Country Garden, known as the "first housing company in the universe", failed to pay two two 22.5 million US dollars (S $ 30.63 million) on time on the 7th of this month, shocked four.Because it is still in the 30 -day width period of interest, strictly speaking, Country Garden is not a breach of contract, but it is already on the edge of the cliff of breach of contract.
When people are still talking about whether Country Garden will become another falling Evergrande, another Chinese real estate company Yuanyang Group has failed to pay 20.94 million US dollars in debt during the wide limit, which led to a defaulted incident. This month, this monthOn the morning of the 14th, trading was suspended on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Different from Evergrande and Country Garden, the Yangyang Group has the background of central enterprises.Even the ocean can't hold it, it is more clear how deep the dilemma of the Chinese real estate market is.In the three years of deleveraging and liabilities that lasted for three years in China, this industry is at stake. The question mark in many people's minds is: who is the next one?
The financial crisis of well -known real estate companies is only one of the bad news of China's economy for more than more than this week, but the real estate industry has touched many industries upstream and downstream, and involves millions of buyers' vital interests.If the tide of thunderous is one after another, it will affect the stability of China's financial system and local finances, which will have a profound impact on the overall economy.
Online legends, Zhongrong International Trust, a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Group, is expected to suspend the redemption of 350 billion yuan (S $ 65.5 billion) trust products due to investment in real estate.
In the past few days, whether the government should use the "Country Garden", and public opinion has their own words.The netizens were indignant to think that housing companies have made a lot of money for many years, and they should let them die for themselves.Experts are worried that if the real estate market crashes, it will cause investors to completely lose confidence in Chinese real estate. This risk will eventually spread to other fields, allowing the Chinese economy to repeat Japan in the 1990s.Then impact the residential liabilities, the economy has fallen into a long -term sluggish.
In terms of Country Garden's situation, it is really regrettable.Country Garden, founded by migrant workers Yang Guoqiang, has always been considered the industry's gifted students, and the financial situation is still stable until the first half of 2022.The "three red lines" set by the Chinese government in 2020 (the asset -liability ratio of the assets after excluding the pre -collection cannot be greater than 70%; the net liabilities cannot be greater than 100%; the cash cannot be less than the short debt), and Country Garden has been in 2022.All pass.
But Country Garden's financial difficulties have been revealed in the second half of last year. By July this year, the ominous signal has been very obvious, including Li Changjiang, the president of Country Garden service, reduced its holdings of more than 28 million Hong Kong dollars; Country Garden will focus on the "four guarantees" -"Inspection of diplomatic relations, assets, security, and credit" silently reduced to the "two insurances", leaving only "insurance transit" and "security security".
In late July, Morgan Chase and Moody's rating have been lowered. About a week later, Country Garden Chairman Yang Huiyan suddenly announced that he would serve 20%of the equity, that is, 6.4 billion yuan to donate to the public welfare foundation created by Yang Guoqiang.In the first half of the year, net loss was about 45 billion yuan to 55 billion yuan ... Under dense news, Country Garden's stock price has now fallen to lower than HK $ 1, becoming the "immortal stock" called Hong Kong people.Since this year, Country Garden's stock price has fallen 69%.
Paradoxie is that as the price of Country Garden bonds fell below 10%of the face value, some buyers began to be interested in these bonds.There are also a few analysts speculating from the perspective of conspiracy theory that although Country Garden's current liabilities are 1.43 trillion yuan and the asset -liability ratio reaches 82.3%, it has not reached the point where it is not available.Essence
This possibility cannot be ruled out, but it cannot be denied that the main reason for many Chinese real estate companies such as Country Garden is the structural problem of the Chinese real estate industry itself. The original business model is unsustainable.
Evergrande models are characterized by high leverage and high debt; Country Garden is a more exquisite high turnover -quickly opens the land and sells it to make the funds quickly return.Chinese real estate companies generally adopt this method: a large amount of capital and hoarding land, and the prices of residential and land are "only rising and not declined", but once the house prices continue to rise, or the financing cost is too high, and the financing is blocked, the entire model cannotcontinue.
Over the years, there have been very few investment channels for the Chinese people. The hard -earned money of ordinary people can only invest in a few areas such as real estate, which supports the myth of "only rising" in house prices.Once the economic downward, expected decline, or housing prices have greatly exceeded the affordable range of people who just need, real estate sales will fall sharply, and myths will be shattered, just like now.
The depreciation trend of the RMB since this year has also led to the increasing financing cost of external debt in housing companies, and the pressure of repayment has intensified.
Will the Chinese government shot to save these endangered housing companies?The possibility is low. What the Chinese government may do is to relax the real estate regulation on the one hand.Water will inevitably affect social stability.But the Chinese government may not shot to save individual housing companies, and it is unable to save it.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has not mentioned "housing and living will not be fried". Instead, it proposes to "adapt to a new situation in which the real estate market supply and demand relationship has undergone major changes, and adjust the optimization of real estate policies in a timely manner", which indicates that "houses do not stir -fry"It is already a past.
But whether it is China's housing prices or real estate industry, it will not return, because the era of high economic growth has ended, and real estate in many cities has even excess.In this case, "Country Garden Moment" should be the beginning of the transformation of the real estate industry business model. Housing companies must change the old methods and explore new models. Some housing companies may survive and slowly digest risk.In recent years, China's risks have actually affected economic growth, and other adverse economic factors have occurred at the same time, which has caused many attachment damage; it is a blessing to not detonate systemic risks.
