows that the average salary of new economic fields such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy and wind energy in December last year was 13,758 yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 2.3%.
In the past two months, medical staff in Yiyang, Henan, Ruzhou, Henan, Sichuan Suining and other places for salary incidents were revealed to the public.
Civil servants have continued.According to the Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily report on December 28 last year, a civil servant from the Beijing affiliated organs said that although the basic salary has not changed this year, various subsidies and bonuses have been reduced by tens of thousands.Do "to remove the" unreasonable "benefits before.
Chinese officials held a national fiscal work conference in Beijing last December, proposing "stubbornly, the concept of tightness of the trees, and improving the tight day system."From this point of view, the tide of salary reduction of civil servants who entered the fourth year may not end.
After salary reduction
The reduction in salary directly affects consumption, and also makes "consumption downgrade" a new wave.
Eli Friedman, a professor at the School of Industry and Labor Relations of Cornell University, pointed out in an interview with Bloomberg that if the salary of white -collar workers decreases, it is"Quite worrying signs."
Friedman said that in order to increase domestic consumption, individuals and families need more money to be more confident in the future.
Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia -Pacific economist in French Foreign Trade Bank, also said that unless the disposable income has increased steadily, China's consumption will not improve quickly.
However, insufficient confidence caused by revenue is spreading.After the Chinese Consumer Confidence Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, it has maintained a high level of more than 110 for many years. In April 2022, it fell sharply to less than 90, reaching the lowest level since 2010.
A survey released by the People's Bank of China last June also showed that the Chinese people's confidence index on the income in the second quarter of last year decreased, showing that the revenue of the storage households became more pessimistic about their income.
Liu Yuanchun, an economic consultant of the Chinese government and the president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out at the China Macroeconomic Forum in May last year that it must attach great importance to the "salary reduction" formed by various industries.
Liu Yuanchun believes that after the formation of a trend of salary reduction, it is very unfavorable to the restoration of expectations and consumption. "We cannot let this" price reduction -revenue decrease "spiral mechanism formed".
But from the largest decline in the three years in November last year, the National Resident Consumer Price Index (CPI) seemed to have begun to appear.The decline in CPI shows that the pressure on China ’s shrinkage is increased. Tong contraction means that residents will curb consumption. Enterprises will reduce production investment and reduce employees, thereby caught a more cautious cycle of consumer consumption.
964 million people have a monthly salary of less than 2,000 yuan
The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced in March last year that the average annual salary of employment in urban non -private units nationwide in 2022 was 114,029 yuan, an increase of 7,192 yuan over the previous year, and the actual increase in price factors increased by 4.6 %; urban private units employed employment employmentThe average annual salary of personnel was 65,237 yuan, an increase of 3.7%.
According to the official website of the Chinese Social Security Society, the employment income distribution of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Consumer Department with the Beijing Normal University China Interest allocation Research Institute released the annual report of China's revenue distribution 2021.
The report shows that China has a population of 39.1%The monthly income is less than 100,000 yuan, the number of people's population is 547 million, and the population with a monthly income of 1,000 to 1090 yuan is 52.5 million.%.This is in line with the statement of China's late Prime Minister Li Keqiang in 2020 "600 million people's monthly income of about 1,000 yuan".
In addition to 364 million people with monthly income from 1090 to 2000 yuan, China's monthly income with a population of less than 2,000 yuan reaches 964 million.
Li Xunlei, the vice chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, issued a document on December 25 last year in the First Financial Economics, quoting the data of "China’ s 964 million people's monthly income of less than 2,000 yuan ", which caused heated discussion among Chinese netizens.This article was removed the next day.
Li Xunlei said in the article that the added value of China's manufacturing industry has accounted for 30%of the world's, and the population accounts for 17.5%of the world's, but residents' consumption only accounts for about 13%of the world, which means that overcapacity may become the normal state in the future.Therefore, the most effective means of expanding domestic demand are expanding consumption, not expanding investment.
In the context of the continued tide of salary reduction and nearly 70 % of the national population of less than 2,000 yuan, it is not easy to restore confidence and drive consumption.But as the publisher of the report mentioned above, "this data is the most realistic national conditions in China."Facing reality and actively responding, the Chinese economy may usher in a new year.
